125 Lowin Ave · New Haven, CT 06515

$299,999

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,722 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1941 0.25 ac lot Est $451k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

4 Bedroom 1.1 Bath colonial in lovely residential area near hamden, brand new ro

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1941

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $10 ($115/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $282k (6.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $282k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.8% in New Haven — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#31 in CT, #2,190 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, crime F.
• New Haven School District (urban): math 12% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #147 of 153 in CT (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: James Hillhouse High School (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #188 of 194 statewide, top 98%, 1,139 students, 79% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 37 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,059 units permitted in South Central Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (779 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,820/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($74k/yr) (locally 1156% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $206k; 46% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1941 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $282,022 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1941 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.14%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $451,164
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20 Maplewood Rd	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,754 (+2%)	7mo	$460,000	$262	79
36 Birch Dr	0.29mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,716 (-0%)	6mo	$444,000	$259	76
59 Judwin Ave	0.16mi	4/1.5	1,819 (+6%)	9mo	$380,000	$209	76
55 Englewood Dr	0.22mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,839 (+7%)	1mo	$423,750	$230	72
230 Curtis Dr	0.35mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,732 (+1%)	8mo	$425,000	$245	71
5 Robin Ln	0.16mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,774 (+3%)	11mo	$475,000	$268	69
102 W Prospect St	0.36mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,792 (+4%)	9mo	$345,000	$193	64
126 Willard St	0.72mi	4/2.5	1,822 (+6%)	6mo	$630,000	$346	48
195 Stevenson Rd	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,869 (+8%)	6mo	$510,000	$273	41
23 Whittier Rd	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,978 (+15%)	8mo	$475,000	$240	39
197 Willard St	0.58mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,482 (-14%)	11mo	$485,000	$327	36
174 Willard St	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,497 (-13%)	10mo	$486,000	$325	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-49,507
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-48,426
• Equity at exit: $25,938

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06515

• Home prices YoY: -12.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,820 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$520 /mo · $6,242/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$592
• Net cashflow: $10

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,808

Max offer price $299,999

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $179	-5% $94	+0% $10	+5% $-75	+10% $-160
Rent	-10% $-213	-5% $-102	+0% $10	+5% $121	+10% $232
Rate	-1.0pp $161	-0.5pp $86	base $10	+0.5pp $-68	+1.0pp $-147

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
30 Maplewood Rd New Haven, CT	3.0	1.5	1870	$910	$0.49	24d	1	0.14mi
119 Brooklawn Cir New Haven, CT	4.0	3.0	2052	$3,200	$1.56	11d	1	0.17mi
155 Lakeview Ter New Haven, CT	3.0	2.5	1625	$2,950	$1.82	19d	1	0.24mi
52 Davis St New Haven, CT	4.0	1.5	1635	$2,995	$1.83	3d	1	0.27mi
39 Pardee Pl New Haven, CT	4.0	2.0	2004	$2,850	$1.42	19d	1	0.50mi
253 W Elm St Unit 2 New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	1434	$2,650	$1.85	3d	1	0.66mi
8 Miles Ave Apt A Woodbridge, CT	3.0	1.5	1200	$2,600	$2.17	22d	1	0.97mi
55 Marvel Rd Unit A3 New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	1300	$2,750	$2.12	3d	1	0.98mi
38 Landin St Unit 2 Woodbridge, CT	3.0	1.0	1316	$2,200	$1.67	3d	1	0.98mi
842 Edgewood Ave Unit 2 New Haven, CT	3.0	2.0	1200	$3,100	$2.58	3d	1	1.00mi
27 Manila Ave Woodbridge, CT	3.0	1.0	1200	$2,590	$2.16	3d	1	1.06mi
804 Edgewood Ave Unit 2 New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	1613	$2,800	$1.74	44d	1	1.06mi
1946 Chapel St Unit 2nd Floor New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	1115	$3,000	$2.69	11d	1	1.20mi
330 Blake St Unit C-2 New Haven, CT	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,995	$1.66	24d	1	1.27mi
151 Fitch St #161 New Haven, CT	3.0	2.0	2200	$2,481	$1.13	44d	1	1.37mi
134 Hubinger St Unit 2 New Haven, CT	3.0	2.0	1358	$2,700	$1.99	44d	1	1.41mi
134 Hubinger St Unit 2 New Haven, CT	3.0	2.0	1358	$2,700	$1.99	24d	1	1.41mi
49 Hubinger St New Haven, CT	4.0	1.5	2000	$2,950	$1.48	3d	1	1.43mi
41 Osborn Ave New Haven, CT	5.0	1.5	1500	$1,800	$1.20	4d	1	1.45mi
300 Dyer St New Haven, CT	4.0	2.0	1350	$6,500	$4.81	44d	1	1.46mi
26 Whittlesey Ave Unit 2 New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,900	$1.46	15d	1	1.50mi
26 Whittlesey Ave Unit 1 New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,900	$1.46	44d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-03-17
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-03-05
   listed $299,999 Active
3. 2010-03-10
   soldstatus $206,000
4. 2010-03-08
   soldstatus $200,500 80-char remark

