5347 Lake Ave · West Seneca, NY 14127

$249,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1952 5,200 sqft lot $226/sqft · 15% below area Est $295k · 15% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.5/15.0
• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

There’s nothing to do here but move right in. This 3-bedroom/1-bath ranch has been totally remodeled inside and out. It features new roof, windows, floors, cupboards, countertops, appliances, Navien tankless hot water system, doors, lighting, mechanicals, bathroom, mini-split unit in living room, central air, glass block windows in basement, cement driveway, composite front deck, and deep backyard. There's also a small bonus room that can be used as an office or hobby space. Nothing says “welcome home” like this one.

Key facts

• New floors
• New cupboards
• New appliances

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW FLOORS
• NEW CUPBOARDS
• NEW COUNTERTOPS
• NEW APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story home; Vinyl siding; Existing construction; Poured foundation
• Construction: Built as existing (year built details listed as existing); Vinyl siding; Poured foundation
• Exterior features: Concrete driveway; Rectangular lot (50 x 104); Road frontage on a main thoroughfare

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced air heating; Ductless heating; Central air; Ductless cooling
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Home office; Pull-down attic stairs; Bedroom on main level; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement; Tankless water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-214 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $211k (15.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (21.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (21.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.7% in West Seneca — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#130 in NY, #2,089 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities D, commute F.
• Orchard Park Central School District (suburban): math 57% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #158 of 590 in NY (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Windom Elementary School (math 53% / reading 68%, grade B-, #741 of 2,108 statewide, top 35%, 611 students, 29% FRL); Orchard Park Middle School (math 26% / reading 69%, grade C-, #306 of 729 statewide, top 43%, 1,059 students, 15% FRL); Orchard Park High School (math 100% / reading 87%, grade A+, #141 of 1,100 statewide, top 13%, 1,385 students, 16% FRL).
• Market conditions: 144 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $194,443 (21.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.68%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $294,646
• List price: $249,000
• Delta: -15.49%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5300 Lake Ave	0.08mi	3/1.0	998 (-9%)	2mo	$225,000	$225	76
5113 Lake Ave	0.36mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,080 (-2%)	6mo	$256,000	$237	66
5244 Lake Ave	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+14%)	8mo	$310,000	$248	64
3161 Abbott Rd	0.51mi	3/1.0	1,027 (-7%)	2mo	$237,500	$231	60
41 Hillside Ave	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,073 (-2%)	12mo	$255,000	$238	59
160 Bielak Rd	0.42mi	3/1.0	1,170 (+6%)	10mo	$250,000	$214	57
180 Burmon Dr	0.44mi	3/1.0	1,014 (-8%)	9mo	$270,000	$266	55
183.5 Vistula Ave	0.34mi	3/1.0	1,040 (-6%)	20mo	$179,500	$173	54
152 Burmon Dr	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,007 (-8%)	7mo	$271,000	$269	54
359 Lakeview Ave	0.31mi	3/1.0	1,230 (+12%)	10mo	$220,000	$179	54
188 Burmon Dr	0.44mi	3/1.0	988 (-10%)	12mo	$280,188	$284	48
64 Burmon Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+9%)	10mo	$241,200	$201	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-53,910
• Equity at exit: $37,127

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-64,275
• Equity at exit: $21,529

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14127

• Home prices YoY: -33.6%
• Active inventory: 144
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,944 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$340 /mo · $4,083/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $-214

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,215

Max offer price $211,256

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-73	-5% $-143	+0% $-214	+5% $-284	+10% $-355
Rent	-10% $-367	-5% $-290	+0% $-214	+5% $-137	+10% $-60
Rate	-1.0pp $-88	-0.5pp $-150	base $-214	+0.5pp $-278	+1.0pp $-344

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
158 South Dr Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.5	1380	$2,500	$1.81	3d	1	0.99mi
3835 Teachers Ln Orchard Park, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	980	$1,410	$1.44	3d	1	1.29mi
3400 McKinley Pkwy Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	908	$1,330	$1.46	3d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $249,000 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,000 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,000 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,000 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,000 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,000 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $249,000 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,000 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $249,000 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,000 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $249,000 Active 24 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,000 Active 23 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,000 Active 22 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,000 Active 21 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,000 Active 20 DOM
17. 2026-05-11
    listed $249,000 Active 540-char remark
18. 2026-02-20
    listed $299,000 Active
19. 2024-12-06
    historical
20. 2024-08-05
    listed $179,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,083 · $340/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,145 · $345/mo
• Expected delta: +$63/yr (+$5/mo · 1.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 6 d/yr ≥93°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,333
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$4,083
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,867
• − Management: −$1,867
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable loss: −$6,919
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,661
• After-tax cash flow: $-903/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orchard Park Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3621900
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $79,354
• Composite: 57.97/100
• National rank: #1039
• State rank: #158 of 590 in NY

Livability — West Seneca

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #130
• US rank: #2089

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 41,101
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 31,543
• Household income: $109,386
• Rent vs Own: 26.0% rent · 74.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 428.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -151.52%
• Current HPI: 298.7896
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+39.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $249,000 UNYREIS
• 2026-02-20 Listed $299,000 WNYREIS
• 2024-12-06 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-05 Listed $179,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,083 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.