4804 Carmen St Unit A-B · Houston, TX 77033

$479,900

6 bd · 5.0 ba · 2,600 sqft · MultiFamily · 22 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 5,100 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

3 Bedrooms and 2.5 Bathrooms. Discover modern living in this stunning new construction duplex, where contemporary design meets functional elegance. This spacious unit features three well-appointed bedrooms and two and a half bathrooms, all thoughtfully designed with high-end finishes. The entire home boasts durable and stylish laminate flooring, creating a seamless flow from the bright, open-concept living area into the sleek kitchen equipped with custom cabinetry and a central island. Experience a perfect blend of comfort and privacy with all bedrooms located on the upper level, including a primary suite that serves as a quiet retreat. The exterior is equally impressive, featuring a striki

Key facts

• Gated entrance
• Modern facade
• 5,100 sq ft lot

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION DUPLEX
• MODERN FACADE
• GATED ENTRANCE
• REMOTE CONTROLLED FENCE
• DEDICATED PARKING SPACES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Built by NewGen Builders LLC
• Financial info: Multi-unit property with 2 total units

Exterior

• Utilities: Electric heating and cooling
• Home design: Residential income property; New construction (2026); Total building area approximately 2,600; Composition roof
• Construction: Built in 2026; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Cleared lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Quartz counters; Laminate flooring

🏗️ New construction. The $479,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $530,400.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 3.0-bed/2.5-bath units multifamily listed at $480k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-515 ($-6k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-257/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $456k (5.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $399k (16.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $399k (16.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Woodson School (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,583 of 4,322 statewide, top 86%, 572 students, 99% FRL); Thomas Middle (math 3% / reading 13%, grade F, #1,654 of 1,662 statewide, top 100%, 526 students, 98% FRL); Sterling H S (math 16% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 1,421 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 96% FRL vs 71% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 16% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 338 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,988/mo this rent would consume 126% of the median local household income ($38k/yr) (locally 1728% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($473k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $398,800 (16.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.16%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $530,400
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9204 Jutland Rd Unit A/B	0.22mi	6/3.0	2,594 (-0%)	14mo	$530,000	$204	70
9208 Jutland St Unit A/B	0.22mi	6/3.0	2,593 (-0%)	15mo	$530,000	$204	69
9212 Jutland	0.21mi	6/3.0	2,594 (-0%)	17mo	$530,000	$204	68
4645 Larkspur St	0.39mi	6/—	2,300 (-12%)	16mo	$449,900	$196	49
5021 Mallow St	0.35mi	6/2.0	2,400 (-8%)	24mo	$450,000	$188	39
5210 Rue St	0.60mi	6/2.0	2,300 (-12%)	23mo	$419,900	$183	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-108,614
• Equity at exit: $79,084

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-93,112
• Equity at exit: $45,859

Cash invested: $148,512 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77033

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 338
• Price-to-rent: 20.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,988 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,781
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$663 /mo · $7,956/yr
• Insurance: −$221
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$837
• Net cashflow: $-515

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,640

Max offer price $455,885

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-148	-5% $-332	+0% $-515	+5% $-698	+10% $-882
Rent	-10% $-830	-5% $-672	+0% $-515	+5% $-357	+10% $-200
Rate	-1.0pp $-248	-0.5pp $-380	base $-515	+0.5pp $-652	+1.0pp $-792

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3.0	2.5	$3,988
Total (2 units)			$3,988

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $132,600
• Closing costs: $15,912
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $479,900 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $479,900 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $479,900 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $479,900 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $479,900 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $479,900 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $479,900 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $479,900 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $479,900 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $479,900 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $479,900 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $479,900 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $479,900 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-05-27
    listed $479,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,856
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,711
• − Property taxes: −$7,956
• − Insurance: −$2,652
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,828
• − Management: −$3,828
• − Depreciation: −$15,430
• Taxable loss: −$15,549
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,732
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,448/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 14 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This modern, newly constructed multi-family home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a high-end living experience with spacious interiors, modern finishes, and a well-maintained exterior. Minimal updates could further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,154
• Household income: $38,071
• Rent vs Own: 41.0% rent · 59.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1728.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 55% Hispanic / Latino 43% Two or more races 17% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 39%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -41.49%
• Current HPI: 212.6472
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.45%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $479,900 HARMLS