855 15th W · Lakehills, TX 78063

$99,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,182 sqft · SingleFamily · 503 Days on market

Built 1960 Poor condition 0.31 ac lot $85/sqft · 56% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

PROPERTY IN LAKEHILLS! This home needs some repairs but has lots of potential. It is located on a 13,500 sqft. lot that offers both ample yard space and value. The location is down the road from Medina Lake and less than an hour from Downtown San Antonio. Here you can enjoy convenient access to PR 37 and TX-16, there are also tons of great eateries, local parks such as the Medina Lake Park, and supermarkets. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today for more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

Key facts

• 13
• Medina lake park
• 500 sqft lot

Tags

• 13
• 500 SQFT LOT
• MEDINA LAKE
• LOCAL PARKS
• MEDINA LAKE PARK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $100k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $119 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 2.2% in Lakehills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#963 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Bandera ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #500 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hill Country El (math 47% / reading 46%, grade D-, #1,080 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 483 students, 62% FRL); Bandera Middle (math 26% / reading 40%, grade F, #930 of 1,662 statewide, top 57%, 555 students, 56% FRL); Bandera H S (math 22% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,002 of 1,632 statewide, top 62%, 713 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: 271 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6 units permitted in Bandera County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 503 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,999 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 503 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.09%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $225,552
• List price: $99,999
• Delta: -55.66%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1021 13th	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+14%)	8mo	$250,000	$186	66
2200 8th St	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-2%)	17mo	$275,000	$239	62
447 24th St W	0.37mi	3/1.0	1,120 (-5%)	16mo	$125,000	$112	57
686 Elmhurst	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,350 (+14%)	10mo	$274,000	$203	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-8,630
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $2,281
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78063

• Home prices YoY: -31.6%
• Active inventory: 271
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,025 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,500/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$215
• Net cashflow: $119

Break-even live

Break-even rent $875

Max offer price $99,999

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $188	-5% $153	+0% $119	+5% $84	+10% $50
Rent	-10% $38	-5% $78	+0% $119	+5% $159	+10% $200
Rate	-1.0pp $169	-0.5pp $144	base $119	+0.5pp $93	+1.0pp $66

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10685 Park Road 37 Unit D Lakehills, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,025	$0.84	16d	1	0.72mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $99,999 Active 503 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,999 Active 500 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,999 Active 499 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,999 Active 498 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,999 Active 497 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,999 Active 495 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,999 Active 491 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,999 Active 489 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $99,999 Active 486 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,999 Active 485 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,999 Active 484 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,999 Active 483 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,999 Active 482 DOM
14. 2025-02-03
    listed $99,999 Active 633-char remark

    Show marketing remark (633 chars)

    PROPERTY IN LAKEHILLS! This home needs some repairs but has lots of potential. It is located on a 13,500 sqft. lot that offers both ample yard space and value. The location is down the road from Medina Lake and less than an hour from Downtown San Antonio. Here you can enjoy convenient access to PR 37 and TX-16, there are also tons of great eateries, local parks such as the Medina Lake Park, and supermarkets. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today for more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 62% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,300
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,601
• − Property taxes: −$1,500
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$984
• − Management: −$984
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable loss: −$179
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$43
• After-tax cash flow: $1,467/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and updates to bring it up to a livable condition. The home is in poor condition, with significant damage to the kitchen, bathrooms, exterior, interior walls, roof, HVAC, and landscaping. The highest-ROI updates include exterior siding repair and replacement, interior wall repair and painting, roof repair and replacement, HVAC/mechanical replacement, and landscaping and yard maintenance.

Repairs flagged

• Major kitchen flooring — The kitchen flooring is completely destroyed and needs replacement.
• Major bathroom flooring — The bathroom flooring is completely destroyed and needs replacement.
• Major exterior siding — The exterior siding is peeling and damaged, with visible rot and structural issues.
• Major interior walls — The interior walls are bare and show signs of damage and neglect.
• Major roof — The roof appears to be in poor condition, with visible damage and potential water infiltration.
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — The HVAC and mechanical systems are completely destroyed and need replacement.
• Major landscaping — The landscaping is overgrown and in poor condition, with debris scattered throughout the yard.

Value-add opportunities

• Both exterior siding repair and replacement — Repairing and replacing the exterior siding will improve the home's curb appeal and increase its resale and rental value.
• Both interior wall repair and painting — Repairing and painting the interior walls will improve the home's appearance and increase its resale and rental value.
• Both roof repair and replacement — Repairing and replacing the roof will prevent water damage and improve the home's structural integrity, increasing its resale and rental value.
• Both HVAC/mechanical replacement — Replacing the HVAC and mechanical systems will improve the home's comfort and energy efficiency, increasing its resale and rental value.
• Both landscaping and yard maintenance — Landscaping and maintaining the yard will improve the home's curb appeal and increase its resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen flooring · The kitchen flooring is completely destroyed and needs replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathroom flooring · The bathroom flooring is completely destroyed and needs replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · The exterior siding is peeling and damaged, with visible rot and structural issues.	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls · The interior walls are bare and show signs of damage and neglect.	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · The roof appears to be in poor condition, with visible damage and potential water infiltration.	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · The HVAC and mechanical systems are completely destroyed and need replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · The landscaping is overgrown and in poor condition, with debris scattered throughout the yard.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 7 items		$105,000–350,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both exterior siding repair and replacement — Repairing and replacing the exterior siding will improve the home's curb appeal and increase its resale and rental value. ↑
• Both interior wall repair and painting — Repairing and painting the interior walls will improve the home's appearance and increase its resale and rental value. ↑
• Both roof repair and replacement — Repairing and replacing the roof will prevent water damage and improve the home's structural integrity, increasing its resale and rental value. ↑
• Both HVAC/mechanical replacement — Replacing the HVAC and mechanical systems will improve the home's comfort and energy efficiency, increasing its resale and rental value. ↑
• Both landscaping and yard maintenance — Landscaping and maintaining the yard will improve the home's curb appeal and increase its resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bandera ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809360
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $48,771
• Composite: 30.61/100
• National rank: #6194
• State rank: #500 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lakehills

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #963
• US rank: #17024

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakehills, TX
• City population: 10,594
• Population (ZIP): 10,594

Population outlook (Bandera County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,614 people
• By 2030: 23,102 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 23,489 · +3.9%
• By 2050: 23,264 · +2.9%
• By 2075: 23,607 · +4.4%
• By 2100: 22,265 · -1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Romanian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Bandera

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.9) · D 18.6% · R 80.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.5pp toward R · 2008: -50.4pp · 2024: -61.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.9 2020: R+59.4 2016: R+63.0 2012: R+59.0 2008: R+50.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.38%
• Current HPI: 189.1086
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-02-03 Listed $99,999 HARMLS