The Palmer Plan · Willis, TX 77318

$274,990

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,934 sqft · SingleFamily · 23 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +4.4/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• 1% rule +0.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to the Palmer, a large home featuring a standard first-floor owner's suite and the unique option of a second owner's suite upstairs. The first floor features open living and dining areas. At the top of the stairs, you'll be greeted by a huge loft and three additional bedrooms, two with walk-in closets. An optional second owner's suite includes a more cozy yet ample loft area. In either configuration, a junior en suite bedroom is standard.

Key facts

• Second owner's suite
• Huge loft
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• FIRST FLOOR OWNER'S SUITE
• SECOND OWNER'S SUITE
• OPEN LIVING AND DINING AREAS
• HUGE LOFT
• JUNIOR EN SUITE BEDROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price indicated (listing details provided separately)

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Natural gas available; Electric service available; Central air conditioning
• Home design: Single-family plan (The Palmer); New construction plan
• Construction: New construction (model/plan: The Palmer); Living area approximately 2,934
• Exterior features: Located at 12595 Canyon Falls Blvd, Willis TX 77318

Interior

• Kitchen: Includes standard kitchen (plan details not specified)
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Electric heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floor plan (model: The Palmer); Plan-style new construction
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer connections (typical for new construction)

🏗️ New construction. The $274,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $454,770.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $275k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $248k (9.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $248k (9.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.2% vs local median 4.7% in Willis — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#933 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, employment D+.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 1199 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $248,025 (9.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.55% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.15%
• DSCR: 0.50
• GRM: 15.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $454,770
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
224 Warbler Song Dr	0.66mi	4/3.5	2,954 (+1%)	8mo	$389,990	$132	62
240 Warbler Song Dr	0.68mi	4/3.5	2,861 (-2%)	4mo	$424,990	$149	61
402 Northern Cardinal Ct	0.66mi	4/3.5	2,818 (-4%)	2mo	$559,313	$198	61
136 Mockingbird Trails Dr	0.73mi	4/3.5	3,100 (+6%)	1mo	$429,990	$139	56
256 Warbler Song Dr	0.72mi	4/3.5	2,881 (-2%)	13mo	$409,990	$142	53
496 Golden St Unit A	0.52mi	3/2.5 (-1)	3,020 (+3%)	18mo	$740,000	$245	47
223 Warbler Song Dr	0.69mi	4/3.0	3,320 (+13%)	2mo	$514,733	$155	43
239 Warbler Song Dr	0.70mi	4/3.0	2,497 (-15%)	0mo	$399,990	$160	40
140 Mockingbird Trails Dr	0.72mi	4/3.0	2,513 (-14%)	1mo	$364,990	$145	40
119 Mockingbird Trails Dr	0.75mi	4/3.5	3,306 (+13%)	8mo	$519,960	$157	38
260 Warbler Song Dr	0.73mi	4/3.0	2,505 (-15%)	11mo	$417,990	$167	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -39.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.23×
• Total profit: $-156,296
• Equity at exit: $67,808

10-year hold

• IRR: -85.5%
• Equity multiple: -1.05×
• Total profit: $-261,092
• Equity at exit: $39,320

Cash invested: $127,336 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77318

• Home prices YoY: -32.7%
• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 1199
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,480 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,385
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$568 /mo · $6,822/yr
• Insurance: −$189
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$521
• Net cashflow: $-1,183

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,978

Max offer price $283,528

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-869	-5% $-1,026	+0% $-1,183	+5% $-1,341	+10% $-1,498
Rent	-10% $-1,379	-5% $-1,281	+0% $-1,183	+5% $-1,085	+10% $-987
Rate	-1.0pp $-954	-0.5pp $-1,068	base $-1,183	+0.5pp $-1,301	+1.0pp $-1,421

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $113,692
• Closing costs: $13,643
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
347 Skyline Ridge Dr Willis, TX	3.0	3.0	3000	$3,100	$1.03	44d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $274,990 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $274,990 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $274,990 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $274,990 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $274,990 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $274,990 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $274,990 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $274,990 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $274,990 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $274,990 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $274,990 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $274,990 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $274,990 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $274,990 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,763
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,474
• − Property taxes: −$6,822
• − Insurance: −$2,274
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,381
• − Management: −$2,381
• − Depreciation: −$13,230
• Taxable loss: −$22,798
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,472
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,729/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a cosmetic rehab level and requires minimal repairs and maintenance. The highest-ROI updates include painting the exterior siding, replacing carpet in bedrooms, installing smart home devices, and adding outdoor lighting. The home is move-in ready and has a large floor plan with multiple bedrooms and bathrooms.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value.
• Both Replace carpet in bedrooms — Carpet can be outdated and replacing it can improve both resale and rental value.
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices can increase convenience and appeal to potential buyers/renters.
• Both Add outdoor lighting — Outdoor lighting can enhance safety and curb appeal, making the home more attractive to potential buyers/renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Both Replace carpet in bedrooms — Carpet can be outdated and replacing it can improve both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices can increase convenience and appeal to potential buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Add outdoor lighting — Outdoor lighting can enhance safety and curb appeal, making the home more attractive to potential buyers/renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Willis

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #933
• US rank: #16579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Willis, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 38,421
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,792
• Household income: $92,415
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 279.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.58%
• Current HPI: 236.256
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B