9013 Highway 63 E · South Toledo Bend, TX 75932

$169,400

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,052 sqft · Manufactured public records · 45 Days on market

Built 1998 5.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.2/30.0
• Appreciation +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Escape to the peace and privacy of country living with this spacious 3-bedroom, 3-bath double wide mobile home situated on 5 beautiful acres just a short drive to Toledo Bend Lake! This property offers the perfect blend of comfort and outdoor lifestyle, making it ideal as a full-time residence, weekend getaway, or investment opportunity. Inside, you'll find a functional layout with generous living spaces, a well-appointed kitchen, and three full bathrooms—perfect for accommodating family and guests. Step outside to relax on the beautiful wrap around porch, garden, or simple take in the natural surroundings. For those looking to expand, an additional adjoining 19 acres is available for

Key facts

• Wrap around porch
• Adjoining 19 acres
• 5 beautiful acres

Tags

• DOUBLE WIDE MOBILE HOME
• 5 BEAUTIFUL ACRES
• WRAP AROUND PORCH
• ADJOINING 19 ACRES
• NEAR TOLEDO BEND LAKE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Private well water
• Home design: Manufactured home; Residential property
• Construction: Wood siding
• Exterior features: Metal roof; Shed(s); 5-acre parcel

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric heating; Central air conditioning; Window unit(s)
• Interior features: Walk-in closets; Skylights; Wood-burning fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $90 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $142k (16.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $142k (16.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 2.4% in South Toledo Bend — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#1,431 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, housing D, amenities F.
• Burkeville ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #966 of 1,141 in TX (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Burkeville School (math 27% / reading 27%, 229 students, 86% FRL) — zoned schools average 86% FRL vs 65% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (8.5% local appreciation)).
• Newton County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (8.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $141,890 (16.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.27%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.49% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.70×
• Total profit: $80,820
• Equity at exit: $134,416

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.86×
• Total profit: $230,484
• Equity at exit: $272,462

Cash invested: $47,432 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75932

• Home prices YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 62
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,419 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$888
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $865/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$298
• Net cashflow: $90

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,305

Max offer price $169,400

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $186	-5% $138	+0% $90	+5% $42	+10% $-6
Rent	-10% $-22	-5% $34	+0% $90	+5% $146	+10% $202
Rate	-1.0pp $175	-0.5pp $133	base $90	+0.5pp $46	+1.0pp $1

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,350
• Closing costs: $5,082
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $169,400 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $169,400 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,400 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,400 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,400 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,400 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $169,400 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $169,400 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,400 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $169,400 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,400 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $169,400 Active 29 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $169,400 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,400 Active 26 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,400 Active 25 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,400 Active 24 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,400 Active 23 DOM
18. 2026-04-03
    listed $169,400 Active 975-char remark
19. 2017-06-20
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $865 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,100 · $258/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,235/yr (+$186/mo · 258.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,027
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,489
• − Property taxes: −$865
• − Insurance: −$847
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,362
• − Management: −$1,362
• − Depreciation: −$4,928
• Taxable loss: −$1,827
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$438
• After-tax cash flow: $1,517/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Burkeville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812150
• Math proficiency: 30% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $38,753
• Composite: 29.92/100
• National rank: #11672
• State rank: #966 of 1141 in TX

Livability — South Toledo Bend

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #1431
• US rank: #24460

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing D Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,339

Population outlook (Newton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,123 people
• By 2030: 12,567 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 11,431 · -12.9%
• By 2050: 10,393 · -20.8%
• By 2075: 8,230 · -37.3%
• By 2100: 6,038 · -54.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Black 10% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Hungarian 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Newton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.6) · D 16.6% · R 83.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.4pp toward R · 2008: -32.2pp · 2024: -66.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.6 2020: R+60.9 2016: R+49.5 2012: R+43.3 2008: R+32.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.49%
• Current HPI: 214.4428
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Listed $169,400 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2017-06-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $865 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.