5458 Bill Sain Rd · Lincolnton, NC 28168

$170,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1998 0.82 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.2/30.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

1998 Fleetwood Heritage Pointe (28x56) on . 825 of an acre in rural Lincoln County ready for new owner.

Key facts

• 0.82 acre lot
• Built 1998

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $309 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (0.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $169k (0.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 2.8% in Lincolnton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#148 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Lincoln County Schools (rural): math 57% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #42 of 178 in NC (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Union Elementary (math 67% / reading 57%, grade B, #179 of 1,410 statewide, top 14%, 323 students, 55% FRL); West Lincoln High (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C, #248 of 535 statewide, top 48%, 756 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP; 697 units permitted in Lincoln County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lincoln County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $170k implies a 111% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,957 (0.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.78%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-7,952
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $18,124
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28168

• Home prices YoY: -12.6%
• Active inventory: 50
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,690 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $765/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $309

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,299

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-21
   listed $170,000 Active
3. 2016-05-18
   soldstatus $80,500
4. 2013-03-22
   soldstatus $44,000 Closed
5. 2013-02-20
   historical Under Contract - No Show
6. 1998-04-16
   soldstatus $10,000
7. 1998-04-16
   soldstatus $89,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $765 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,394 · $116/mo
• Expected delta: +$629/yr (+$52/mo · 82.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,275
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$765
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,622
• − Management: −$1,622
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable income: $948
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$228
• After-tax cash flow: $3,477/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lincoln County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702680
• Math proficiency: 57% ▲ 7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $49,203
• Composite: 47.7/100
• National rank: #2242
• State rank: #42 of 178 in NC

Livability — Lincolnton

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #148
• US rank: #8217

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 40,350
• Population (ZIP): 10,436

Population outlook (Lincoln County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 86,972 people
• By 2030: 89,467 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 93,107 · +7.1%
• By 2050: 94,304 · +8.4%
• By 2075: 95,190 · +9.4%
• By 2100: 90,096 · +3.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Scottish 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lincoln

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.7) · D 26.8% · R 72.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.3pp · 2024: -45.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.7 2020: R+45.9 2016: R+47.7 2012: R+38.9 2008: R+33.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -41.82%
• Current HPI: 289.1565
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+1600.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Pending — CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-21 Listed $170,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-05-18 Sold (Public Records) $80,500 Public Records
• 2013-03-22 Sold (MLS) $44,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-02-20 Contingent — CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-04-16 Sold (Public Records) $89,500 Public Records
• 1998-04-16 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $765 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.