826 NW Palm Frond Way #38 · Carolina Shores, NC 28467

$234,990

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 1,734 sqft · Townhouse · 153 Days on market

Built 2025 Est $244k · at est. $180/mo HOA · 8% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• ARV discount +9.2/15.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the Filmore, a beautifully crafted two-story townhome designed for modern living. With 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a one-car garage, this home combines style, space, and convenience. The first-floor primary suite offers a private retreat, while the open living area flows effortlessly for entertaining or relaxing. Upstairs, two additional bedrooms provide plenty of room for family, guests, or a home office. A charming front porch adds extra curb appeal. Make the Filmore plan your home and enjoy every moment in a space that fits your life perfectly.

Key facts

• Dog park
• Open floorplan
• Walk in closet

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• PRIMARY SUITE ON FIRST LEVEL
• WALK IN CLOSET
• DOUBLE VANITIES
• PET FRIENDLY COMMUNITY
• DOG PARK

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: For sale
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with $180 monthly fee; HOA covers association management, common areas, legal/accounting, maintenance of grounds, recycling and trash; Association allows motorcycles with owner restrictions; pet restrictions apply; Community allows long-term and short-term rentals

Exterior

• Parking: Private one-car garage with garage door opener
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer available; Electricity available; Underground utilities; Trash collection
• Home design: New construction, never occupied; Entry level 1; R-17 zoning
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Slab foundation; New construction; Has home warranty
• Exterior features: Sprinkler/irrigation system; Front porch; Corner lot; Rectangular lot; Located outside city limits

Interior

• Kitchen: Breakfast bar; Kitchen island; Pantry; Stainless steel appliances; Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Disposal; Solid surface counters
• Bedrooms: Main-level bedroom; Second-floor bedrooms (two at 12x14); Bedroom dimensions include a 12x13 room with walk-in closet
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl / luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Attic with pull-down and permanent attic stairs; Dual sinks; Main level primary bedroom; Split bedrooms; Separate shower; Walk-in closet(s); Breakfast bar; Kitchen island; Loft; Insulated doors; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath townhouse listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-51 ($-609/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $228k (3.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (5.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.9% in Carolina Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#352 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living B+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Brunswick County Schools (rural): math 45% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #82 of 178 in NC (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Jessie Mae Monroe Elementary (math 43% / reading 41%, grade F, #633 of 1,410 statewide, top 48%, 394 students, 99% FRL); Shallotte Middle (math 40% / reading 50%, grade D, #160 of 475 statewide, top 35%, 674 students, 100% FRL); West Brunswick High (math 50% / reading 56%, grade C-, #281 of 535 statewide, top 53%, 1,526 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 53% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 703 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,112 units permitted in Brunswick County in 2024 (990 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brunswick County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 153 days — a 12% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,791 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 153 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.93%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $244,494
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
816 Palm Frond Way NW	0.02mi	3/3.5	1,734 (0%)	2mo	$244,990	$141	97
816 Palm Frond Way #41	0.02mi	3/3.5	1,734 (0%)	2mo	$244,990	$141	97
824 NW Palm Frond Way #39	0.01mi	3/3.5	1,734 (0%)	3mo	$250,000	$144	97
814 NW Palm Frond Way #42	0.03mi	3/3.5	1,734 (0%)	2mo	$244,991	$141	97
806 NW Palm Frond Way #44	0.04mi	3/3.5	1,734 (0%)	5mo	$239,880	$138	94
824 Palm Frond Way NW	0.01mi	3/3.5	1,704 (-2%)	3mo	$250,000	$147	94
814 Palm Frond Way NW	0.03mi	3/3.5	1,704 (-2%)	2mo	$244,990	$144	94
806 Palm Frond Way NW	0.04mi	3/3.5	1,704 (-2%)	5mo	$239,880	$141	91
723 Palm Frond Way NW	0.16mi	3/3.5	1,704 (-2%)	1mo	$250,000	$147	89
723 NW Palm Frond Way #9	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,734 (0%)	1mo	$250,000	$144	88
796 Palm Frond Way #47	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,697 (-2%)	4mo	$229,990	$136	88
796 Palm Frond Way NW	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,697 (-2%)	4mo	$229,990	$136	88

