7155 83rd Dr E · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34201

$259,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,596 sqft · Condo public records · 197 Days on market

Built 2005 $425/mo HOA · 14% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

GREAT LOCATION! 3 Bedroom, 2 1/2 Bath Townhouse with attached garage. Located just off University Parkway, minutes from new University Town Mall, shopping, dining and just a short drive to world renowned beaches. Over 1,500 square feet of living space plus enclosed Florida Room. A great place to call home. Nice clean unit.

Key facts

• Gated residence
• Large living room
• Crown molding

Tags

• GATED RESIDENCE
• OPEN KITCHEN
• BREAKFAST BAR
• CROWN MOLDING
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• LARGE LIVING ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Tax year 2024 (tax amount available in listing details); Living area reported as 1,596 square feet; building area reported as 2,018 square feet
• Financial info: Total monthly fees $425; total annual fees $5,100; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA managed by Advance Management; Monthly HOA fee of $425; HOA includes pool and structure maintenance; Buyer approval required for association; Deed restrictions; Community pool; Community playground; Sidewalks; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Townhouse; Residential property; Two stories; Faces north; Second-floor unit
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Building constructed as part of a larger complex (building number 10)
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Screened patio/porch; Playground on site; Sidewalks; Sliding doors

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: High ceilings; Open floor plan
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $96 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $260k).
• Recommended offer: $229k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.3% in Lakewood Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 102 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.6%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 197 days — a 12% lower offer ($229k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $156k; list at $260k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $228,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 197 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.59%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.61% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-20,219
• Equity at exit: $55,185

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $5,602
• Equity at exit: $51,733

Cash invested: $72,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34201

• Home prices YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 102
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,934 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$325 /mo · $3,901/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$425
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$616
• Net cashflow: $96

