932 Yellow Ribbon Trl · Jarrell, TX 76537

$295,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,579 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition $114/sqft · 9% below area Est $322k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.3/15.0
• Cash flow +5.1/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Convenient to IH-35 for quick commutes to employers in Jarrell, Georgetown, Austin and Temple Easy access to dining and entertainment in Jarrell and nearby Georgetown Close to Jarrell ISD schools, including the new Igo Elementary School Shopping nearby at Round Rock Premium Outlets 174; and Wolf Ranch Town Center Near a variety of recreation at Blue Hole Park, San Gabriel Park, Lake Georgetown and Lake Belton Close to entertainment at Inner Space Cavern. To help visualize this homes floor plan and to highlight its potential virtual furnishings may have been added to photos found in this listing.

Key facts

• Built 2022
• Listed 51 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $295k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-807 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $173k (41.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (26.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (41.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.5% vs local median 4.8% in Jarrell — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#313 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Jarrell ISD (rural): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #713 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Jarrell El (math 19% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,277 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 785 students, 62% FRL); Jarrell Middle (math 21% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,258 of 1,662 statewide, top 77%, 741 students, 64% FRL); Jarrell H S (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 868 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 1147 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 50d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 12453% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $173,401 (41.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 41% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.91%
• DSCR: 0.56
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $322,267
• List price: $295,000
• Delta: -8.46%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
932 Yellow Ribbon Cv	0.00mi	4/2.5	2,579 (0%)	3mo	$229,900	$89	98
248 Feathers St	0.26mi	4/2.5	2,527 (-2%)	2mo	$290,585	$115	83
241 Night Riders Way	0.38mi	4/2.5	2,681 (+4%)	6mo	$280,000	$104	71
504 Yellow Ribbon Trl	0.60mi	4/3.0	2,546 (-1%)	0mo	$339,900	$134	68
157 Green Berets Bnd	0.41mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,536 (-2%)	5mo	$330,049	$130	67
108 Green Berets Bnd	0.42mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,536 (-2%)	6mo	$319,990	$126	65
161 Lucky Texan Rd	0.16mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,245 (-13%)	4mo	$276,035	$123	62
509 Yellow Ribbon	0.60mi	4/3.0	2,534 (-2%)	6mo	$364,900	$144	62
121 Hatari Trl	0.31mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,350 (-9%)	4mo	$311,998	$133	58
109 Mclintock Rd	0.58mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,470 (-4%)	3mo	$359,900	$146	54
104 Batjac Aly	0.57mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,434 (-6%)	2mo	$260,000	$107	53
524 Old Western Pass	0.71mi	4/3.0	2,260 (-12%)	1mo	$249,500	$110	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -42.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.27×
• Total profit: $-105,240
• Equity at exit: $43,985

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.19×
• Total profit: $-181,042
• Equity at exit: $25,506

Cash invested: $82,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 56 active · 26 under contract
• Months of supply: 25.8 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $299,495 ($134/sqft)
• Median days on market: 109 d
• This list price: 43% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -7.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76537

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 1147
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,165 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax from tax record: −$723 /mo · $8,670/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$455
• Net cashflow: $-807

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,187

Max offer price $173,401

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-640	-5% $-724	+0% $-807	+5% $-891	+10% $-974
Rent	-10% $-978	-5% $-893	+0% $-807	+5% $-722	+10% $-636
Rate	-1.0pp $-659	-0.5pp $-732	base $-807	+0.5pp $-884	+1.0pp $-962

