AMS16763B Plan · Odessa, TX 79762

$93,100

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,191 sqft · Manufactured · 658 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

You'll want to see the Lilly! If you're looking for a modern 3 BR single-side with a spacious and bright design, the Lilly is the home for you! This home features an accent wall in the living area that leads into the gorgeous island kitchen with all the modern amenities you are looking for. The master bath is your own oasis with a deep soaker tub and separate shower. Don't miss this one delivered and std set with air conditioning, caliche pad and steps for only $93,100 while it lasts.

Key facts

• Listed 657 days

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $93k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $731 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $93k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#132 in TX, #3,928 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, amenities D, schools F.
• Ector County ISD (urban): math 22% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #707 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 263 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 47% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,004 units permitted in Ector County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $644 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ector County population projected at +78% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.4% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 658 days — a 12% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $81,928 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 658 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.87% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.65%
• DSCR: 2.50
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.36% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.10×
• Total profit: $28,678
• Equity at exit: $13,882

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.83×
• Total profit: $73,819
• Equity at exit: $8,050

Cash invested: $26,068 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79762

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 263
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,740 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$488
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$116 /mo · $1,396/yr
• Insurance: −$39
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $731

Break-even live

Break-even rent $814

Max offer price $93,100

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,275
• Closing costs: $2,793
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3727 Andrews Hwy Odessa, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	800	$1,350	$1.69	13d	18	0.67mi
4312 N Dixie Blvd Unit 72C Odessa, TX	2.0	2.0	980	$1,450	$1.48	44d	1	0.68mi
1119 E 51st St Odessa, TX	2.0	1.5	1169	$1,500	$1.28	13d	1	0.72mi
3800 N Golder Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,600	$1.52	21d	1	0.83mi
815 W 40th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,800	$1.48	44d	1	0.89mi
1202 E 42nd St Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,650	$1.50	44d	1	0.93mi
1311 E 52nd St Unit 1 Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,950	$1.38	21d	1	0.93mi
6015 N Golder Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	1140	$3,500	$3.07	44d	1	1.00mi
3624 Walnut Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	1488	$1,950	$1.31	44d	1	1.07mi
3509 N Golder Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,700	$1.40	13d	1	1.08mi
1212 E Century Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	1359	$1,300	$0.96	21d	1	1.19mi
1529 E 52nd St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1275	$2,200	$1.73	44d	1	1.21mi
3107 Merrill Ave Odessa, TX	4.0	2.0	1212	$1,800	$1.49	44d	1	1.29mi
1613 E 52nd St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1122	$2,200	$1.96	13d	1	1.36mi
2702 S Colonial Dr Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	1490	$1,500	$1.01	13d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $93,100 Active 658 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $93,100 Active 657 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $93,100 Active 656 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $93,100 Active 655 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $93,100 Active 654 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $93,100 Active 652 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $93,100 Active 651 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $93,100 Active 649 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $93,100 Active 648 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $93,100 Active 647 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $93,100 Active 646 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $93,100 Active 641 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $93,100 Active 640 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $93,100 Active 639 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $93,100 Active 638 DOM
16. 2025-06-23
    status Active 489-char remark

    Show marketing remark (489 chars)

    You'll want to see the Lilly! If you're looking for a modern 3 BR single-side with a spacious and bright design, the Lilly is the home for you! This home features an accent wall in the living area that leads into the gorgeous island kitchen with all the modern amenities you are looking for. The master bath is your own oasis with a deep soaker tub and separate shower. Don't miss this one delivered and std set with air conditioning, caliche pad and steps for only $93,100 while it lasts.

17. 2025-05-23
    historical 489-char remark

    Show marketing remark (489 chars)

    You'll want to see the Lilly! If you're looking for a modern 3 BR single-side with a spacious and bright design, the Lilly is the home for you! This home features an accent wall in the living area that leads into the gorgeous island kitchen with all the modern amenities you are looking for. The master bath is your own oasis with a deep soaker tub and separate shower. Don't miss this one delivered and std set with air conditioning, caliche pad and steps for only $93,100 while it lasts.

18. 2024-07-30
    listed $93,100 Active 489-char remark

    Show marketing remark (489 chars)

    You'll want to see the Lilly! If you're looking for a modern 3 BR single-side with a spacious and bright design, the Lilly is the home for you! This home features an accent wall in the living area that leads into the gorgeous island kitchen with all the modern amenities you are looking for. The master bath is your own oasis with a deep soaker tub and separate shower. Don't miss this one delivered and std set with air conditioning, caliche pad and steps for only $93,100 while it lasts.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,878
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,215
• − Property taxes: −$1,396
• − Insurance: −$466
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,670
• − Management: −$1,670
• − Depreciation: −$2,708
• Taxable income: $7,752
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,860
• After-tax cash flow: $6,912/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This modern 3-bedroom mobile home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a good kitchen, bathrooms, and exterior. The home is move-in ready with minor cosmetic improvements needed to enhance its curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters
• Resale Upgrading the flooring — Updated flooring can make the home more appealing to potential buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters ↑
• Resale Upgrading the flooring — Updated flooring can make the home more appealing to potential buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ector County ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818000
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,740
• Composite: 21.89/100
• National rank: #8233
• State rank: #707 of 826 in TX

Livability — Odessa

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #3928

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Odessa, TX
• County: Ector County · 131,169 people
• City population: 131,169
• Metro: Odessa, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,927
• Household income: $75,272
• Rent vs Own: 44.1% rent · 55.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1477.0

Population outlook (Ector County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 212,765 people
• By 2030: 241,962 · +13.7%
• By 2040: 306,582 · +44.1%
• By 2050: 379,755 · +78.5%
• By 2075: 568,991 · +167.4%
• By 2100: 709,829 · +233.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 38% Two or more races 22% Black 6% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 30%

Political lean MEDSL · Ector

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.9) · D 23.2% · R 76.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: -48.0pp · 2024: -52.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.9 2020: R+47.8 2016: R+40.6 2012: R+48.9 2008: R+48.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -194.97%
• Current HPI: 229.6022
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.36%
• Metro: Odessa, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-06-23 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-05-23 Delisted — Zillow
• 2024-07-30 Listed $93,100 Zillow