10529 Cobbler Pl · Waldorf, MD 20695

$359,990

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,829 sqft · Townhouse · 70 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 1-car garage $197/sqft · 10% below area Est $400k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• ARV discount +12.0/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This three-story home features a first-floor flex space ready to be transformed off the entrance. Upstairs is an open concept living room/dining room with a kitchen and breakfast room, along with an optional deck. The top floor features the owner's suite with vaulted ceilings and an extra bedroom.

Key facts

• Optional deck
• Owner's suite
• Vaulted ceilings

Tags

• FIRST-FLOOR FLEX SPACE
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING ROOM
• OPTIONAL DECK
• OWNER'S SUITE
• VAULTED CEILINGS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $360k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-16 ($-191/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $358k (0.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $313k (13.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $313k (13.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.7% in Waldorf — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#141 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Charles County Public Schools (suburban): math 13% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #14 of 24 in MD (top 58%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Dr. Gustavus Brown Elementary (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #699 of 860 statewide, top 84%, 413 students, 73% FRL); Milton M. Somers Middle School (math 15% / reading 36%, grade F, #97 of 225 statewide, top 46%, 666 students, 39% FRL); St. Charles High School (math 26% / reading 41%, grade F, #148 of 222 statewide, top 67%, 1,569 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 28% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 281 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 62d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 65% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,542 units permitted in Charles County in 2024 (516 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Charles County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($338k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $312,899 (13.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.19%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $399,990
• List price: $359,990
• Delta: -10.00%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5524 Aberdeen Pl	0.10mi	2/3.0	1,862 (+2%)	0mo	$349,990	$188	90
5557 Marksburg Pl Pl	0.14mi	2/3.5	1,829 (0%)	0mo	$380,490	$208	90
5534 Marksburg Pl	0.12mi	2/3.5	1,829 (0%)	1mo	$379,990	$208	89
5546 Marksburg Pl Pl	0.14mi	2/3.5	1,829 (0%)	1mo	$379,990	$208	89
5526 Aberdeen Pl	0.11mi	2/3.0	1,862 (+2%)	2mo	$349,990	$188	88
5522 Aberdeen Pl	0.10mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,837 (+0%)	1mo	$399,990	$218	86
5627 Ludlow Pl	0.17mi	2/3.5	1,829 (0%)	2mo	$379,990	$208	86
5567 Marksburg Pl	0.15mi	2/3.5	1,862 (+2%)	1mo	$382,490	$205	85
5568 Marksburg Pl	0.17mi	2/3.5	1,862 (+2%)	0mo	$381,990	$205	85
5507 Aberdeen Pl	0.11mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,880 (+3%)	0mo	$402,890	$214	83
5616 Ludlow Pl	0.18mi	3/3.5 (+1)	1,871 (+2%)	2mo	$379,990	$203	77
5518 Aberdeen Pl	0.10mi	3/3.0 (+1)	2,072 (+13%)	2mo	$398,990	$193	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-59,300
• Equity at exit: $53,676

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-52,750
• Equity at exit: $31,125

Cash invested: $100,797 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 57 active · 44 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.6 mo (18%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $397,990 ($212/sqft)
• Median days on market: 56 d
• This list price: 2% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +3.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 20695

• Home prices YoY: -5.3%
• Active inventory: 281
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,129 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,888
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$450 /mo · $5,400/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$657
• Net cashflow: $-16

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,149

Max offer price $357,688

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $233	-5% $108	+0% $-16	+5% $-140	+10% $-265
Rent	-10% $-263	-5% $-140	+0% $-16	+5% $108	+10% $231
Rate	-1.0pp $165	-0.5pp $76	base $-16	+0.5pp $-109	+1.0pp $-204

