202 Stag Rd · Springfield, GA 31329

$225,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,294 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 189 Days on market

Built 2007 10,454 sqft lot $174/sqft · at area comps Est $226k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.7/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3 Bedroom, 2 Bathroom Home! Featuring a versatile bonus room perfect for an office, playroom, gym room, or guest space. Step outside to a fully private and fenced backyard, ideal for gatherings or cozy evenings around a firepit. Equipped with a new backyard patio, perfect for grilling! Schedule your appointment today!

Key facts

• New backyard patio
• 0.24 acre lot
• Garage

Tags

• PRIVATE FENCED BACKYARD
• NEW BACKYARD PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-55 ($-659/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $215k (4.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (14.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $193k (14.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.2% in Springfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#116 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Effingham County (rural): math 49% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #16 of 174 in GA (top 9%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 112 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 53% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 836 units permitted in Effingham County in 2024 (46 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Effingham County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 189 days — a 12% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $192k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 95% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,206 (14.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 189 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.05%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $225,956
• List price: $225,000
• Delta: -0.42%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
210 Stag Rd	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,402 (+8%)	3mo	$284,000	$203	80
107 Mary St	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-3%)	2mo	$280,000	$222	64
145 New Stillwell Rd	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,204 (-7%)	10mo	$299,000	$248	61
106 Old Stillwell Rd	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,270 (-2%)	8mo	$230,000	$181	61
214 Stag Rd	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,482 (+14%)	14mo	$285,000	$192	59
101 Fox St	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,326 (+2%)	23mo	$285,000	$215	58
605 Mccall Rd	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,300 (+0%)	9mo	$265,000	$204	52
116 Old Stillwell Rd	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+9%)	13mo	$350,000	$248	47
302 Tunnel Rd	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,377 (+6%)	9mo	$305,000	$221	46
106 Laurel Point Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,170 (-10%)	23mo	$230,575	$197	46
147 Oakwood Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,150 (-11%)	22mo	$250,000	$217	39
421 Mccall Rd	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+9%)	16mo	$355,000	$252	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-39,913
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-39,075
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31329

• Home prices YoY: -14.7%
• Active inventory: 112
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,932 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$308 /mo · $3,691/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $-55

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,002

Max offer price $215,297

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1018 Poplar Ct Unit A Springfield, GA	2.0	2.0	1061	$1,450	$1.37	44d	1	0.16mi
107 Fox St Springfield, GA	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,850	$1.28	23d	1	0.43mi
107 Lord Effingham Way Springfield, GA	3.0	2.0	1733	$1,985	$1.15	23d	1	0.44mi
107 Lord Effingham Way Springfield, GA	3.0	2.0	1733	$1,985	$1.15	44d	1	0.44mi
108 Saint Phillip Way Springfield, GA	3.0	2.0	1565	$1,970	$1.26	23d	1	0.47mi
108 Saint Phillip Way Springfield, GA	3.0	2.0	1565	$1,970	$1.26	44d	1	0.47mi
102 Saint Matthew Way Springfield, GA	4.0	2.0	1830	$2,090	$1.14	23d	1	0.47mi
141 Oakwood Dr Springfield, GA	3.0	2.0	1094	$1,700	$1.55	44d	1	0.48mi
104 Overstreet Way Springfield, GA	3.0	2.0	1475	$1,875	$1.27	14d	1	0.56mi
107 Ebenezer Bluff Way Springfield, GA	3.0	2.0	1565	$2,100	$1.34	44d	1	0.58mi
129 Overstreet Way Springfield, GA	3.0	2.0	1475	$1,905	$1.29	44d	1	0.64mi
309 E 3rd St Springfield, GA	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	44d	1	0.77mi
402 E 3rd St Unit B Springfield, GA	2.0	2.0	925	$1,300	$1.41	23d	1	0.80mi
301 E Second St Springfield, GA	3.0	1.5	980	$1,295	$1.32	44d	1	0.82mi
102 Cook St Springfield, GA	3.0	2.0	1260	$2,049	$1.63	14d	1	0.90mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 189 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 188 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 187 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 186 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $225,000 Active 184 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 183 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $225,000 Active 181 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 180 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,000 Active 179 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $225,000 Active 178 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $225,000 Active 175 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,000 Active 174 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 Active 173 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 172 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    price $225,000 Active 171 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $240,000 Active 171 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $240,000 Active 170 DOM
18. 2026-04-12
    price $240,000 328-char remark

    Show marketing remark (328 chars)

    Charming 3 Bedroom, 2 Bathroom Home! Featuring a versatile bonus room perfect for an office, playroom, gym room, or guest space. Step outside to a fully private and fenced backyard, ideal for gatherings or cozy evenings around a firepit. Equipped with a new backyard patio, perfect for grilling! Schedule your appointment today!

19. 2025-11-04
    listed $250,000 Active 328-char remark

    Show marketing remark (328 chars)

    Charming 3 Bedroom, 2 Bathroom Home! Featuring a versatile bonus room perfect for an office, playroom, gym room, or guest space. Step outside to a fully private and fenced backyard, ideal for gatherings or cozy evenings around a firepit. Equipped with a new backyard patio, perfect for grilling! Schedule your appointment today!

20. 2022-06-09
    soldstatus $192,000
21. 2022-05-06
    listed $169,000
22. 2022-05-06
    listed $169,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,691 · $308/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,691 · $308/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 95% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,185
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$3,691
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,855
• − Management: −$1,855
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$4,490
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,078
• After-tax cash flow: $418/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Effingham County
• NCES district ID: 1301980
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $60,503
• Composite: 42.56/100
• National rank: #3195
• State rank: #16 of 174 in GA

Livability — Springfield

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #116
• US rank: #8573

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Springfield, GA
• County: Effingham County · 68,439 people
• Metro: Savannah, GA
• Population (ZIP): 9,609
• Household income: $78,483
• Rent vs Own: 22.5% rent · 77.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 80.0

Population outlook (Effingham County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 67,399 people
• By 2030: 72,297 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 81,602 · +21.1%
• By 2050: 89,494 · +32.8%
• By 2075: 105,976 · +57.2%
• By 2100: 111,943 · +66.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 22% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Effingham

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.1) · D 25.2% · R 74.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.6pp toward D · 2008: -50.7pp · 2024: -49.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.1 2020: R+49.5 2016: R+55.6 2012: R+51.2 2008: R+50.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.15%
• Current HPI: 255.5281
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Savannah, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+42.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-12 Price Changed $240,000 Hive MLS
• 2025-11-04 Listed $250,000 Hive MLS
• 2022-06-09 Sold (MLS) $192,000 Hive MLS
• 2022-05-06 Listed $169,000 Hive MLS
• 2022-05-06 Listed $169,000 Hive MLS

Property tax history

+16.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,691 · +23.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.