Aspen Plan · Odessa, TX 79765

$194,950

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · SingleFamily · 65 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.2/30.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The 1,100 square-foot Aspen floor plan is a smart, efficient layout with open living spaces that just make sense. Brick and vinyl exterior with covered entryLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasOpen-concept kitchen, living, and dining areaKitchen islandGranite or quartz countertopsStainless steel appliancesPrivate primary suite with walk-in closet

Key facts

• Open living spaces
• Covered entry
• Kitchen island

Tags

• OPEN LIVING SPACES
• COVERED ENTRY
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• GRANITE OR QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $195k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $434 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).
• Recommended offer: $183k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#132 in TX, #3,928 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, amenities D, schools F.
• Ector County ISD (urban): math 22% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #707 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 431 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,004 units permitted in Ector County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ector County population projected at +78% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,253 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.53%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-9,378
• Equity at exit: $29,068

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $6,268
• Equity at exit: $16,856

Cash invested: $54,586 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79765

• Home prices YoY: -28.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 431
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,254 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,022
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$244 /mo · $2,924/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$473
• Net cashflow: $434

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,705

Max offer price $194,950

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,738
• Closing costs: $5,848
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10306 Sheriff St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1240	$2,050	$1.65	13d	1	0.20mi
10310 Creek St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1238	$2,300	$1.86	13d	1	0.25mi
401 Farmstead Ln Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1390	$2,500	$1.80	43d	1	0.32mi
310 E 95th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1390	$2,300	$1.65	20d	1	0.54mi
808 E 96th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$2,350	$1.59	43d	1	0.80mi
9100 Andrews Hwy Odessa, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	645	$1,259	$1.95	13d	5	0.89mi
1306 E 94th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1488	$2,350	$1.58	20d	1	1.12mi
1303 Terra Cotta St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1377	$1,999	$1.45	43d	1	1.16mi
1025 Pine Leaf Pl Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$2,200	$1.56	43d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $194,950 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $194,950 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $194,950 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $194,950 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $194,950 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $194,950 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $194,950 Active 58 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $194,950 Active 56 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $194,950 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $194,950 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $194,950 Active 53 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $194,950 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $194,950 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $194,950 Active 46 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $194,950 Active 45 DOM
16. 2026-05-13
    price $194,950 353-char remark

    Show marketing remark (353 chars)

    The 1,100 square-foot Aspen floor plan is a smart, efficient layout with open living spaces that just make sense. Brick and vinyl exterior with covered entryLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasOpen-concept kitchen, living, and dining areaKitchen islandGranite or quartz countertopsStainless steel appliancesPrivate primary suite with walk-in closet

17. 2026-04-15
    listed $188,950 Active 353-char remark

    Show marketing remark (353 chars)

    The 1,100 square-foot Aspen floor plan is a smart, efficient layout with open living spaces that just make sense. Brick and vinyl exterior with covered entryLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasOpen-concept kitchen, living, and dining areaKitchen islandGranite or quartz countertopsStainless steel appliancesPrivate primary suite with walk-in closet

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,053
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,920
• − Property taxes: −$2,924
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,164
• − Management: −$2,164
• − Depreciation: −$5,671
• Taxable income: $2,234
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$536
• After-tax cash flow: $4,669/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This well-maintained single-family home with an open floor plan and modern finishes is ready for immediate occupancy. It offers a good return on investment with minimal updates needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property.
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and adds modern appeal, attracting more buyers/renters.
• Both Install smart thermostat — Saves energy and adds modern appeal, attracting more buyers/renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and adds modern appeal, attracting more buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Install smart thermostat — Saves energy and adds modern appeal, attracting more buyers/renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ector County ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818000
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,740
• Composite: 21.89/100
• National rank: #8233
• State rank: #707 of 826 in TX

Livability — Odessa

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #3928

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Odessa, TX
• County: Ector County · 131,169 people
• City population: 131,169
• Metro: Odessa, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,904
• Household income: $104,965
• Rent vs Own: 35.4% rent · 64.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 884.0

Population outlook (Ector County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 212,765 people
• By 2030: 241,962 · +13.7%
• By 2040: 306,582 · +44.1%
• By 2050: 379,755 · +78.5%
• By 2075: 568,991 · +167.4%
• By 2100: 709,829 · +233.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 41% Two or more races 15% Black 5% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 31% German/W. Germanic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ector

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.9) · D 23.2% · R 76.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: -48.0pp · 2024: -52.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.9 2020: R+47.8 2016: R+40.6 2012: R+48.9 2008: R+48.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.68%
• Current HPI: 173.4252
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.54%
• Metro: Odessa, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+3.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $194,950 Zillow
• 2026-04-15 Listed $188,950 Zillow