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $89,998
• Closing costs: $10,800
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5527 Aberdeen Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	4.0	1880	$3,000	$1.60	62d	1	0.13mi
5527 Aberdeen Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	4.0	1880	$3,000	$1.60	48d	1	0.13mi
5616 Ludlow Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	3.5	1871	$3,050	$1.63	3d	1	0.15mi
10939 Drummond Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	2.5	2192	$3,500	$1.60	73d	1	0.16mi
10933 Drummond Pl Unit 10933 White Plains, MD	3.0	3.0	2300	$3,500	$1.52	54d	1	0.16mi
10893 Drummond Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	2.5	2192	$3,250	$1.48	71d	1	0.22mi
5692 Glencoe Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	2.5	1942	$3,254	$1.67	3d	4	0.35mi
11180 Conway Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	2.5	1765	$3,418	$1.94	0d	10	0.53mi
4152 Skipton Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	2.5	2529	$3,300	$1.30	33d	1	0.60mi
4165 Brodie Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	3.5	2544	$3,000	$1.18	66d	1	0.61mi
11177 Southport Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	2.5	1718	$2,950	$1.72	3d	1	0.73mi
5457 Spotswood Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	2.5	2180	$3,200	$1.47	23d	1	0.81mi
11687 Emily Dickinson Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	3.5	2496	$3,500	$1.40	12d	1	0.95mi
5754 Frederick Douglas Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	3.5	2220	$3,500	$1.58	93d	1	1.17mi
11703 Palm Desert Pl Waldorf, MD	3.0	2.5	1780	$2,750	$1.54	8d	1	1.38mi
11696 Palm Desert Pl Waldorf, MD	3.0	2.5	1720	$2,900	$1.69	66d	1	1.40mi
5525 Peanuts Ln Waldorf, MD	3.0	4.0	2160	$3,400	$1.57	93d	1	1.41mi
5427 Doubleday Ln Waldorf, MD	3.0	2.0	2160	$3,169	$1.47	0d	1	1.42mi
10263 Pine Hill Pl La Plata, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1088	$2,695	$2.48	1d	12	1.42mi
5065 Ottawa Park Pl Waldorf, MD	3.0	2.0	2192	$2,800	$1.28	62d	1	1.44mi
11761 Nationals Ln Unit 11761 Waldorf, MD	3.0	2.5	2160	$3,200	$1.48	73d	1	1.44mi
11761 Nationals Ln Unit 11761 Waldorf, MD	3.0	2.5	2160	$3,200	$1.48	62d	1	1.44mi
11789 Sunset Ridge Pl Waldorf, MD	3.0	2.5	1840	$2,950	$1.60	46d	1	1.47mi
11777 Sunningdale Pl Waldorf, MD	3.0	2.5	1944	$2,800	$1.44	93d	1	1.47mi
11748 Sunningdale Pl Waldorf, MD	3.0	2.5	1860	$2,750	$1.48	73d	1	1.47mi
5066 Oyster Reef Pl Waldorf, MD	2.0	2.5	1380	$2,695	$1.95	62d	1	1.48mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $379,390

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage (1 total parking space)
• Home design: Baylor Front Load Garage planActive listing
• Exterior features: Spec new construction

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Open living area (1,829 finished area)

