10537 Picnic Dr · Cienega Springs, AZ 85344

$185,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured public records · 206 Days on market

Built 1973 5,663 sqft lot $175/sqft · at area comps Est $188k · at est. ↓ 7% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.2/15.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

On two Lots with plenty of room for RVs, boats, and guest parking, this property is a great starter home, investment rental, or tear-down opportunity to build your dream toy barn. The existing home features two bedrooms and one bathroom, plus an add-on area already equipped with a window, door and closets, making it easy to convert into a third bedroom. A spacious laundry/utility room provides additional storage and flexibility. Outside you'll find a large storage building that could be transformed into a guest quarters, workshop, or mancave. With a little imagination, the possibilities are endless. Located close to the river and desert, you'll enjoy year-round outdoor activities. Best of all, there's no HOA, and the property is situated on deeded land. Call Today!

Key facts

• Guest parking
• Two lots
• Add-on area

Tags

• TWO LOTS
• ROOM FOR RVS
• GUEST PARKING
• ADD-ON AREA
• SPACIOUS LAUNDRY UTILITY ROOM
• LARGE STORAGE BUILDING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $722 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• Recommended offer: $163k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 2.2% in Cienega Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#107 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Parker Unified School District (4510) (town): math 18% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #200 of 249 in AZ (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 147 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 92 units permitted in La Paz County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• La Paz County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 206 days — a 12% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 206 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.74%
• DSCR: 1.74
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $187,787
• List price: $185,000
• Delta: -1.48%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10872 Crystal Cyn W	0.30mi	2/1.0	980 (-7%)	8mo	$205,000	$209	68
10824 Crystal Canyon Cyn Unit 163/64	0.24mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,080 (+2%)	13mo	$203,000	$188	65
10936 Captain Ln	0.36mi	2/2.0	1,066 (+1%)	16mo	$220,000	$206	64
31379 Commercial Dr	0.42mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,044 (-1%)	5mo	$140,000	$134	63
10721 Admiral Rd	0.22mi	2/2.0	900 (-15%)	6mo	$170,000	$189	56
31694 Horizon Blvd	0.39mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,172 (+11%)	6mo	$200,000	$171	54
10938 Captain Ln	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+9%)	13mo	$179,999	$156	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $15,955
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.41×
• Total profit: $72,823
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85344

• Active inventory: 147
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,300 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$47 /mo · $568/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $722

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,386

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9046 Lakeview Dr Parker, AZ	3.0	2.0	1320	$2,300	$1.74	13d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 206 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 205 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 204 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 203 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $185,000 Active 201 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 200 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $185,000 Active 198 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 197 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,000 Active 196 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $185,000 Active 195 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $185,000 Active 192 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $185,000 Active 191 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,000 Active 190 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,000 Active 189 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 188 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $185,000 Active 187 DOM
17. 2026-05-20
    price $185,000 777-char remark

    Show marketing remark (777 chars)

    On two Lots with plenty of room for RVs, boats, and guest parking, this property is a great starter home, investment rental, or tear-down opportunity to build your dream toy barn. The existing home features two bedrooms and one bathroom, plus an add-on area already equipped with a window, door and closets, making it easy to convert into a third bedroom. A spacious laundry/utility room provides additional storage and flexibility. Outside you'll find a large storage building that could be transformed into a guest quarters, workshop, or mancave. With a little imagination, the possibilities are endless. Located close to the river and desert, you'll enjoy year-round outdoor activities. Best of all, there's no HOA, and the property is situated on deeded land. Call Today!

18. 2025-11-25
    listed $199,900 Active 777-char remark

    Show marketing remark (777 chars)

    On two Lots with plenty of room for RVs, boats, and guest parking, this property is a great starter home, investment rental, or tear-down opportunity to build your dream toy barn. The existing home features two bedrooms and one bathroom, plus an add-on area already equipped with a window, door and closets, making it easy to convert into a third bedroom. A spacious laundry/utility room provides additional storage and flexibility. Outside you'll find a large storage building that could be transformed into a guest quarters, workshop, or mancave. With a little imagination, the possibilities are endless. Located close to the river and desert, you'll enjoy year-round outdoor activities. Best of all, there's no HOA, and the property is situated on deeded land. Call Today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $568 · $47/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,221 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: +$653/yr (+$54/mo · 115.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥115°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$568
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,208
• − Management: −$2,208
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable income: $5,946
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,427
• After-tax cash flow: $7,242/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Parker Unified School District (4510)
• NCES district ID: 0405980
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $34,354
• Composite: 14.76/100
• National rank: #9392
• State rank: #200 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Cienega Springs

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #107
• US rank: #14934

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cienega Springs, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 9,069

Population outlook (La Paz County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,409 people
• By 2030: 17,592 · -4.4%
• By 2040: 16,600 · -9.8%
• By 2050: 16,328 · -11.3%
• By 2075: 17,075 · -7.2%
• By 2100: 17,042 · -7.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 34% Native American 23% Two or more races 19% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · La Paz

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.2) · D 27.6% · R 71.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.7pp toward R · 2008: -28.5pp · 2024: -44.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.2 2020: R+38.8 2016: R+41.8 2012: R+32.2 2008: R+28.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -155.38%
• Current HPI: 198.2271
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-7.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $185,000 LHAR
• 2025-11-25 Listed $199,900 LHAR

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $568 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.