3939 Central Ave #178 · Ceres, CA 95307

$150,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,187 sqft · Manufactured · 160 Days on market

Built 1984 Good condition $126/sqft · 45% above area Est $104k · 45% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.6/30.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully remodeled all-age mobile home. This 3-bed, 2-bath home features a brand-new roof, insulation, drywall, flooring, paint, light fixtures, and updated kitchen & bathrooms. Located in a great spot! Space rent: $938/month (includes garbage & sewer). Owner financing available. Owner Occupied.

Key facts

• Brand-new roof
• Updated bathrooms
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• REMODELED MOBILE HOME
• BRAND-NEW ROOF
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• UPDATED BATHROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $447 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 3.8% in Ceres — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#923 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Ceres Unified (suburban): math 15% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #303 of 517 in CA (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lucas Elementary (653 students, 76% FRL); Blaker-Kinser Junior High (644 students, 88% FRL); Central Valley High (math 17% / reading 55%, grade F, #604 of 1,170 statewide, top 52%, 2,309 students, 83% FRL).
• Market conditions: 90 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 160 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 160 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.77%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $103,591
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: 44.80%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3939 Central Ave #118	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,244 (+5%)	15mo	$160,000	$129	80

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $4,199
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.96×
• Total profit: $40,441
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95307

• Active inventory: 90
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,878 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$188 /mo · $2,250/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$394
• Net cashflow: $447

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,312

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $551	-5% $499	+0% $447	+5% $395	+10% $343
Rent	-10% $299	-5% $373	+0% $447	+5% $521	+10% $595
Rate	-1.0pp $523	-0.5pp $485	base $447	+0.5pp $408	+1.0pp $369

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2800 Don Pedro Rd Ceres, CA	2.0	1.0	816	$1,695	$2.08	5d	1	0.86mi
2717 Roeding Rd Apt 103 Ceres, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,800	$2.12	23d	1	0.87mi
2717 Roeding Rd Unit 96 Ceres, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,650	$1.94	45d	1	0.87mi
2717 Roeding Rd Apt 92 Ceres, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,750	$2.06	45d	1	0.87mi
2717 Roeding Rd Unit 34 Ceres, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,650	$1.94	15d	1	0.87mi
2717 Roeding Rd Unit 18 Ceres, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,600	$1.88	15d	1	0.87mi
2717 Roeding Rd Apt 13 Ceres, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,850	$2.18	23d	1	0.87mi
2714 Pyramid Ave Unit 2714 Ceres, CA	3.0	2.0	1008	$1,895	$1.88	25d	1	0.91mi
3850 Lexar Dr Ceres, CA	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,899	$1.90	14d	1	0.99mi
2250 5th St Unit 11 Ceres, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$1,395	$1.99	25d	1	1.12mi
2121 Moffett Rd Ceres, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,450	$1.61	45d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $150,000 Active 160 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 157 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 156 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 155 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 154 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $150,000 Active 152 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 151 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $150,000 Active 149 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 148 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $150,000 Active 147 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $150,000 Active 146 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $150,000 Active 143 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $150,000 Active 142 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 141 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 140 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 139 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $150,000 Active 138 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 38 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,538
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,250
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,803
• − Management: −$1,803
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $3,166
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$760
• After-tax cash flow: $4,606/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This beautifully remodeled mobile home is move-in ready with new kitchen, bathrooms, and flooring. It offers a great space for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Improves curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental.
• Both Upgrading light fixtures — Modernizes the home and improves energy efficiency.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Improves curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Upgrading light fixtures — Modernizes the home and improves energy efficiency. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ceres Unified
• NCES district ID: 0608130
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $48,178
• Composite: 27.96/100
• National rank: #6858
• State rank: #303 of 517 in CA

Livability — Ceres

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #923
• US rank: #24224

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ceres, CA
• County: Stanislaus County · 445,786 people
• City population: 46,310
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• Population (ZIP): 46,310
• Household income: $80,627
• Rent vs Own: 33.0% rent · 67.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1102.0

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 64% Two or more races 34% White 23% Asian 8% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 61%
• Common ancestry: Russian 3% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 41% English-only · Spanish 49% Other Indo-European 7% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -362.75%
• Current HPI: 307.5192
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B