416 Darling Creek Ln · Katy, TX 77493

$434,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,052 sqft · Land · 207 Days on market

Built 2026 6,576 sqft lot $212/sqft · 16% below area Est $516k · 16% under $110/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.6/15.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Cash flow +4.2/30.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

GRANGE! Katy's newest master planned community featuring Katy ISD! MOVE-IN READY NOW! THE SUMMERTON IS SO BRIGHT! This Modern, Single Story Split Plan offers 4 Bedrooms, 3 Bathrooms, Drop Zone, Covered Outdoor Living Space + 2 Car Attached Garage! Impressive Quartz Island Kitchen is Wide Open to Family Room and Casual Dining allowing for a Great Space Feel! Serene Primary Retreat offers Vaulted Ceiling w/ Beams + Attached Bath w/ Dual Sinks, Free-standing Tub, Separate Shower & Walk-In Closet featuring a Dressing Area and direct access to Utility. GE Stainless Steel Appliances, 2" Blinds, Upgraded Wood Tile Flooring, Security System, Sprinkler System, Full Gutters, Fully Sodded Yard + Landscaping Pkg all included!

Key facts

• Dual sinks
• Free-standing tub
• Vaulted ceiling

Tags

• COVERED OUTDOOR LIVING SPACE
• QUARTZ ISLAND KITCHEN
• VAULTED CEILING
• DUAL SINKS
• FREE-STANDING TUB
• SEPARATE SHOWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $435k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $264k (39.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (43.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $245k (43.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#111 in TX, #3,613 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 2696 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 207 days — a 12% lower offer ($383k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $244,601 (43.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 207 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 44% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.66%
• DSCR: 0.48
• GRM: 14.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $516,371
• List price: $434,990
• Delta: -15.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -41.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.26×
• Total profit: $-152,946
• Equity at exit: $64,858

10-year hold

• IRR: -90.8%
• Equity multiple: -1.11×
• Total profit: $-257,544
• Equity at exit: $37,610

Cash invested: $121,797 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77493

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 2696
• Price-to-rent: 14.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,446 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,281
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$544 /mo · $6,525/yr
• Insurance: −$181
• HOA: −$110
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$514
• Net cashflow: $-1,184

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,944

Max offer price $263,697

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $108,748
• Closing costs: $13,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $110 · $1,320/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingsecurity

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-03
   status Pending 736-char remark

   Show marketing remark (736 chars)

   GRANGE! Katy's newest master planned community featuring Katy ISD! MOVE-IN READY NOW! THE SUMMERTON IS SO BRIGHT! This Modern, Single Story Split Plan offers 4 Bedrooms, 3 Bathrooms, Drop Zone, Covered Outdoor Living Space + 2 Car Attached Garage! Impressive Quartz Island Kitchen is Wide Open to Family Room and Casual Dining allowing for a Great Space Feel! Serene Primary Retreat offers Vaulted Ceiling w/ Beams + Attached Bath w/ Dual Sinks, Free-standing Tub, Separate Shower & Walk-In Closet featuring a Dressing Area and direct access to Utility. GE Stainless Steel Appliances, 2" Blinds, Upgraded Wood Tile Flooring, Security System, Sprinkler System, Full Gutters, Fully Sodded Yard + Landscaping Pkg all included!

2. 2026-02-27
   price $434,990 736-char remark

   Show marketing remark (736 chars)

   GRANGE! Katy's newest master planned community featuring Katy ISD! MOVE-IN READY NOW! THE SUMMERTON IS SO BRIGHT! This Modern, Single Story Split Plan offers 4 Bedrooms, 3 Bathrooms, Drop Zone, Covered Outdoor Living Space + 2 Car Attached Garage! Impressive Quartz Island Kitchen is Wide Open to Family Room and Casual Dining allowing for a Great Space Feel! Serene Primary Retreat offers Vaulted Ceiling w/ Beams + Attached Bath w/ Dual Sinks, Free-standing Tub, Separate Shower & Walk-In Closet featuring a Dressing Area and direct access to Utility. GE Stainless Steel Appliances, 2" Blinds, Upgraded Wood Tile Flooring, Security System, Sprinkler System, Full Gutters, Fully Sodded Yard + Landscaping Pkg all included!

3. 2025-12-14
   price $439,990 736-char remark

   Show marketing remark (736 chars)

   GRANGE! Katy's newest master planned community featuring Katy ISD! MOVE-IN READY NOW! THE SUMMERTON IS SO BRIGHT! This Modern, Single Story Split Plan offers 4 Bedrooms, 3 Bathrooms, Drop Zone, Covered Outdoor Living Space + 2 Car Attached Garage! Impressive Quartz Island Kitchen is Wide Open to Family Room and Casual Dining allowing for a Great Space Feel! Serene Primary Retreat offers Vaulted Ceiling w/ Beams + Attached Bath w/ Dual Sinks, Free-standing Tub, Separate Shower & Walk-In Closet featuring a Dressing Area and direct access to Utility. GE Stainless Steel Appliances, 2" Blinds, Upgraded Wood Tile Flooring, Security System, Sprinkler System, Full Gutters, Fully Sodded Yard + Landscaping Pkg all included!

4. 2025-10-08
   listed $445,000 Active 736-char remark

   Show marketing remark (736 chars)

   GRANGE! Katy's newest master planned community featuring Katy ISD! MOVE-IN READY NOW! THE SUMMERTON IS SO BRIGHT! This Modern, Single Story Split Plan offers 4 Bedrooms, 3 Bathrooms, Drop Zone, Covered Outdoor Living Space + 2 Car Attached Garage! Impressive Quartz Island Kitchen is Wide Open to Family Room and Casual Dining allowing for a Great Space Feel! Serene Primary Retreat offers Vaulted Ceiling w/ Beams + Attached Bath w/ Dual Sinks, Free-standing Tub, Separate Shower & Walk-In Closet featuring a Dressing Area and direct access to Utility. GE Stainless Steel Appliances, 2" Blinds, Upgraded Wood Tile Flooring, Security System, Sprinkler System, Full Gutters, Fully Sodded Yard + Landscaping Pkg all included!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,352
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,366
• − Property taxes: −$6,525
• − Insurance: −$2,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,348
• − Management: −$2,348
• − HOA: −$1,320
• − Depreciation: −$12,654
• Taxable loss: −$22,384
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,372
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,833/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Katy

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #3613

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 413,575
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,484
• Household income: $118,464
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 913.0

Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.65%
• Current HPI: 233.1683
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $434,990 HARMLS
• 2025-12-14 Price Changed $439,990 HARMLS
• 2025-10-08 Listed $445,000 HARMLS