Is The Blue Jay II Plan in Willis, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 3.9% cap rate and $-496/mo modeled cash flow at a $209,990 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for The Blue Jay II Plan?

The modeled cap rate is 3.9% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,567/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

F Composite 26.92

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Cash flow +5.9/30.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Livability +3.1/5.0
Schools +3.0/10.0
Rent growth +2.0/5.0
1% rule +1.2/10.0
DSCR +0.2/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$209,990

The Blue Jay II Plan · Willis, TX 77318

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,450 sqft · SingleFamily · 244 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 7% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

The efficient Blue Jay II plan offers three bedrooms, two full baths, and a large open-concept kitchen, dining, and family room. The owner's suite is located at the rear of the home for maximum privacy, with an ensuite bathroom and many opportunities to customize it based on your individual preferences. Add a fireplace in the family room for a cozy space to entertain and unwind. A covered rear patio completes the Blue Jay II and creates a backyard perfect for all of your outdoor living space needs.

Key facts

Open-concept kitchen
Covered rear patio
Owner's suite

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-496 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $179k (14.7% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $157k (25.4% below list).
Recommended offer: $157k (25.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

Location reads 62/100 on livability (#933 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: C C Hardy El (math 32% / reading 29%, grade F, #2,464 of 4,322 statewide, top 58%, 752 students, 83% FRL); Lynn Lucas Middle (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 971 students, 74% FRL); Willis H S (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,521 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 56% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 1718 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 84d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 59% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 244 days — a 12% lower offer ($185k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $156,662 (25.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 244 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.62% ✗
Cap rate: 3.92%
Cash-on-cash: -8.47%
DSCR: 0.62
GRM: 13.3

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $250,842
List price: $209,990
Delta: -16.29%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12359 Sunset Canyon Way	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,427 (-2%)	7mo	$248,887	$174	79
9786 Enclave Ridge Rd	0.21mi	3/2.5	1,566 (+8%)	1mo	$258,205	$165	74
9654 Live Oak Trl	0.39mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,521 (+5%)	9mo	$220,000	$145	61
12626 Woodcreek Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-10%)	11mo	$315,000	$242	60
9651 Oak Hill Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-11%)	18mo	$180,000	$139	47
13065 Aspen Way Ct	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	20mo	$159,000	$118	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -34.6%
Equity multiple: -0.09×
Total profit: $-76,798
Equity at exit: $37,401

10-year hold

IRR: -67.3%
Equity multiple: -0.78×
Total profit: $-125,190
Equity at exit: $21,688

Cash invested: $70,236 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 51 active · 17 under contract
Months of supply: 25.5 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $249,500 ($167/sqft)
Median days on market: 68 d
This list price: 12% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +3.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77318

Home prices YoY: -32.7%
Rents YoY: -2.1%
Active inventory: 1718
Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,567 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,315
Tax est. 1.5%: −$314 /mo · $3,763/yr
Insurance: −$105
HOA: −$0
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$329
Net cashflow: $-496

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,194

Max offer price $179,087

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-323	-5% $-409	+0% $-496	+5% $-583	+10% $-669
Rent	-10% $-620	-5% $-558	+0% $-496	+5% $-434	+10% $-372
Rate	-1.0pp $-370	-0.5pp $-432	base $-496	+0.5pp $-561	+1.0pp $-627

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $62,711
Closing costs: $7,525
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9700 FM 1097 Rd W Willis, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0	1115	$1,501	$1.35	1d	10	0.21mi
9706 Farm to Market 1097 Willis, TX	2.0	2.0	1068	$1,030	$0.96	184d	1	0.27mi
9706 Farm to Market 1097 Willis, TX	2.0	2.0	1068	$1,030	$0.96	10d	1	0.27mi
9706 Farm to Market 1097 Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,125	$0.91	1d	1	0.27mi
505 Hines Ave Apt B Willis, TX	3.0	2.5	1665	$1,500	$0.90	84d	1	0.43mi
501 Hines Ave Unit B Willis, TX	2.0	2.5	1283	$1,450	$1.13	84d	1	0.44mi
300 S Kennedy St Willis, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1087	$1,799	$1.65	0d	40	0.70mi
104 Turner Dr Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1153	$1,700	$1.47	184d	1	0.75mi
314 Harbor Bend Ct Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,800	$1.37	184d	1	0.89mi
207 W Mink St Willis, TX	2.0	1.0	1066	$1,599	$1.50	127d	1	1.03mi
100 Lamar St Willis, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	165d	1	1.03mi
100 Lamar St Apt 14 Willis, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	10d	1	1.03mi
104 Runners ST Unit B Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1213	$1,700	$1.40	145d	1	1.10mi
104 Runnels St Unit B Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1213	$1,700	$1.40	135d	1	1.16mi
104 Lindley Dr Unit A Willis, TX	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,250	$1.04	10d	1	1.25mi
104 Lindley Dr Unit A Willis, TX	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,250	$1.04	14d	1	1.25mi
101 Will St Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	958	$1,345	$1.40	152d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 50 events

