34 Circle Way · Burgin, KY 40444

$229,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · Other · 59 Days on market

Built 1978 0.27 ac lot $141/sqft · 27% below area Est $314k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Experience elevated lake living with this exquisitely renovated 3-bedroom, 2-bath residence, ideally situated just steps from the boat dock on Lake Herrington. Perfectly positioned for both tranquility and recreation, this home offers seamless access to the water while maintaining a sense of privacy and retreat. The interior has been thoughtfully reimagined with sophisticated finishes throughout, including all-new flooring, designer paint selections, elegant vanities, curated lighting, and premium plumbing fixtures. Every detail has been carefully considered to create a cohesive, modern aesthetic that feels both luxurious and inviting. Enhancing the property's versatility is a separate in-law suite, already framed and ready to be customized to your vision. Whether transformed into a private guest residence, upscale rental, or bespoke entertainment space, it presents a rare opportunity to expand both lifestyle and value. This is more than a home—it's a refined lakeside escape with exceptional potential, offering the perfect balance of immediate enjoyment and future opportunity on one of Kentucky's most desirable waterfront destinations.

Key facts

• Boat dock
• Water access
• 0.27 acre lot

Tags

• BOAT DOCK
• SEPARATE IN-LAW SUITE
• WATER ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $229k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $84 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (21.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (21.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 2.2% in Burgin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#194 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Garrard County (rural): math 28% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #63 of 165 in KY (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 168 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $97k; list at $229k implies a 136% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $180,125 (21.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.57%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $314,394
• List price: $229,000
• Delta: -27.16%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-31,894
• Equity at exit: $34,145

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-21,399
• Equity at exit: $19,800

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40444

• Home prices YoY: -2.6%
• Active inventory: 168
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,801 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax from tax record: −$43 /mo · $515/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $84

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,695

Max offer price $229,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $213	-5% $149	+0% $84	+5% $19	+10% $-46
Rent	-10% $-59	-5% $13	+0% $84	+5% $155	+10% $226
Rate	-1.0pp $199	-0.5pp $142	base $84	+0.5pp $24	+1.0pp $-36

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,250
• Closing costs: $6,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $229,000 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,000 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,000 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,000 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,000 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $229,000 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,000 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $229,000 Active 50 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,000 Active 49 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $229,000 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $229,000 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $229,000 Active 44 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,000 Active 43 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $229,000 Active 42 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $239,900 Active 41 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,900 Active 40 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $239,900 Active 39 DOM
18. 2026-05-19
    price $239,900 1162-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1162 chars)

    Experience elevated lake living with this exquisitely renovated 3-bedroom, 2-bath residence, ideally situated just steps from the boat dock on Lake Herrington. Perfectly positioned for both tranquility and recreation, this home offers seamless access to the water while maintaining a sense of privacy and retreat. The interior has been thoughtfully reimagined with sophisticated finishes throughout, including all-new flooring, designer paint selections, elegant vanities, curated lighting, and premium plumbing fixtures. Every detail has been carefully considered to create a cohesive, modern aesthetic that feels both luxurious and inviting. Enhancing the property's versatility is a separate in-law suite, already framed and ready to be customized to your vision. Whether transformed into a private guest residence, upscale rental, or bespoke entertainment space, it presents a rare opportunity to expand both lifestyle and value. This is more than a home—it's a refined lakeside escape with exceptional potential, offering the perfect balance of immediate enjoyment and future opportunity on one of Kentucky's most desirable waterfront destinations.

19. 2026-04-30
    price $249,900 1162-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1162 chars)

    Experience elevated lake living with this exquisitely renovated 3-bedroom, 2-bath residence, ideally situated just steps from the boat dock on Lake Herrington. Perfectly positioned for both tranquility and recreation, this home offers seamless access to the water while maintaining a sense of privacy and retreat. The interior has been thoughtfully reimagined with sophisticated finishes throughout, including all-new flooring, designer paint selections, elegant vanities, curated lighting, and premium plumbing fixtures. Every detail has been carefully considered to create a cohesive, modern aesthetic that feels both luxurious and inviting. Enhancing the property's versatility is a separate in-law suite, already framed and ready to be customized to your vision. Whether transformed into a private guest residence, upscale rental, or bespoke entertainment space, it presents a rare opportunity to expand both lifestyle and value. This is more than a home—it's a refined lakeside escape with exceptional potential, offering the perfect balance of immediate enjoyment and future opportunity on one of Kentucky's most desirable waterfront destinations.

20. 2026-04-21
    listed $255,000 Active 1162-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1162 chars)

    Experience elevated lake living with this exquisitely renovated 3-bedroom, 2-bath residence, ideally situated just steps from the boat dock on Lake Herrington. Perfectly positioned for both tranquility and recreation, this home offers seamless access to the water while maintaining a sense of privacy and retreat. The interior has been thoughtfully reimagined with sophisticated finishes throughout, including all-new flooring, designer paint selections, elegant vanities, curated lighting, and premium plumbing fixtures. Every detail has been carefully considered to create a cohesive, modern aesthetic that feels both luxurious and inviting. Enhancing the property's versatility is a separate in-law suite, already framed and ready to be customized to your vision. Whether transformed into a private guest residence, upscale rental, or bespoke entertainment space, it presents a rare opportunity to expand both lifestyle and value. This is more than a home—it's a refined lakeside escape with exceptional potential, offering the perfect balance of immediate enjoyment and future opportunity on one of Kentucky's most desirable waterfront destinations.

