DENTON Plan · Godley, TX 76044

$286,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,573 sqft · SingleFamily · 110 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Denton is a thoughtfully designed single-story home offering approximately 1,573 sq. ft. of living space with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. A welcoming front porch opens into a defined foyer that leads into an open-concept layout where the kitchen, dining area, and family room come together in one bright, connected living space-ideal for both daily life and entertaining. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, generous counter space, a centrally located island with sink overlooking the family room, and a walk-in pantry for added storage. The adjacent dining area flows seamlessly into the spacious family room, creating a comfortable central gathering space.

Key facts

• Defined foyer
• Open-concept layout
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• WELCOMING FRONT PORCH
• DEFINED FOYER
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GENEROUS COUNTER SPACE
• CENTRALLY LOCATED ISLAND

🏗️ New construction. The $286,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $362,167.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $287k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-575 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $279k (2.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $244k (15.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $244k (15.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.5% in Godley — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#226 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Godley ISD (rural): math 34% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #466 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Legacy El (math 39% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,709 of 4,322 statewide, top 40%, 408 students, 32% FRL); Godley H S (math 27% / reading 51%, grade F, #859 of 1,632 statewide, top 53%, 777 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: 724 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 106d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 78% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $244,077 (15.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.80%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $362,167
• List price: $286,990
• Delta: -20.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
108 N 2nd St	0.37mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,574 (+0%)	11mo	$305,000	$194	64
301 N 2nd St	0.27mi	3/2.5	1,664 (+6%)	17mo	$330,000	$198	61
300 W Godley Ave	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,531 (-3%)	10mo	$265,000	$173	60
214 Rees Ave	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,528 (-3%)	2mo	$319,900	$209	59
500 Highview Ct	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,712 (+9%)	12mo	$348,000	$203	56
568 Highview Ct	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,713 (+9%)	3mo	$360,000	$210	55
517 Highview Ct	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,798 (+14%)	5mo	$335,000	$186	50
216 Rees Ave	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,635 (+4%)	10mo	$299,900	$183	50
956 Tesslynn Ave	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,729 (+10%)	15mo	$354,990	$205	48
15532 FM 2331	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,672 (+6%)	15mo	$268,990	$161	48
109 S 6th St	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,375 (-13%)	12mo	$284,500	$207	40
200 High Ridge Ct	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,762 (+12%)	9mo	$369,000	$209	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-95,249
• Equity at exit: $54,000

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.28×
• Total profit: $-129,919
• Equity at exit: $31,314

Cash invested: $101,407 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 42 active · 12 under contract
• Months of supply: 21.0 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $310,490 ($180/sqft)
• Median days on market: 83 d
• This list price: 17% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +28.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76044

• Home prices YoY: -12.4%
• Active inventory: 724
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,441 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,899
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$453 /mo · $5,433/yr
• Insurance: −$151
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$513
• Net cashflow: $-575

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,168

Max offer price $279,015

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-324	-5% $-450	+0% $-575	+5% $-700	+10% $-825
Rent	-10% $-767	-5% $-671	+0% $-575	+5% $-478	+10% $-382
Rate	-1.0pp $-392	-0.5pp $-483	base $-575	+0.5pp $-668	+1.0pp $-764

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $90,542
• Closing costs: $10,865
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
812 Rodgers Ave Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1747	$2,600	$1.49	139d	1	0.25mi
644 The Cottages Dr Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1662	$1,995	$1.20	139d	1	0.44mi
201 Cliff Ct Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1852	$2,900	$1.57	106d	1	0.52mi
1032 Fairfax Dr Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1672	$2,300	$1.38	35d	1	0.87mi
226 Harp Ave Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1737	$2,375	$1.37	86d	1	0.90mi
226 Harp Ave Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1737	$2,300	$1.32	27d	1	0.90mi
920 Elk Ridge Run Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1683	$2,499	$1.48	107d	1	1.24mi
920 Elk Ridge Run Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1692	$2,499	$1.48	112d	1	1.24mi
13404 Balderdash Ct Godley, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–2.5	2025	$2,270	$1.12	0d	1	1.25mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 708 Archer St, Godley TX 76044Status: Active
• Financial info: List price $286,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family plan (DENTON)
• Exterior features: Living area of 1,573 (living area value provided)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Active new-construction plan (DENTON)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $286,990 Active 110 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $286,990 Active 109 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $286,990 Active 108 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $286,990 Active 107 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $286,990 Active 106 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $286,990 Active 105 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $286,990 Active 104 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $286,990 Active 103 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $286,990 Active 102 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $286,990 Active 101 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $286,990 Active 100 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $286,990 Active 99 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $286,990 Active 98 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $286,990 Active 97 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $286,990 Active 91 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $286,990 Active 90 DOM
17. 2026-09-02
    days on market $286,990 Active 88 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $286,990 Active 86 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $286,990 Active 84 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $286,990 Active 83 DOM
21. 2026-08-26
    days on market $286,990 Active 81 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $286,990 Active 80 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $286,990 Active 79 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $286,990 Active 78 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $286,990 Active 77 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $286,990 Active 76 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $286,990 Active 75 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $286,990 Active 74 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $286,990 Active 73 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $286,990 Active 72 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $286,990 Active 71 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $286,990 Active 70 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $286,990 Active 69 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $286,990 Active 68 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $286,990 Active 67 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $286,990 Active 66 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $286,990 Active 65 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $286,990 Active 64 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $286,990 Active 63 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $286,990 Active 61 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $286,990 Active 60 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $286,990 Active 59 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $286,990 Active 58 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $286,990 Active 55 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $286,990 Active 54 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $286,990 Active 53 DOM
47. 2026-07-28
    days on market $286,990 Active 52 DOM
48. 2026-07-26
    days on market $286,990 Active 50 DOM
49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $286,990 Active 48 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $286,990 Active 47 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,289
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,287
• − Property taxes: −$5,433
• − Insurance: −$1,811
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,343
• − Management: −$2,343
• − Depreciation: −$10,536
• Taxable loss: −$13,463
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,231
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,665/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-story home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good return on investment with minimal updates needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase property value and attract tech-savvy buyers ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 39/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Godley El Middle Godley Middle High Godley H S F TX #859/1,632 Nat'l #8,724/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Godley ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820960
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $59,332
• Composite: 32.06/100
• National rank: #5820
• State rank: #466 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Godley

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #226
• US rank: #5528

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Godley, TX
• County: Johnson · 179,678 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 8,759
• Household income: $103,795
• Rent vs Own: 10.3% rent · 89.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 4% of renters

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Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 9% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 11%

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Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -36.58%
• Current HPI: 259.1029
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 708 Archer St, Godley TX 76044Status: Active
• Financial info: List price $286,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family plan (DENTON)
• Exterior features: Living area of 1,573 (living area value provided)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Active new-construction plan (DENTON)