202 Hollywood St · Arp, TX 75750

$137,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,102 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 54 Days on market

Built 1963 $125/sqft · 12% below area Est $156k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.5/30.0
• ARV discount +12.8/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Clean and move-in-ready in the HEART OF ARP!!! Updates include paint, flooring, windows, cabinets, counters. Solid brick exterior, metal roof, fenced backyard, low-maintenance and upkeep, excellent price point!

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Solid brick exterior
• Fenced backyard

Tags

• SOLID BRICK EXTERIOR
• METAL ROOF
• FENCED BACKYARD
• LOW MAINTENANCE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $138k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $131 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $138k).
• Recommended offer: $133k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#442 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D+, employment D, amenities F.
• Arp ISD (rural): math 37% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #400 of 826 in TX (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 595 units permitted in Smith County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($951 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Smith County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($133k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $133,375 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.08%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $155,692
• List price: $137,500
• Delta: -11.68%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
116 S Barron St	0.40mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,132 (+3%)	12mo	$145,000	$128	58
112 Allen St	0.36mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,214 (+10%)	12mo	$168,900	$139	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.16×
• Total profit: $83,259
• Equity at exit: $123,871

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.20×
• Total profit: $238,693
• Equity at exit: $267,132

Cash invested: $38,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75750

• Home prices YoY: 12.3%
• Active inventory: 61
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,395 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$721
• Tax from tax record: −$193 /mo · $2,313/yr
• Insurance: −$57
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $131

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,229

Max offer price $137,500

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,375
• Closing costs: $4,125
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
109 Cook St #2 Arp, TX	3.0	2.0	1098	$1,395	$1.27	13d	1	0.35mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-03
   status $137,500 Pending 54 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $137,500 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $137,500 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $137,500 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $137,500 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-04-09
   listed $137,500 Active 210-char remark

   Show marketing remark (210 chars)

   Clean and move-in-ready in the HEART OF ARP!!! Updates include paint, flooring, windows, cabinets, counters. Solid brick exterior, metal roof, fenced backyard, low-maintenance and upkeep, excellent price point!

7. 2026-03-05
   historical $1,100
8. 2026-02-03
   listed $1,100
9. 2008-12-01
   soldstatus
10. 2003-02-17
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,313 · $193/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,516 · $210/mo
• Expected delta: +$203/yr (+$17/mo · 8.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 66% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,740
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,702
• − Property taxes: −$2,313
• − Insurance: −$688
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,339
• − Management: −$1,339
• − Depreciation: −$4,000
• Taxable loss: −$641
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$154
• After-tax cash flow: $1,725/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Arp ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808730
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,075
• Composite: 34.58/100
• National rank: #5165
• State rank: #400 of 826 in TX

Livability — Arp

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #442
• US rank: #9054

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Arp, TX
• Population (ZIP): 3,246

Population outlook (Smith County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,890 people
• By 2030: 261,665 · +5.1%
• By 2040: 286,114 · +15.0%
• By 2050: 308,006 · +23.8%
• By 2075: 354,171 · +42.3%
• By 2100: 372,828 · +49.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 12% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Portuguese 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Smith

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.1) · D 27.0% · R 72.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.6pp toward R · 2008: -39.5pp · 2024: -45.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.1 2020: R+39.4 2016: R+43.9 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+39.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 32.45%
• Current HPI: 296.73
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+12400.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Listed $137,500 GTAR
• 2026-03-05 Rental Removed $1,100 TURBOTENANT
• 2026-02-03 Listed for Rent $1,100 TURBOTENANT
• 2008-12-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-02-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+9.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,313 · +13.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.