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,750
• Closing costs: $8,850
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 36 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
521 Colonel McNally Cv Jarrell, TX	4.0	3.5	2579	$1,995	$0.77	85d	1	0.07mi
106 Lucky Texan Cv Jarrell, TX	4.0	3.5	2517	$2,300	$0.91	0d	1	0.13mi
131 Wild Wind Cv Jarrell, TX	4.0	3.0	2468	$2,095	$0.85	138d	1	0.33mi
131 Wild Wind Cv Jarrell, TX	4.0	3.0	2399	$2,095	$0.87	145d	1	0.33mi
261 Wild Wind Trl Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1867	$1,775	$0.95	1d	1	0.40mi
261 Wild Wind Trl Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1845	$1,900	$1.03	32d	1	0.40mi
224 Night Riders Way Jarrell, TX	5.0	3.0	2609	$2,100	$0.80	103d	1	0.41mi
524 Barbary Coast Cv Jarrell, TX	3.0	3.0	2552	$2,295	$0.90	74d	1	0.44mi
201 Night Riders Way Jarrell, TX	4.0	3.0	2260	$2,200	$0.97	0d	1	0.45mi
232 Wild Wind Trl Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1875	$1,850	$0.99	10d	1	0.46mi
1109 Paradise Canyon Cv Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1851	$1,800	$0.97	0d	1	0.47mi
229 Barbary Coast Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1935	$1,800	$0.93	128d	1	0.48mi
200 El Dorado Rd Jarrell, TX	5.0	3.0	2434	$2,150	$0.88	0d	1	0.55mi
200 El Dorado Rd Jarrell, TX	5.0	3.0	2434	$2,150	$0.88	1d	1	0.55mi
105 McLintock Rd Jarrell, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1773	$2,478	$1.40	0d	1	0.55mi
313 McLintock Rd Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1855	$1,830	$0.99	105d	1	0.55mi
313 McLintock Rd Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1855	$2,000	$1.08	143d	1	0.55mi
516 Taggart Trl Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1761	$1,750	$0.99	10d	1	0.58mi
332 McLintock Rd Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1877	$1,875	$1.00	43d	1	0.58mi
316 McLintock Rd Jarrell, TX	4.0	3.0	2560	$2,095	$0.82	184d	1	0.58mi
128 Old Stagecoach Rd Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.5	2263	$1,900	$0.84	69d	1	0.65mi
128 Old Stagecoach Rd Jarrell, TX	4.0	3.0	2358	$1,875	$0.80	29d	1	0.65mi
504 Lt Rusty Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1900	$1,795	$0.94	10d	1	0.68mi
504 Rusty DR Lot Rusty Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1900	$1,795	$0.94	69d	1	0.68mi
201 Katie Elder Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	2418	$1,795	$0.74	139d	1	0.86mi
316 Stone Water Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1909	$1,800	$0.94	133d	1	0.94mi
104 Cressida Cv Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.5	2475	$2,200	$0.89	10d	1	1.22mi
101 Cressida Cv Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.5	2479	$2,045	$0.82	0d	1	1.23mi
424 Cosmos Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1774	$1,825	$1.03	50d	1	1.31mi
744 Xanadu Dr Unit 53K Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1764	$1,750	$0.99	109d	1	1.32mi
1100 Jackson Ln Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.5	1839	$1,695	$0.92	119d	1	1.33mi
117 Open Sky Way Unit 4D Jarrell, TX	4.0	3.0	2145	$2,050	$0.96	41d	1	1.33mi
513 Circle Way Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.5	2230	$1,875	$0.84	85d	1	1.34mi
201 Bedford Falls Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	2084	$1,850	$0.89	184d	1	1.41mi
317 Bell Rings Dr Jarrell, TX	4.0	3.0	2260	$2,150	$0.95	3d	1	1.41mi
752 Circle Way Unit 35H Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.5	1983	$1,750	$0.88	6d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $295,000 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $295,000 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $295,000 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $295,000 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $295,000 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $295,000 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $295,000 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $295,000 Active 44 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $295,000 Active 43 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $295,000 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $295,000 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $295,000 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $295,000 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $295,000 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $295,000 Active 37 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $295,000 Active 36 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $295,000 Active 35 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $295,000 Active 34 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $295,000 Active 33 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $295,000 Active 32 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $295,000 Active 31 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $295,000 Active 30 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $295,000 Active 29 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $295,000 Active 28 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $295,000 Active 27 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $295,000 Active 26 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $295,000 Active 25 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $295,000 Active 24 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $295,000 Active 23 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $295,000 Active 22 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $295,000 Active 21 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $295,000 Active 20 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $295,000 Active 19 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $295,000 Active 18 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $295,000 Active 17 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $295,000 Active 16 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $295,000 Active 15 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $295,000 Active 14 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $295,000 Active 13 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $295,000 Active 12 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $295,000 Active 11 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $295,000 Active 10 DOM
43. 2026-09-25
    days on market $295,000 Active 8 DOM
44. 2026-09-24
    days on market $295,000 Active 7 DOM
45. 2026-09-23
    days on market $295,000 Active 6 DOM
46. 2026-09-22
    days on market $295,000 Active 5 DOM
47. 2026-09-21
    days on market $295,000 Active 4 DOM
48. 2026-09-20
    days on market $295,000 Active 3 DOM
49. 2026-09-19
    days on market $295,000 Active 2 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $295,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,670 · $723/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,670 · $723/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone A · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,979
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,525
• − Property taxes: −$8,670
• − Insurance: −$2,978
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,078
• − Management: −$2,078
• − Depreciation: −$8,582
• Taxable loss: −$14,931
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,584
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,104/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $12,895–$38,685 screening

This home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a cosmetic rehab level and requires minor maintenance and updates to increase its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value. ↑
• Both Replace carpet in living areas — Improves comfort and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Rental Clean and maintain HVAC system — Ensures comfort and can attract tenants ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Jarrell El F TX #3,277/4,322 Nat'l #31,702/41,679 Middle Jarrell Middle F TX #1,258/1,662 Nat'l #10,338/14,009 High Jarrell H S F TX #1,112/1,632 Nat'l #11,215/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jarrell ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824600
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $57,132
• Composite: 21.47/100
• National rank: #8335
• State rank: #713 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 71/100

Livability — Jarrell

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #313
• US rank: #7020

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Williamson County · 699,027 people
• City population: 16,272
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,272
• Household income: $98,199
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Puerto Rican 5%
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 26% Chinese 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.03%
• Current HPI: 184.8935
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.73%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-99.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-09-14 Listed for Rent $2,350 REDFIN
• 2026-09-14 Listed $295,000 Fizber.com
• 2026-08-10 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2026-08-03 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2026-07-24 Contingent — Unlock MLS
• 2026-07-15 Price Changed $229,900 Unlock MLS
• 2026-06-09 Price Changed $244,900 Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $259,900 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $274,900 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-02 Listed $284,900 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

-4.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $8,670 · -9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.