21533 Shady Black Oak · Decatur, AR 72722

$200,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1994 12 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to country living while still not too far away from the city. This property has a septic system, electricity, city water on site along with a single wide mobile home. There is room to build as well. Come see this today!

Key facts

• Room to build
• Several upgrades
• City water

Tags

• SEPTIC SYSTEM
• CITY WATER
• SINGLE WIDE MOBILE HOME
• ROOM TO BUILD
• SEVERAL UPGRADES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approximately 11.85 acres total; About 3.51 acres pasture; About 8.24 acres wooded
• HOA & community: Association fees billed monthly

Exterior

• Parking: Shared road frontage (dirt road)
• Utilities: Electricity available; Propane available; Public water available; Septic available (septic tank)
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property (less than 25 years old)
• Construction: Wood siding; Metal roof; Skirt foundation
• Exterior features: Unpaved driveway; Outbuilding; Property is outside city limits; Rural setting with wooded areas

Interior

• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Ductless heating; Ductless cooling; Window cooling units
• Interior features: Pantry; No additional interior features listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3 ($34/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $148k (25.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $148k (25.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#379 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Decatur School District (rural): math 26% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #163 of 238 in AR (top 68%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 4,359 units permitted in Benton County in 2024 (402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Benton County population projected at +56% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $24k; list at $200k implies a 716% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $148,176 (25.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.06%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.95×
• Total profit: $108,994
• Equity at exit: $180,176

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.73×
• Total profit: $320,611
• Equity at exit: $388,556

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72722

• Home prices YoY: 15.4%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,482 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$36 /mo · $428/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$311
• Net cashflow: $3

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,478

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 279-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $200,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $428 · $36/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,280 · $107/mo
• Expected delta: +$852/yr (+$71/mo · 199.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,781
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$428
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,422
• − Management: −$1,422
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$3,513
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$843
• After-tax cash flow: $877/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Decatur School District
• NCES district ID: 0504980
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $41,201
• Composite: 23.69/100
• National rank: #7833
• State rank: #163 of 238 in AR

Livability — Decatur

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #379
• US rank: #22548

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 2,920
• Population (ZIP): 2,920

Population outlook (Benton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 318,683 people
• By 2030: 353,481 · +10.9%
• By 2040: 425,280 · +33.4%
• By 2050: 497,239 · +56.0%
• By 2075: 662,114 · +107.8%
• By 2100: 776,431 · +143.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Two or more races 29% Hispanic / Latino 14% Asian 5% Black 3% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Iranian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Asian/Pacific 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Benton

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.0) · D 35.2% · R 62.1% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.6pp toward D · 2008: -36.5pp · 2024: -27.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.0 2020: R+26.4 2016: R+34.9 2012: R+40.4 2008: R+36.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 57.29%
• Current HPI: 428.7914
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+1566.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $200,000 NWARMLS
• 2026-06-16 Listed $200,000 NWARMLS
• 2020-04-24 Sold (Public Records) $24,500 Public Records
• 1997-12-05 Sold (Public Records) $12,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $428 · +0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.