EARTH Plan · Lavon, TX 75166

$292,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,921 sqft · SingleFamily · 124 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the Earth floorplan at Elevon in Lavon, TX! This Express Series home plan offers an exceptional blend of style and functionality, designed to meet the demands of modern lifestyles. The custom, architecturally designed elevation, complemented by divided light windows and a front-facing garage with decorative hardware, creates a striking visual appeal. A covered front porch leads to a raised panel fiberglass insulated front door, inviting you into a world of comfort. Inside, a welcoming foyer seamlessly flows into the open concept living spaces. The kitchen, a focal point of the home, features 30" cabinets with hidden hinges, elegant granite or quartz countertops, and stainless-steel appliances. A built-in sink, dishwasher, and spacious pantry provide ample storage and functionality. The primary bedroom, designed for relaxation, includes an adjoining bathroom that simplifies daily routines. An elongated vanity with a sink and non-framed mirror, along with a walk-in shower and closet, ensures both comfort and convenience. Laminate wood plank flooring in the living areas and plush ½" carpet in the bedrooms create a warm and inviting atmosphere. This plan is further enhanced by a user-friendly smart home system and an innovative tech package, offering modern convenience and seamless connectivity. PLUS enjoy energy efficient features such as Energy Star certified doors, windows, HVAC, insulation and more! The thoughtful design and contemporary features of this Express

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• 30 inch cabinets
• Front facing garage

Tags

• DIVIDED LIGHT WINDOWS
• FRONT FACING GARAGE
• DECORATIVE HARDWARE
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING SPACES
• 30 INCH CABINETS

🏗️ New construction. The $292,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $308,875.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $293k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-106 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $257k (12.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $257k (12.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.5% in Lavon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#588 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Leland E Edge Middle (math 25% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,662 statewide, top 65%, 931 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 36% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 640 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($258k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $256,763 (12.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.47%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $308,875
• List price: $292,990
• Delta: -5.14%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
830 Creekview Ln	0.27mi	4/2.0	1,861 (-3%)	0mo	$295,000	$159	80
615 Dove Haven Way	0.36mi	4/2.0	1,935 (+1%)	2mo	$319,990	$165	79
461 Marsh Dr	0.27mi	4/2.0	2,000 (+4%)	2mo	$349,999	$175	77
643 Dove Haven Way	0.29mi	4/2.0	1,845 (-4%)	2mo	$319,490	$173	76
519 Chase Creek Dr	0.37mi	4/2.0	1,800 (-6%)	1mo	$329,999	$183	69
383 Rockstream Dr	0.37mi	4/2.0	1,800 (-6%)	2mo	$314,990	$175	68
707 Walkabout Pl	0.31mi	4/2.5	2,133 (+11%)	1mo	$321,990	$151	66
562 Water Valley Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,992 (+4%)	1mo	$330,000	$166	66
650 Walkabout Pl	0.34mi	4/2.5	2,133 (+11%)	2mo	$320,490	$150	64
201 Brookview Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,902 (-1%)	1mo	$360,000	$189	62
358 Chase Creek Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,002 (+4%)	2mo	$324,000	$162	60
140 Chase Creek Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,002 (+4%)	1mo	$319,500	$160	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-56,772
• Equity at exit: $46,054

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-57,984
• Equity at exit: $26,706

Cash invested: $86,485 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75166

• Home prices YoY: -9.9%
• Active inventory: 640
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,568 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,620
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$386 /mo · $4,633/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$539
• Net cashflow: $-106

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,702

Max offer price $293,517

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $107	-5% $1	+0% $-106	+5% $-213	+10% $-320
Rent	-10% $-309	-5% $-208	+0% $-106	+5% $-5	+10% $97
Rate	-1.0pp $49	-0.5pp $-28	base $-106	+0.5pp $-186	+1.0pp $-268