   Show marketing remark (80 chars)

   4 Bedroom 1.1 Bath colonial in lovely residential area near hamden, brand new ro

5. 2010-02-05
   listed $219,900 80-char remark

   Show marketing remark (80 chars)

   4 Bedroom 1.1 Bath colonial in lovely residential area near hamden, brand new ro

6. 2009-08-29
   historical
7. 2009-06-03
   listed $219,900
8. 2009-05-20
   soldstatus $140,000
9. 2009-02-05
   listed $149,900
10. 2007-07-11
    soldstatus $270,000
11. 2007-07-11
    soldstatus $270,000
12. 2007-02-20
    listed $254,900
13. 2007-02-20
    listed $254,900
14. 2006-12-31
    historical
15. 2006-07-14
    listed $269,900
16. 2006-06-12
    soldstatus $250,000
17. 2005-10-20
    soldstatus $165,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,242 · $520/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,331 · $528/mo
• Expected delta: +$89/yr (+$7/mo · 1.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,843
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$6,242
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,707
• − Management: −$2,707
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$4,846
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,163
• After-tax cash flow: $1,278/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Haven School District
• NCES district ID: 0902790
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $38,058
• Composite: 15.48/100
• National rank: #9308
• State rank: #147 of 153 in CT

Livability — New Haven

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #2190

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C+ Crime F Employment D Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Haven, CT
• County: New Haven County · 688,236 people
• City population: 132,813
• Metro: New Haven-Milford, CT
• Population (ZIP): 19,006
• Household income: $73,709
• Rent vs Own: 58.5% rent · 41.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1156.0

Population outlook (South Central Connecticut County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 608,362

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Black 31% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 13% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 14%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Scotch-Irish 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · South Central Connecticut

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.1) · D 59.0% · R 38.9% · Other 2.1%
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.45%
• Current HPI: 317.0482
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.42%
• Metro: New Haven-Milford, CT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

+81.8% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Pending — Smart MLS
• 2026-03-05 Listed $299,999 Smart MLS
• 2010-03-10 Sold (MLS) $206,000 Smart MLS
• 2010-03-08 Sold (MLS) $200,500 Smart MLS
• 2010-02-05 Listed $219,900 Smart MLS
• 2009-08-29 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2009-06-03 Listed $219,900 Smart MLS
• 2009-05-20 Sold (MLS) $140,000 Smart MLS
• 2009-02-05 Listed $149,900 Smart MLS
• 2007-07-11 Sold (Public Records) $270,000 Public Records
• 2007-07-11 Sold (MLS) $270,000 Smart MLS
• 2007-02-20 Listed $254,900 Smart MLS
• 2007-02-20 Listed $254,900 Smart MLS
• 2006-12-31 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2006-07-14 Listed $269,900 Smart MLS
• 2006-06-12 Sold (Public Records) $250,000 Public Records
• 2005-10-20 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2023): $6,242 · -6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.