7930 SE 34th St #203 · Mercer Island, WA 98040

$508,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,029 sqft · Condo public records · 59 Days on market

Built 1981 $494/sqft · 15% below area Est $601k · 15% under $766/mo HOA · 27% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.5/15.0
• Schools +8.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Cash flow +2.8/30.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The easy, one-level layout features stairless access and expansive windows framing lovely greenery beyond. Relax or gather with friends in the living room spilling out to a generous deck…the perfect spot for summer grilling, morning coffee, or a container garden with views to the park-like grounds and pond. An open dining area adjacent to the kitchen makes hosting a breeze. Your generous primary bedroom with walk-in closet, plus a second bedroom, generous full bathroom, and in-unit laundry duo are all just down the hall. Don’t miss the custom cabinets in the foyer for extra storage! Enjoy amenities such as a lobby, game room, storage room, and serene walking trails. Farmers Mar

Key facts

• Stairless access
• Custom cabinets
• Open dining area

Tags

• STAIRLESS ACCESS
• EXPANSIVE WINDOWS
• GENEROUS DECK
• OPEN DINING AREA
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• CUSTOM CABINETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $508k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-20k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $209k (58.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $285k (44.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (58.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 2.3% vs local median 1.1% in Mercer Island — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#154 in WA, #3,481 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, commute A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Mercer Island School District (suburban): math 83% / reading 87% proficiency, ranked #1 of 291 in WA (top 0%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 3% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 128 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,555 units permitted in King County in 2024 (7,119 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($219k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $-1k appreciation (-0.2% local appreciation)).
• King County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($493k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $214k; list at $508k implies a 137% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 27% of rent.

Recommended offer $209,285 (58.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 59% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.27%
• DSCR: 0.37
• GRM: 14.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $601,074
• List price: $508,000
• Delta: -15.48%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.25% appreciation · 0.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-135,126
• Equity at exit: $141,069

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.56×
• Total profit: $-221,868
• Equity at exit: $164,515

Cash invested: $142,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98040

• Home prices YoY: -0.1%
• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 128
• Price-to-rent: 14.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,846 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,664
• Tax from tax record: −$298 /mo · $3,573/yr
• Insurance: −$212
• HOA: −$766
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$598
• Net cashflow: $-1,691

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,987

Max offer price $209,285

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,403	-5% $-1,547	+0% $-1,691	+5% $-1,835	+10% $-1,979
Rent	-10% $-1,916	-5% $-1,803	+0% $-1,691	+5% $-1,579	+10% $-1,466
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,435	-0.5pp $-1,562	base $-1,691	+0.5pp $-1,823	+1.0pp $-1,957

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $127,000
• Closing costs: $15,240
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7930 SE 34th St #306 Mercer Island, WA	2.0	1.5	1061	$3,000	$2.83	3d	1	0.03mi
3224 80th Ave SE Apt 1 Mercer Island, WA	2.0	2.0	1145	$3,095	$2.70	25d	1	0.11mi
3220 81st Pl SE Unit 110 Mercer Island, WA	2.0	2.0	1091	$2,995	$2.75	1d	1	0.15mi
3011 78th Ave SE Mercer Island, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	920	$2,825	$3.07	1d	4	0.23mi
3011 78th Ave SE Mercer Island, WA	1.0	1.0	800	$2,225	$2.78	15d	1	0.23mi
3015 81st Pl SE Unit 204 Mercer Island, WA	2.0	1.0	825	$2,325	$2.82	1d	1	0.26mi
2939 76th Ave SE Unit 43C Mercer Island, WA	2.0	2.0	918	$2,800	$3.05	44d	1	0.34mi
2929 76th Ave SE #411 Mercer Island, WA	2.0	2.0	1240	$3,300	$2.66	1d	1	0.36mi
2820 75th Pl SE Apt 103 Mercer Island, WA	2.0	1.0	850	$2,499	$2.94	1d	1	0.40mi
2758 78th Ave SE Mercer Island, WA	2.0	1.0–2.0	903	$4,168	$4.62	1d	14	0.42mi
7505 SE 28th St Mercer Island, WA	1.0	1.0	750	$2,030	$2.71	44d	1	0.43mi
2717 76th Ave SE Unit MM104 Mercer Island, WA	1.0	1.0	725	$2,250	$3.10	1d	1	0.48mi
2717 76th Ave SE Unit MM207 Mercer Island, WA	2.0	1.0	1015	$2,500	$2.46	1d	1	0.48mi
2717 76th Ave SE Unit MM201 Mercer Island, WA	2.0	1.0	812	$2,300	$2.83	44d	1	0.48mi
2805 75th Pl SE Mercer Island, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0	775	$2,495	$3.22	1d	2	0.49mi
7650 SE 27th St Mercer Island, WA	1.0	1.0	635	$3,150	$4.96	1d	4	0.50mi
2630 77th Ave SE Mercer Island, WA	3.0	1.0–2.0	1210	$5,093	$4.21	1d	9	0.50mi
3209 Shorewood Dr Mercer Island, WA	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1022	$2,669	$2.61	1d	47	0.57mi
2500 81st Ave SE #103 Mercer Island, WA	1.0	1.0	715	$1,950	$2.73	5d	1	0.59mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $766 · $9,192/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-17
   price $508,000
2. 2026-03-31
   listed $520,000 Active
3. 2023-10-20
   historical $1,950
4. 2023-09-30
   price $1,950
5. 2023-09-15
   listed $2,200
6. 2005-01-25
   soldstatus $214,000
7. 2002-08-01
   soldstatus $197,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,573 · $298/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,978 · $415/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,406/yr (+$117/mo · 39.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,153
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,456
• − Property taxes: −$3,573
• − Insurance: −$2,540
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,732
• − Management: −$2,732
• − HOA: −$9,192
• − Depreciation: −$14,778
• Taxable loss: −$29,850
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,164
• After-tax cash flow: $-13,128/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mercer Island School District
• NCES district ID: 5304980
• Math proficiency: 83% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 87% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $124,902
• Composite: 79.53/100
• National rank: #97
• State rank: #1 of 291 in WA

Livability — Mercer Island

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #154
• US rank: #3481

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mercer Island, WA
• County: King County · 2,251,916 people
• City population: 25,307
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• Population (ZIP): 25,307
• Household income: $219,069
• Rent vs Own: 33.0% rent · 67.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 847.0

Population outlook (King County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,576,485 people
• By 2030: 2,803,316 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 3,255,921 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 3,706,444 · +43.9%
• By 2075: 4,746,063 · +84.2%
• By 2100: 5,407,730 · +109.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Asian 22% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Portuguese 4% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 24% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Chinese 9% Other Indo-European 5% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · King

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+51.7) · D 74.2% · R 22.5% · Other 3.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.6pp toward D · 2008: 42.1pp · 2024: 51.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+51.7 2020: D+52.7 2016: D+50.4 2012: D+39.9 2008: D+42.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.25%
• Current HPI: 323.6615
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.56%
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+157.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Price Changed $508,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Listed $520,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-20 Rental Removed $1,950 NWMLS
• 2023-09-30 Price Changed $1,950 NWMLS
• 2023-09-15 Listed for Rent $2,200 NWMLS
• 2005-01-25 Sold (Public Records) $214,000 Public Records
• 2002-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $197,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,573 · -16.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.