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,219
• Closing costs: $9,266
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
600 Blooming Glade Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,900	$1.35	8d	1	0.10mi
613 Daybreak Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.5	1905	$2,300	$1.21	45d	1	0.13mi
849 Good Cheer Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$2,200	$1.51	14d	1	0.31mi
860 Moonwake Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2011	$2,800	$1.39	45d	1	0.34mi
544 Oak Creek Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,150	$1.19	20d	1	0.34mi
455 Elevon Pkwy Lavon, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1011	$1,988	$1.97	0d	79	0.35mi
918 Ramble Rd Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1604	$1,900	$1.18	45d	1	0.36mi
906 Ramble Rd Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$2,675	$1.83	4d	1	0.36mi
383 Silver Springs Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2466	$2,500	$1.01	45d	1	0.36mi
361 Silver Springs Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2466	$2,295	$0.93	45d	1	0.38mi
358 Rockstream Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2201	$2,395	$1.09	26d	1	0.42mi
117 Community Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	3.5	2356	$2,600	$1.10	26d	1	0.77mi
344 Cyprus Grove Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2353	$2,600	$1.10	26d	1	0.77mi
445 Elevon Pkwy Lavon, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1143	$2,029	$1.77	1d	25	0.89mi
312 Silent Pond Park Unit 312 Lavon, TX	3.0	2.5	2016	$2,900	$1.44	45d	1	1.12mi
209 Little Bridge Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1913	$2,400	$1.25	1d	1	1.14mi
759 Gentle Bird Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2400	$2,900	$1.21	26d	1	1.33mi
151 Villas Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	1.0–3.0	871	$2,345	$2.69	0d	104	1.38mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $292,990 Active 124 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $292,990 Active 121 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $292,990 Active 120 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $292,990 Active 119 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $292,990 Active 118 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $292,990 Active 116 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $292,990 Active 115 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $292,990 Active 112 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $292,990 Active 111 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $292,990 Active 110 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $292,990 Active 107 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $292,990 Active 106 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $292,990 Active 105 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $292,990 Active 104 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $292,990 Active 103 DOM
16. 2026-02-17
    listed $292,990 Active 1516-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1516 chars)

    Welcome to the Earth floorplan at Elevon in Lavon, TX! This Express Series home plan offers an exceptional blend of style and functionality, designed to meet the demands of modern lifestyles. The custom, architecturally designed elevation, complemented by divided light windows and a front-facing garage with decorative hardware, creates a striking visual appeal. A covered front porch leads to a raised panel fiberglass insulated front door, inviting you into a world of comfort. Inside, a welcoming foyer seamlessly flows into the open concept living spaces. The kitchen, a focal point of the home, features 30" cabinets with hidden hinges, elegant granite or quartz countertops, and stainless-steel appliances. A built-in sink, dishwasher, and spacious pantry provide ample storage and functionality. The primary bedroom, designed for relaxation, includes an adjoining bathroom that simplifies daily routines. An elongated vanity with a sink and non-framed mirror, along with a walk-in shower and closet, ensures both comfort and convenience. Laminate wood plank flooring in the living areas and plush ½" carpet in the bedrooms create a warm and inviting atmosphere. This plan is further enhanced by a user-friendly smart home system and an innovative tech package, offering modern convenience and seamless connectivity. PLUS enjoy energy efficient features such as Energy Star certified doors, windows, HVAC, insulation and more! The thoughtful design and contemporary features of this Express

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,812
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,302
• − Property taxes: −$4,633
• − Insurance: −$1,544
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,465
• − Management: −$2,465
• − Depreciation: −$8,985
• Taxable loss: −$6,583
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,580
• After-tax cash flow: $306/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This Earth floorplan home in Lavon, TX is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace front door hardware — Improves entryway aesthetics
• Both Install new countertops — Modernizes kitchen and adds value
• Both Update lighting fixtures — Enhances interior ambiance and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace front door hardware — Improves entryway aesthetics ↑
• Both Install new countertops — Modernizes kitchen and adds value ↑
• Both Update lighting fixtures — Enhances interior ambiance and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lavon

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #588
• US rank: #11230

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 6,989
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,989
• Household income: $132,101
• Rent vs Own: 9.1% rent · 90.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 41.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 15% Black 7% Asian 4% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.22%
• Current HPI: 221.0
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-17 Listed $292,990 Zillow