21. 2026-02-27
    soldstatus $97,000 Closed 706-char remark

    Show marketing remark (706 chars)

    Affordable lake-area living with exceptional potential. This two-story, approximately 1,600 sq. ft. home is located just moments from Herrington Lake and features two outdoor decks and a privacy fence, offering both comfort and seclusion. While the property requires TLC and some repairs, it presents a fantastic opportunity for buyers looking to add value in a highly desirable location. Conveniently situated near Lexington, Nicholasville, Danville, and Richmond, this home is ideal for those seeking peaceful lake proximity without sacrificing accessibility. If you've ever dreamed of living just a short walk from the water, this property is worth a closer look. SELLERS ARE OPEN TO PRICE NEGOTIATIONS!

22. 2026-01-31
    status Pending 706-char remark

    Show marketing remark (706 chars)

    Affordable lake-area living with exceptional potential. This two-story, approximately 1,600 sq. ft. home is located just moments from Herrington Lake and features two outdoor decks and a privacy fence, offering both comfort and seclusion. While the property requires TLC and some repairs, it presents a fantastic opportunity for buyers looking to add value in a highly desirable location. Conveniently situated near Lexington, Nicholasville, Danville, and Richmond, this home is ideal for those seeking peaceful lake proximity without sacrificing accessibility. If you've ever dreamed of living just a short walk from the water, this property is worth a closer look. SELLERS ARE OPEN TO PRICE NEGOTIATIONS!

23. 2026-01-22
    price $139,000 706-char remark

    Show marketing remark (706 chars)

    Affordable lake-area living with exceptional potential. This two-story, approximately 1,600 sq. ft. home is located just moments from Herrington Lake and features two outdoor decks and a privacy fence, offering both comfort and seclusion. While the property requires TLC and some repairs, it presents a fantastic opportunity for buyers looking to add value in a highly desirable location. Conveniently situated near Lexington, Nicholasville, Danville, and Richmond, this home is ideal for those seeking peaceful lake proximity without sacrificing accessibility. If you've ever dreamed of living just a short walk from the water, this property is worth a closer look. SELLERS ARE OPEN TO PRICE NEGOTIATIONS!

24. 2026-01-02
    price $149,000 706-char remark

    Show marketing remark (706 chars)

    Affordable lake-area living with exceptional potential. This two-story, approximately 1,600 sq. ft. home is located just moments from Herrington Lake and features two outdoor decks and a privacy fence, offering both comfort and seclusion. While the property requires TLC and some repairs, it presents a fantastic opportunity for buyers looking to add value in a highly desirable location. Conveniently situated near Lexington, Nicholasville, Danville, and Richmond, this home is ideal for those seeking peaceful lake proximity without sacrificing accessibility. If you've ever dreamed of living just a short walk from the water, this property is worth a closer look. SELLERS ARE OPEN TO PRICE NEGOTIATIONS!

25. 2025-10-08
    listed $169,000 Active 706-char remark

    Show marketing remark (706 chars)

    Affordable lake-area living with exceptional potential. This two-story, approximately 1,600 sq. ft. home is located just moments from Herrington Lake and features two outdoor decks and a privacy fence, offering both comfort and seclusion. While the property requires TLC and some repairs, it presents a fantastic opportunity for buyers looking to add value in a highly desirable location. Conveniently situated near Lexington, Nicholasville, Danville, and Richmond, this home is ideal for those seeking peaceful lake proximity without sacrificing accessibility. If you've ever dreamed of living just a short walk from the water, this property is worth a closer look. SELLERS ARE OPEN TO PRICE NEGOTIATIONS!

26. 2010-06-20
    historical
27. 2009-06-08
    listed $74,500
28. 2003-09-01
    historical
29. 2002-04-24
    listed $75,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $515 · $43/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,969 · $164/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,455/yr (+$121/mo · 282.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,615
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,828
• − Property taxes: −$515
• − Insurance: −$1,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,729
• − Management: −$1,729
• − Depreciation: −$6,662
• Taxable loss: −$2,992
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$718
• After-tax cash flow: $1,724/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Garrard County
• NCES district ID: 2102160
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $43,411
• Composite: 29.67/100
• National rank: #6462
• State rank: #63 of 165 in KY

Livability — Burgin

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #194
• US rank: #9675

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 541
• Population (ZIP): 14,207

Population outlook (Garrard County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,852 people
• By 2030: 18,018 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 18,076 · +1.3%
• By 2050: 17,592 · -1.5%
• By 2075: 16,128 · -9.7%
• By 2100: 13,489 · -24.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Subsaharan African 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Garrard

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.2) · D 19.3% · R 79.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.1pp toward R · 2008: -43.1pp · 2024: -60.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.2 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+58.5 2012: R+51.6 2008: R+43.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.08%
• Current HPI: 297.6233
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+216.1% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $239,900 ImagineMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $249,900 ImagineMLS
• 2026-04-21 Listed $255,000 ImagineMLS
• 2026-02-27 Sold (MLS) $97,000 ImagineMLS
• 2026-01-31 Pending — ImagineMLS
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $139,000 ImagineMLS
• 2026-01-02 Price Changed $149,000 ImagineMLS
• 2025-10-08 Listed $169,000 ImagineMLS
• 2010-06-20 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2009-06-08 Listed $74,500 ImagineMLS
• 2003-09-01 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2002-04-24 Listed $75,900 ImagineMLS

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $515 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.