213 Holly Dr · Natchez, MS 39120

$114,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,026 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 95 Days on market

Built 1955 0.25 ac lot $112/sqft · at area comps Est $113k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.9/30.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• ARV discount +6.9/15.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MOVE IN READY WITH NEW ROOF INSTALLED 2025! 3 Bed 1 Bath Perfect for First Time Home Buyer or Empty Nester! Interior has Fresh Paint & New LVP Flooring installed in Kitchen, Living, Hall. Bedrooms still have original Oak Flooring. Central Air Heat. Dishwasher & Fridge included. Attached Carport with Laundry Room. Nice Backyard with Metal Storage, which is included. If you are paying high rent, consider buying a home like this!

Key facts

• Central air heat
• Attached carport
• Laundry room

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW LVP FLOORING
• ORIGINAL OAK FLOORING
• CENTRAL AIR HEAT
• ATTACHED CARPORT
• LAUNDRY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $355 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $105k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 4.3% in Natchez — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#156 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B, housing B; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Natchez-Adams School District (town): math 8% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #114 of 130 in MS (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 283 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Adams County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $794 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Adams County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $87k; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 94% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $104,559 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.26%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $113,488
• List price: $114,900
• Delta: 1.24%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
811 Kenwood Ln	0.15mi	3/1.0	1,005 (-2%)	3mo	$105,000	$104	87
209 Holly Dr	0.03mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,032 (+1%)	20mo	$109,500	$106	76
1301 Westwood Rd	0.41mi	3/1.0	965 (-6%)	2mo	$109,000	$113	69
302 Holly Dr	0.11mi	3/1.0	1,100 (+7%)	24mo	$118,500	$108	63
3703 Sherwood Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,100 (+7%)	13mo	$106,000	$96	58
12 Maplewood Ln	0.40mi	2/1.0 (-1)	912 (-11%)	2mo	$99,500	$109	57
1306 Eastwood Rd	0.43mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,061 (+3%)	12mo	$90,000	$85	55
8 Oakwood Ln	0.45mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,076 (+5%)	13mo	$99,000	$92	55
25 Maplewood Ln	0.43mi	2/1.0 (-1)	951 (-7%)	19mo	$95,000	$100	47
1501 Eastwood Rd	0.51mi	2/1.0 (-1)	897 (-13%)	5mo	$54,500	$61	46
19 Beechwood Ln	0.52mi	2/1.0 (-1)	873 (-15%)	12mo	$69,500	$80	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $3,992
• Equity at exit: $17,132

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.01×
• Total profit: $32,514
• Equity at exit: $9,934

Cash invested: $32,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39120

• Active inventory: 283
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,355 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $779/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $355

Break-even live

Break-even rent $906

Max offer price $114,900

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $420	-5% $388	+0% $355	+5% $323	+10% $290
Rent	-10% $248	-5% $302	+0% $355	+5% $409	+10% $463
Rate	-1.0pp $413	-0.5pp $385	base $355	+0.5pp $326	+1.0pp $295

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,725
• Closing costs: $3,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $114,900 Pending 95 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $114,900 Active 93 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $114,900 Active 92 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $114,900 Active 91 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $114,900 Active 90 DOM
6. 2026-04-21
   price $114,900 439-char remark

   Show marketing remark (439 chars)

   MOVE IN READY WITH NEW ROOF INSTALLED 2025! 3 Bed 1 Bath Perfect for First Time Home Buyer or Empty Nester! Interior has Fresh Paint & New LVP Flooring installed in Kitchen, Living, Hall. Bedrooms still have original Oak Flooring. Central Air Heat. Dishwasher & Fridge included. Attached Carport with Laundry Room. Nice Backyard with Metal Storage, which is included. If you are paying high rent, consider buying a home like this!

7. 2026-03-02
   listed $117,900 Active 439-char remark

   Show marketing remark (439 chars)

   MOVE IN READY WITH NEW ROOF INSTALLED 2025! 3 Bed 1 Bath Perfect for First Time Home Buyer or Empty Nester! Interior has Fresh Paint & New LVP Flooring installed in Kitchen, Living, Hall. Bedrooms still have original Oak Flooring. Central Air Heat. Dishwasher & Fridge included. Attached Carport with Laundry Room. Nice Backyard with Metal Storage, which is included. If you are paying high rent, consider buying a home like this!

8. 2021-10-14
   soldstatus $87,000
9. 2014-01-08
   soldstatus $87,000
10. 2014-01-07
    soldstatus 279-char remark

    Show marketing remark (279 chars)

    CUTE HOUSE IN EASTBROOK SUBDIVISION. NEW CARPET & SOME FRESH PAINT. STOVE/OVEN, DISHWASHER & REFRIGERATOR REMAIN. COVERED PARKING. STORAGE BUILDING IN BACKYARD TO REMAIN. FENCED YARD. PRICED TO SELL! SQUARE FOOTAGE IS FROM COURTHOUSE RECORDS. LIST AGENT HAS NOT MEASURED.

11. 2013-08-12
    listed $86,000 279-char remark

    Show marketing remark (279 chars)

    CUTE HOUSE IN EASTBROOK SUBDIVISION. NEW CARPET & SOME FRESH PAINT. STOVE/OVEN, DISHWASHER & REFRIGERATOR REMAIN. COVERED PARKING. STORAGE BUILDING IN BACKYARD TO REMAIN. FENCED YARD. PRICED TO SELL! SQUARE FOOTAGE IS FROM COURTHOUSE RECORDS. LIST AGENT HAS NOT MEASURED.

12. 2004-10-07
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $779 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $908 · $76/mo
• Expected delta: +$128/yr (+$11/mo · 16.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 94% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,266
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,436
• − Property taxes: −$779
• − Insurance: −$574
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,301
• − Management: −$1,301
• − Depreciation: −$3,343
• Taxable income: $2,531
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$607
• After-tax cash flow: $3,658/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Natchez-Adams School District
• NCES district ID: 2803030
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $28,288
• Composite: 10.41/100
• National rank: #9785
• State rank: #114 of 130 in MS

Livability — Natchez

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #156
• US rank: #15334

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing B Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Natchez, MS
• Population (ZIP): 29,212

Population outlook (Adams County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,614 people
• By 2030: 27,405 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 24,914 · -12.9%
• By 2050: 22,554 · -21.2%
• By 2075: 17,096 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 12,156 · -57.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% White 37% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Adams

• 2024 margin: D (+13.9) · D 56.5% · R 42.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.7pp toward R · 2008: 15.6pp · 2024: 13.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.9 2020: D+16.1 2016: D+14.7 2012: D+18.0 2008: D+15.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.67%
• Current HPI: 112.2371
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+33.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $114,900 MLSU
• 2026-03-02 Listed $117,900 MLSU
• 2021-10-14 Sold (Public Records) $87,000 Public Records
• 2014-01-08 Sold (Public Records) $87,000 Public Records
• 2014-01-07 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2013-08-12 Listed $86,000 MLSU
• 2004-10-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $779 · +17.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.