Listing history 47 events

1. 2026-07-31
   days on market $359,990 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-07-30
   days on market $359,990 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-07-28
   pricedays on market $359,990 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-07-26
   days on market $379,390 Active 65 DOM
5. 2026-07-24
   days on market $379,390 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-07-23
   days on market $379,390 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-07-22
   days on market $379,390 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-07-21
   days on market $379,390 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-07-20
   days on market $379,390 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-07-18
    days on market $379,390 Active 57 DOM
11. 2026-07-18
    days on market $379,390 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-07-16
    days on market $379,390 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-07-15
    days on market $379,390 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-07-14
    days on market $379,390 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-07-13
    days on market $379,390 Active 52 DOM
16. 2026-07-13
    days on market $379,390 Active 51 DOM
17. 2026-07-11
    days on market $379,390 Active 50 DOM
18. 2026-07-10
    days on market $379,390 Active 49 DOM
19. 2026-07-09
    days on market $379,390 Active 48 DOM
20. 2026-07-07
    days on market $379,390 Active 46 DOM
21. 2026-07-06
    days on market $379,390 Active 45 DOM
22. 2026-07-06
    days on market $379,390 Active 44 DOM
23. 2026-07-05
    days on market $379,390 Active 43 DOM
24. 2026-07-03
    days on market $379,390 Active 42 DOM
25. 2026-07-02
    days on market $379,390 Active 41 DOM
26. 2026-07-01
    days on market $379,390 Active 40 DOM
27. 2026-06-30
    days on market $379,390 Active 39 DOM
28. 2026-06-29
    days on market $379,390 Active 38 DOM
29. 2026-06-28
    days on market $379,390 Active 37 DOM
30. 2026-06-27
    days on market $379,390 Active 36 DOM
31. 2026-06-26
    days on market $379,390 Active 35 DOM
32. 2026-06-24
    days on market $379,390 Active 33 DOM
33. 2026-06-22
    days on market $379,390 Active 31 DOM
34. 2026-06-21
    days on market $379,390 Active 30 DOM
35. 2026-06-18
    days on market $379,390 Active 27 DOM
36. 2026-06-17
    days on market $379,390 Active 26 DOM
37. 2026-06-16
    days on market $379,390 Active 25 DOM
38. 2026-06-15
    days on market $379,390 Active 24 DOM
39. 2026-06-13
    days on market $379,390 Active 22 DOM
40. 2026-06-10
    days on market $379,390 Active 18 DOM
41. 2026-06-08
    days on market $379,390 Active 17 DOM
42. 2026-06-07
    days on market $379,390 Active 16 DOM
43. 2026-06-04
    days on market $379,390 Active 13 DOM
44. 2026-06-03
    days on market $379,390 Active 12 DOM
45. 2026-06-02
    days on market $379,390 Active 11 DOM
46. 2026-06-01
    days on market $379,390 Active 10 DOM
47. 2026-05-31
    days on market $379,390 Active 9 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,548
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,165
• − Property taxes: −$5,400
• − Insurance: −$1,800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,004
• − Management: −$3,004
• − Depreciation: −$10,472
• Taxable loss: −$6,297
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,511
• After-tax cash flow: $1,320/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This three-story townhouse is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. The highest-ROI updates would be painting the exterior and landscaping improvements to enhance curb appeal and value, as well as new flooring in bathrooms and new kitchen appliances to modernize the kitchen and add value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves aesthetics and functionality ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 22/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Arthur Middleton Elementary School F MD #681/860 Nat'l #39,883/41,679 Middle Milton M. Somers Middle School F MD #97/225 Nat'l #10,204/14,009 High St. Charles High School F MD #148/222 Nat'l #10,191/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Charles County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400270
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $90,389
• Composite: 22.54/100
• National rank: #8087
• State rank: #14 of 24 in MD

B Composite livability gradescore 72/100

Livability — Waldorf

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #141
• US rank: #6083

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waldorf, MD
• County: Charles County · 176,616 people
• City population: 103,527
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 16,407
• Household income: $141,959
• Rent vs Own: 12.8% rent · 87.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

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Population outlook (Charles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 176,616 people
• By 2030: 186,471 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 206,472 · +16.9%
• By 2050: 224,883 · +27.3%
• By 2075: 272,101 · +54.1%
• By 2100: 303,564 · +71.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 61% White 23% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Charles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+40.7) · D 69.2% · R 28.5% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +15.2pp toward D · 2008: 25.5pp · 2024: 40.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+40.7 2020: D+40.9 2016: D+30.2 2012: D+31.3 2008: D+25.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.63%
• Current HPI: 226.972
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $379,390

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage (1 total parking space)
• Home design: Baylor Front Load Garage planActive listing
• Exterior features: Spec new construction

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Open living area (1,829 finished area)