11209 Spencer Mills Rd · Spencer, OH 44275

$115,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,592 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1900 0.47 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.5/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great Opportunity to own this wonderful peace of property for a great price. It just needs your finishing touches. very nice rural location and great school system. Act today before its too late!

Key facts

• 0.47 acre lot
• Built 1900
• Listed 16 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: 2-story home; Above-grade finished area approximately 1,592
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt/fiberglass roof; Slab foundation; Built (year source: Public Records)
• Exterior features: Lot of 0.47 acres

Interior

• Bedrooms: 1 main-level bedroom
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Has basement; Has fireplace (1)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $375 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,076 in OH) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime C-, employment C-, schools F.
• Black River Local (rural): math 55% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #278 of 656 in OH (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 471 units permitted in Medina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $38k; list at $115k implies a 203% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $113,275 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.98%
• DSCR: 1.62
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $5,272
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.10×
• Total profit: $35,395
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44275

• Home prices YoY: -8.7%
• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,451 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$120 /mo · $1,439/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$305
• Net cashflow: $375

Break-even live

Break-even rent $976

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $115,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $115,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $115,000 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $115,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $115,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $115,000 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    remarks 195-char remark
13. 2026-06-02
    listed $115,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,439 · $120/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,616 · $135/mo
• Expected delta: +$178/yr (+$15/mo · 12.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,410
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,439
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,393
• − Management: −$1,393
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $2,823
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$678
• After-tax cash flow: $3,825/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Black River Local
• NCES district ID: 3904846
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $54,027
• Composite: 51.84/100
• National rank: #1665
• State rank: #278 of 656 in OH

Livability — Spencer

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1076
• US rank: #21465

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C- Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Medina · 181,928 people
• Metro: Cleveland, OH
• Population (ZIP): 3,190
• Household income: $102,083
• Rent vs Own: 14.1% rent · 85.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 3.1

Population outlook (Medina County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 185,249 people
• By 2030: 188,174 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 190,350 · +2.8%
• By 2050: 187,283 · +1.1%
• By 2075: 177,108 · -4.4%
• By 2100: 151,304 · -18.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 6% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Iranian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Medina

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.8) · D 37.2% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.8pp toward R · 2008: -8.0pp · 2024: -24.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.8 2020: R+23.4 2016: R+24.9 2012: R+13.1 2008: R+8.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.86%
• Current HPI: 261.1408
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+202.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $115,000 MLSNOW
• 1988-07-22 Sold (Public Records) $38,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,439 · +18.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.