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-41,168
• Equity at exit: $35,038

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-39,427
• Equity at exit: $20,318

Cash invested: $65,797 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28467

• Home prices YoY: -33.7%
• Active inventory: 703
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,219 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$294 /mo · $3,525/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$180
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$466
• Net cashflow: $-51

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,283

Max offer price $227,643

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $112	-5% $30	+0% $-51	+5% $-132	+10% $-213
Rent	-10% $-226	-5% $-138	+0% $-51	+5% $37	+10% $125
Rate	-1.0pp $68	-0.5pp $9	base $-51	+0.5pp $-112	+1.0pp $-174

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,748
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3021 Siskin Dr NW Calabash, NC	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1557	$2,279	$1.46	15d	46	0.52mi
1204 Calabash Station Blvd NW Ocean Isle Beach, NC	3.0	2.0	1811	$2,200	$1.21	25d	1	0.54mi
2042 Parow Ln NW Calabash, NC	3.0	2.5	1680	$1,800	$1.07	15d	1	1.12mi
2033 Wild Indigo CIR NW Calabash, NC	3.0	3.0	1457	$1,775	$1.22	25d	1	1.12mi
31 Quaker Ridge Dr Calabash, NC	2.0–3.0	2.0	1411	$2,292	$1.62	23d	51	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $180 · $2,160/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $234,990 Pending 153 DOM
2. 2026-06-05
   days on market $234,990 Active Under Contract 152 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $234,990 Active Under Contract 151 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $234,990 Active Under Contract 150 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $234,990 Active Under Contract 149 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $234,990 Active Under Contract 148 DOM
7. 2026-05-30
   days on market $234,990 Active Under Contract 147 DOM
8. 2026-05-23
   historical Active Under Contract
9. 2026-05-22
   price $234,990
10. 2026-05-12
    price $234,990 567-char remark

    Show marketing remark (567 chars)

    Welcome to the Filmore, a beautifully crafted two-story townhome designed for modern living. With 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a one-car garage, this home combines style, space, and convenience. The first-floor primary suite offers a private retreat, while the open living area flows effortlessly for entertaining or relaxing. Upstairs, two additional bedrooms provide plenty of room for family, guests, or a home office. A charming front porch adds extra curb appeal. Make the Filmore plan your home and enjoy every moment in a space that fits your life perfectly.

11. 2026-05-09
    listed $239,990 Active 567-char remark

    Show marketing remark (567 chars)

    Welcome to the Filmore, a beautifully crafted two-story townhome designed for modern living. With 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a one-car garage, this home combines style, space, and convenience. The first-floor primary suite offers a private retreat, while the open living area flows effortlessly for entertaining or relaxing. Upstairs, two additional bedrooms provide plenty of room for family, guests, or a home office. A charming front porch adds extra curb appeal. Make the Filmore plan your home and enjoy every moment in a space that fits your life perfectly.

12. 2026-03-18
    price $239,990
13. 2026-03-11
    price $244,990
14. 2026-01-03
    listed $247,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,631
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,163
• − Property taxes: −$3,525
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,130
• − Management: −$2,130
• − HOA: −$2,160
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$4,489
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,077
• After-tax cash flow: $468/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brunswick County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700420
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,494
• Composite: 39.23/100
• National rank: #4011
• State rank: #82 of 178 in NC

Livability — Carolina Shores

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #352
• US rank: #13907

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brunswick County · 131,536 people
• City population: 13,313
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• Population (ZIP): 13,313
• Household income: $75,341
• Rent vs Own: 10.4% rent · 89.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 81.0

Population outlook (Brunswick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,111 people
• By 2030: 165,705 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 188,494 · +23.9%
• By 2050: 206,228 · +35.6%
• By 2075: 237,876 · +56.4%
• By 2100: 251,451 · +65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 4% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brunswick

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 37.2% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: -17.9pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+25.0 2016: R+28.7 2012: R+22.2 2008: R+17.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.90%
• Current HPI: 133.7186
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

-5.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Contingent — CCAR
• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $234,990 CCAR
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $234,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-09 Listed $239,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $239,990 CCAR
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $244,990 CCAR
• 2026-01-03 Listed $247,990 CCAR