3780 Alcorn Rd · Fallon, NV 89406

$250,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,480 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 150 Days on market

Built 1960 1.20 ac lot $169/sqft · 43% below area Est $440k · 43% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

GREAT WATER RIGHTED PROPERTY WITH POTENTIAL. This property features a 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom, 1480-square-foot stick-built home. Mature trees and lots of room to build a shop/garage. Bring all your ideas and make this fixer-upper your dream home.

Key facts

• Room to build
• Mature trees
• 1.2 acre lot

Tags

• WATER RIGHTED PROPERTY
• MATURE TREES
• ROOM TO BUILD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-148 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $224k (10.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (30.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $174k (30.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.1% in Fallon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#24 in NV) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Churchill County School District (town): math 21% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #10 of 17 in NV (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 151 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 45 units permitted in Churchill County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Churchill County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 150 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,029 (30.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 150 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.53%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $439,965
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: -43.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4033 Cimarron Rd	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,560 (+5%)	3mo	$445,000	$285	68
4210 Magnolia Rd	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,655 (+12%)	10mo	$465,000	$281	50
4190 Bottom Rd	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,269 (-14%)	6mo	$405,000	$319	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-50,016
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-56,070
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 71 Landlord-Friendly
• State Nevada: 71 Landlord-Friendly · R+1
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; Clark County (Vegas) had pandemic backlogs; generally landlord-friendly but courts slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 89406

• Active inventory: 151
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,740 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,288/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $-148

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,927

Max offer price $223,913

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-6	-5% $-77	+0% $-148	+5% $-218	+10% $-289
Rent	-10% $-285	-5% $-216	+0% $-148	+5% $-79	+10% $-10
Rate	-1.0pp $-22	-0.5pp $-84	base $-148	+0.5pp $-212	+1.0pp $-278

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $250,000 Active 150 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $250,000 Active 149 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $250,000 Active 148 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $250,000 Active 147 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,000 Active 146 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $250,000 Active 144 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $250,000 Active 143 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $250,000 Active 140 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $250,000 Active 139 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $250,000 Active 138 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $250,000 Active 137 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $250,000 Active 134 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $250,000 Active 133 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $250,000 Active 132 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $250,000 Active 131 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $250,000 Active 130 DOM
17. 2026-01-20
    listed $250,000 Active 245-char remark

    Show marketing remark (245 chars)

    GREAT WATER RIGHTED PROPERTY WITH POTENTIAL. This property features a 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom, 1480-square-foot stick-built home. Mature trees and lots of room to build a shop/garage. Bring all your ideas and make this fixer-upper your dream home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NV · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,288 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,475 · $123/mo
• Expected delta: +$187/yr (+$16/mo · 14.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 17 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,883
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$1,288
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,671
• − Management: −$1,671
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$6,272
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,505
• After-tax cash flow: $-267/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Churchill County School District
• NCES district ID: 3200030
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,462
• Composite: 26.9/100
• National rank: #7090
• State rank: #10 of 17 in NV

Livability — Fallon

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #24
• US rank: #7219

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Churchill County · 25,739 people
• City population: 25,739
• Metro: Fallon, NV
• Population (ZIP): 25,739
• Household income: $79,163
• Rent vs Own: 30.1% rent · 69.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 427.0

Population outlook (Churchill County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,136 people
• By 2030: 20,921 · -5.5%
• By 2040: 18,522 · -16.3%
• By 2050: 16,175 · -26.9%
• By 2075: 11,713 · -47.1%
• By 2100: 7,954 · -64.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 11% Native American 4% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Italian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Churchill

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.2) · D 23.5% · R 73.8% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.4pp toward R · 2008: -31.8pp · 2024: -50.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.2 2020: R+49.0 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+39.9 2008: R+31.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -198.42%
• Current HPI: 261.7301
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Fallon, NV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.08%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NV)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Hotels / Casinos	3	$36B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-20 Listed $250,000 NNRMLS

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,288 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.