2026-11-08

days on market $209,990 Active 244 DOM
2026-11-07

days on market $209,990 Active 243 DOM
2026-11-06

days on market $209,990 Active 242 DOM
2026-11-05

days on market $209,990 Active 241 DOM
2026-11-04

days on market $209,990 Active 240 DOM
2026-11-02

days on market $209,990 Active 238 DOM
2026-11-01

days on market $209,990 Active 237 DOM
2026-10-31

days on market $209,990 Active 236 DOM
2026-10-30

days on market $209,990 Active 235 DOM
2026-10-29

days on market $209,990 Active 234 DOM
2026-10-28

days on market $209,990 Active 233 DOM
2026-10-27

days on market $209,990 Active 232 DOM
2026-10-26

days on market $209,990 Active 231 DOM
2026-10-26

days on market $209,990 Active 230 DOM
2026-10-24

days on market $209,990 Active 229 DOM
2026-10-23

days on market $209,990 Active 228 DOM
2026-10-22

days on market $209,990 Active 227 DOM
2026-10-21

days on market $209,990 Active 226 DOM
2026-10-20

days on market $209,990 Active 225 DOM
2026-10-19

days on market $209,990 Active 224 DOM
2026-10-18

days on market $209,990 Active 223 DOM
2026-10-17

days on market $209,990 Active 222 DOM
2026-10-16

days on market $209,990 Active 221 DOM
2026-10-15

days on market $209,990 Active 220 DOM
2026-10-14

days on market $209,990 Active 219 DOM
2026-10-13

days on market $209,990 Active 218 DOM
2026-10-12

days on market $209,990 Active 217 DOM
2026-10-11

days on market $209,990 Active 216 DOM
2026-10-10

days on market $209,990 Active 215 DOM
2026-10-09

days on market $209,990 Active 214 DOM
2026-10-08

days on market $209,990 Active 213 DOM
2026-10-07

days on market $209,990 Active 212 DOM
2026-10-06

days on market $209,990 Active 211 DOM
2026-10-05

days on market $209,990 Active 210 DOM
2026-10-04

days on market $209,990 Active 209 DOM
2026-10-04

days on market $209,990 Active 208 DOM
2026-10-02

days on market $209,990 Active 207 DOM
2026-10-01

days on market $209,990 Active 206 DOM
2026-09-30

days on market $209,990 Active 205 DOM
2026-09-29

days on market $209,990 Active 204 DOM
2026-09-27

days on market $209,990 Active 202 DOM
2026-09-26

days on market $209,990 Active 201 DOM
2026-09-25

days on market $209,990 Active 200 DOM
2026-09-24

days on market $209,990 Active 199 DOM
2026-09-23

days on market $209,990 Active 198 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $209,990 Active 197 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $209,990 Active 196 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $209,990 Active 195 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $209,990 Active 194 DOM
2026-09-18

days on market $209,990 Active 193 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $18,799
− Mortgage interest: −$14,051
− Property taxes: −$3,763
− Insurance: −$1,254
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,504
− Management: −$1,504
− Depreciation: −$7,297
Taxable loss: −$10,574

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,538
After-tax cash flow: $-3,413/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,250–$21,750 screening

This single-family home in Willis, TX, is in good condition with a good exterior, interior, and landscaping. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for both resale and rental value through minor updates and improvements.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and increase both resale and rental value. ↑
Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters. ↑
Both Adding a fireplace in the family room — A fireplace can create a cozy atmosphere and increase the home's appeal for both buyers and renters. ↑
Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers or renters. ↑
Both Adding a smart home system — A smart home system can increase the home's value by making it more energy-efficient and convenient for potential buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 30/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary C C Hardy El F TX #2,464/4,322 Nat'l #26,279/41,679 Middle Lynn Lucas Middle F TX #1,156/1,662 Nat'l #9,659/14,009 High Willis H S F TX #1,029/1,632 Nat'l #10,333/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Willis ISD
NCES district ID: 4845900
Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
Median HH income: $57,828
Composite: 32.32/100
National rank: #5746
State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Willis

Score: 62/100
State rank: #933
US rank: #16579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: Willis, TX
County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
City population: 38,421
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 20,792
Household income: $92,415
Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
Severe rent burden: 0% of renters

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 713,896 people
By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -114.58%
Current HPI: 236.256
Rent YoY: ▼ -2.09%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-7.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

2026-05-14 Price Changed $199,990 Zillow
2026-05-04 Price Changed $218,990 Zillow
2026-03-09 Listed $215,990 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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