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,812

Max offer price $259,900

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,975
• Closing costs: $7,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 37 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7151 83rd Dr E Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1596	$2,095	$1.31	15d	1	0.19mi
7755 Plantation Cir Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1282	$2,600	$2.03	23d	1	0.28mi
7654 Plantation Cir Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.5	1156	$2,150	$1.86	15d	1	0.38mi
6939 Lennox Pl University Park, FL	3.0	2.0	2034	$8,300	$4.08	23d	1	0.53mi
6909 Lennox Pl University Park, FL	3.0	2.0	2032	$6,500	$3.20	15d	1	0.56mi
6920 Lennox Pl University Park, FL	3.0	2.0	2044	$8,300	$4.06	23d	1	0.58mi
8925 77th Ter E Lakewood Ranch, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1049	$4,200	$4.00	15d	67	0.98mi
6211 Timber Lake Dr Unit B9 Sarasota, FL	2.0	2.0	1274	$1,750	$1.37	23d	1	1.03mi
7911 Whitebridge Gln University Park, FL	2.0	2.0	1721	$6,500	$3.78	23d	1	1.05mi
6191 Timber Lake Dr Unit A6 Sarasota, FL	2.0	2.0	1178	$1,600	$1.36	23d	1	1.06mi
7725 Whitebridge Gln University Park, FL	2.0	2.0	1344	$5,250	$3.91	23d	1	1.06mi
7711 Whitebridge Gln University Park, FL	2.0	2.0	1609	$2,500	$1.55	23d	1	1.09mi
6104 Turnbury Park Dr Sarasota, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1065	$2,505	$2.35	1d	29	1.15mi
8926 Manor Loop Lakewood Ranch, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1165	$2,700	$2.32	23d	2	1.17mi
8926 Manor Loop #201 Lakewood Ranch, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,700	$2.16	14d	1	1.17mi
8917 Manor Loop #205 Lakewood Ranch, FL	2.0	2.0	1080	$2,150	$1.99	23d	1	1.19mi
8932 Manor Loop #205 Lakewood Ranch, FL	2.0	2.0	1080	$1,900	$1.76	23d	1	1.20mi
6120 Country Club Way #207 Sarasota, FL	2.0	2.0	1400	$1,950	$1.39	23d	1	1.23mi
8911 Manor Loop #205 Lakewood Ranch, FL	3.0	2.0	1490	$1,950	$1.31	21d	1	1.24mi
5924 Clubside Dr Sarasota, FL	2.0	2.0	1380	$2,500	$1.81	23d	1	1.25mi
6110 Country Club Way #201 Sarasota, FL	2.0	2.0	1400	$4,000	$2.86	23d	1	1.25mi
7135 Kensington Ct University Park, FL	2.0	2.0	2208	$7,000	$3.17	23d	1	1.29mi
6041 Clubside Dr Unit 6041 Sarasota, FL	2.0	2.0	1380	$2,950	$2.14	23d	1	1.31mi
8858 White Sage Loop Lakewood Ranch, FL	2.0	2.5	1064	$1,900	$1.79	3d	1	1.32mi
7405 Vista Way Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1324	$2,000	$1.51	23d	1	1.33mi
7428 Vista Way #105 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1224	$1,900	$1.55	23d	1	1.35mi
8828 White Sage Loop Lakewood Ranch, FL	2.0	2.5	1092	$1,975	$1.81	3d	1	1.37mi
7411 Vista Way #203 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1080	$1,800	$1.67	23d	1	1.38mi
8808 White Sage Loop Lakewood Ranch, FL	2.0	2.5	1092	$2,300	$2.11	23d	1	1.40mi
5735 Gardens Dr Unit 5735 Sarasota, FL	2.0	1.0	1068	$2,000	$1.87	23d	1	1.40mi
8809 White Sage Loop Lakewood Ranch, FL	2.0	2.5	1064	$2,200	$2.07	11d	1	1.40mi
7417 Vista Way #105 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1224	$1,775	$1.45	23d	1	1.42mi
7350 Black Walnut Way Lakewood Ranch, FL	2.0	2.5	1064	$1,995	$1.88	23d	1	1.43mi
6718 Virginia Xing University Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1721	$5,250	$3.05	23d	1	1.44mi
7557 Fairlinks Ct Sarasota, FL	3.0	2.0	1782	$7,000	$3.93	23d	1	1.45mi
7341 Black Walnut Way Lakewood Ranch, FL	2.0	2.5	1100	$2,300	$2.09	23d	1	1.46mi
8100 Natures Way Lakewood Ranch, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1091	$2,288	$2.10	1d	19	1.47mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $425 · $5,100/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $259,900 Active 197 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $259,900 Active 196 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $259,900 Active 195 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $259,900 Active 194 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $259,900 Active 192 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $259,900 Active 191 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $265,000 Active 189 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $265,000 Active 188 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $265,000 Active 187 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $265,000 Active 186 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $265,000 Active 182 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $265,000 Active 181 DOM
13. 2026-04-20
    price $265,000
14. 2026-02-15
    price $269,900
15. 2026-02-09
    price $274,900
16. 2026-02-02
    price $275,900
17. 2025-12-01
    listed $279,900 Active
18. 2022-03-31
    price $2,500
19. 2013-07-11
    soldstatus $155,500
20. 2013-06-28
    soldstatus $155,000 324-char remark

    Show marketing remark (324 chars)

    GREAT LOCATION! 3 Bedroom, 2 1/2 Bath Townhouse with attached garage. Located just off University Parkway, minutes from new University Town Mall, shopping, dining and just a short drive to world renowned beaches. Over 1,500 square feet of living space plus enclosed Florida Room. A great place to call home. Nice clean unit.

21. 2013-03-11
    listed $159,900 324-char remark

    Show marketing remark (324 chars)

    GREAT LOCATION! 3 Bedroom, 2 1/2 Bath Townhouse with attached garage. Located just off University Parkway, minutes from new University Town Mall, shopping, dining and just a short drive to world renowned beaches. Over 1,500 square feet of living space plus enclosed Florida Room. A great place to call home. Nice clean unit.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,901 · $325/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,901 · $325/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,207
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,558
• − Property taxes: −$3,901
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,817
• − Management: −$2,817
• − HOA: −$5,100
• − Depreciation: −$7,561
• Taxable loss: −$2,846
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$683
• After-tax cash flow: $1,841/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• City population: 52,177
• Population (ZIP): 3,993

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Romanian 6% Scotch-Irish 3%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, South Korea, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · German/W. Germanic 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 6% Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.61%
• Current HPI: 173.9689
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+65.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $265,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-15 Price Changed $269,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $274,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-02 Price Changed $275,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-01 Listed $279,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-31 Price Changed $2,500 RENT.
• 2013-07-11 Sold (Public Records) $155,500 Public Records
• 2013-06-28 Sold (MLS) $155,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-03-11 Listed $159,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,901 · -2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.