11151 W Deep Blue Pl · Crystal River, FL 34428

$225,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,858 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1997 0.37 ac lot Est $396k · 43% under $21/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Newer well constructed home, bright skylite open floor plan overlooks inground caged pool with fountain. Built in stereo, computer security system. Loads of extras. The master bedroom has seperate his hers bathrooms. Three bedrooms four full bathrooms. Close to the hospital and the mall also has new homes in the area.

Key facts

• Spacious living area
• Newer a/c
• Hot water heater

Tags

• INGROUND SCREENED POOL
• ROOF REPLACED
• NEWER A/C
• HOT WATER HEATER
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA
• SPLIT BEDROOM PLAN

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with $250 annual fee (about $20.83/month)

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car attached garage; Concrete driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family residential property; Faces southwest
• Construction: Stucco construction; Block foundation; Asphalt shingle roof; Built as single family residence
• Exterior features: In-ground pool with screen enclosure; Corner lot; Paved, private road frontage (private maintained road)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Laminate countertops; Blinds and window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $204 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (5.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $213k (5.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 2.1% in Crystal River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#603 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crystal River Primary School (math 45% / reading 55%, grade D+, #1,070 of 2,144 statewide, top 51%, 654 students, 70% FRL); Crystal River Middle School (math 49% / reading 47%, grade C-, #286 of 571 statewide, top 50%, 900 students, 64% FRL); Crystal River High School (math 31% / reading 44%, grade F, #336 of 667 statewide, top 51%, 1,249 students, 56% FRL).
• Market conditions: 320 active listings in the ZIP; 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,134/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($51k/yr) (locally 264% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $194k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $213,423 (5.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.16%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $395,754
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5911 N Brookgreen Dr	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,612 (-13%)	3mo	$210,000	$130	66
11249 W Cedar Lake Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,653 (-11%)	22mo	$255,000	$154	55
6390 N Jasper Ter	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,686 (-9%)	15mo	$367,000	$218	51
5705 N Brookgreen Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,596 (-14%)	20mo	$340,000	$213	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-23,449
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-3,701
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34428

• Home prices YoY: -15.3%
• Active inventory: 320
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,134 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$120 /mo · $1,445/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$21
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$448
• Net cashflow: $204

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,875

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $332	-5% $268	+0% $204	+5% $141	+10% $77
Rent	-10% $36	-5% $120	+0% $204	+5% $289	+10% $373
Rate	-1.0pp $318	-0.5pp $262	base $204	+0.5pp $146	+1.0pp $87

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $21 · $252/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $225,000 Pending 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $225,000 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $225,000 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $225,000 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $225,000 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-05-30
   days on market $225,000 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-05-23
   listed $225,000 Active
8. 2005-09-22
   soldstatus $194,000
9. 2005-09-13
   soldstatus $194,000 325-char remark

   Show marketing remark (325 chars)

   Newer well constructed home, bright skylite open floor plan overlooks inground caged pool with fountain. Built in stereo, computer security system. Loads of extras. The master bedroom has seperate his hers bathrooms. Three bedrooms four full bathrooms. Close to the hospital and the mall also has new homes in the area.

10. 2005-04-19
    listed $209,000 325-char remark

    Show marketing remark (325 chars)

    Newer well constructed home, bright skylite open floor plan overlooks inground caged pool with fountain. Built in stereo, computer security system. Loads of extras. The master bedroom has seperate his hers bathrooms. Three bedrooms four full bathrooms. Close to the hospital and the mall also has new homes in the area.

11. 2003-06-24
    soldstatus $145,000
12. 2003-06-19
    soldstatus $145,000 323-char remark

    Show marketing remark (323 chars)

    Beautiful, well constructed, light, bright easy to show. New appliances, island kitchen built- in stereo security system. Diamond Brite self-cleaning pool with fountain. Master bedroom has unique mirrored walls w/ 2 master baths. Loads of extras, buyers will love it. Home sits on 1/2 acre mol, in area of homes only.

13. 2003-03-24
    listed $154,900 323-char remark

    Show marketing remark (323 chars)

    Beautiful, well constructed, light, bright easy to show. New appliances, island kitchen built- in stereo security system. Diamond Brite self-cleaning pool with fountain. Master bedroom has unique mirrored walls w/ 2 master baths. Loads of extras, buyers will love it. Home sits on 1/2 acre mol, in area of homes only.

14. 2001-03-06
    soldstatus $135,000
15. 2001-03-01
    soldstatus $135,000
16. 2000-10-04
    listed $137,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,445 · $120/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,868 · $156/mo
• Expected delta: +$422/yr (+$35/mo · 29.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,611
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$1,445
• − Insurance: −$1,922
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,049
• − Management: −$2,049
• − HOA: −$252
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$1,256
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$301
• After-tax cash flow: $2,755/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

Livability — Crystal River

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #603
• US rank: #11564

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing B- Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Citrus County · 111,314 people
• City population: 10,163
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• Population (ZIP): 10,163
• Household income: $50,779
• Rent vs Own: 22.8% rent · 77.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 264.0

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.32%
• Current HPI: 317.7637
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+64.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Listed $225,000 RACC
• 2005-09-22 Sold (Public Records) $194,000 Public Records
• 2005-09-13 Sold (MLS) $194,000 RACC
• 2005-04-19 Listed $209,000 RACC
• 2003-06-24 Sold (Public Records) $145,000 Public Records
• 2003-06-19 Sold (MLS) $145,000 RACC
• 2003-03-24 Listed $154,900 RACC
• 2001-03-06 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records
• 2001-03-01 Sold (MLS) $135,000 RACC
• 2000-10-04 Listed $137,000 RACC

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,445 · +6.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.