26 Blair Dr · Vilonia, AR 72173

$228,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,694 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 89 Days on market

Built 2004 9,583 sqft lot $135/sqft · at area comps Est $233k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

26 Blair Drive is a 4 bedroom home in a well kept neighborhood that's close to town with a country feel and a beautiful sunset view. This move in ready home just needs a new owner. Call or text today for a showing!

Key facts

• 9,583 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2004

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $228k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-64 ($-768/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $217k (5.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (24.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (24.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.6% in Vilonia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#108 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Vilonia School District (rural): math 46% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #23 of 238 in AR (top 10%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 106 active listings in the ZIP; 865 units permitted in Faulkner County in 2024 (451 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Faulkner County population projected at +32% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $64k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($214k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $144k; list at $228k implies a 58% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,876 (24.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.20%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $233,066
• List price: $228,000
• Delta: -2.17%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
35 Blair Dr	0.04mi	4/2.0	1,827 (+8%)	3mo	$197,000	$108	83
15 Weatherton Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,764 (+4%)	2mo	$244,300	$138	73
95 Dove Ln	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,801 (+6%)	2mo	$290,000	$161	66
86 Dove Ln	0.41mi	4/2.0	1,835 (+8%)	6mo	$315,000	$172	62
6 Barnwood Dr	0.69mi	4/2.0	1,640 (-3%)	3mo	$208,750	$127	60
7 Hawk	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,559 (-8%)	2mo	$226,000	$145	60
4 Hawk Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,519 (-10%)	4mo	$220,000	$145	54
2 Farmhouse Cir	0.64mi	4/2.0	1,852 (+9%)	2mo	$233,000	$126	53
10 Barnwood Dr	0.68mi	4/2.0	1,852 (+9%)	3mo	$231,400	$125	51
77 Farmhouse Cir	0.75mi	4/2.0	1,852 (+9%)	4mo	$218,975	$118	46
4 Barnwood Dr	0.69mi	4/2.0	1,470 (-13%)	2mo	$202,900	$138	44
78 Farmhouse Cir	0.75mi	4/2.0	1,470 (-13%)	4mo	$191,925	$131	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.88×
• Total profit: $120,028
• Equity at exit: $205,400

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.58×
• Total profit: $356,533
• Equity at exit: $442,954

Cash invested: $63,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72173

• Home prices YoY: 8.0%
• Active inventory: 106
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,719 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,196
• Tax from tax record: −$131 /mo · $1,574/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $-64

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,800

Max offer price $216,688

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,000
• Closing costs: $6,840
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $228,000 Active 89 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $228,000 Active 88 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $228,000 Active 87 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $228,000 Active 86 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $228,000 Active 84 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $228,000 Active 83 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $228,000 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $228,000 Active 80 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $228,000 Active 79 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $228,000 Active 78 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $228,000 Active 74 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $228,000 Active 73 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $228,000 Active 72 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $228,000 Active 71 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $228,000 Active 70 DOM
16. 2026-05-06
    price $228,000 214-char remark

    Show marketing remark (214 chars)

    26 Blair Drive is a 4 bedroom home in a well kept neighborhood that's close to town with a country feel and a beautiful sunset view. This move in ready home just needs a new owner. Call or text today for a showing!

17. 2026-04-29
    price $238,000 214-char remark

    Show marketing remark (214 chars)

    26 Blair Drive is a 4 bedroom home in a well kept neighborhood that's close to town with a country feel and a beautiful sunset view. This move in ready home just needs a new owner. Call or text today for a showing!

18. 2026-03-21
    listed $240,000 New Listing 214-char remark

    Show marketing remark (214 chars)

    26 Blair Drive is a 4 bedroom home in a well kept neighborhood that's close to town with a country feel and a beautiful sunset view. This move in ready home just needs a new owner. Call or text today for a showing!

19. 2019-12-23
    soldstatus $144,500
20. 2016-10-19
    historical
21. 2016-09-09
    price $132,900
22. 2016-07-26
    listed $134,900 New Listing
23. 2006-09-06
    soldstatus $125,000
24. 2005-01-21
    soldstatus $104,000
25. 2004-06-15
    soldstatus $14,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,574 · $131/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,574 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,625
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,772
• − Property taxes: −$1,574
• − Insurance: −$1,140
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,650
• − Management: −$1,650
• − Depreciation: −$6,633
• Taxable loss: −$4,794
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,150
• After-tax cash flow: $382/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vilonia School District
• NCES district ID: 0513530
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $57,913
• Composite: 40.64/100
• National rank: #3681
• State rank: #23 of 238 in AR

Livability — Vilonia

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #108
• US rank: #10836

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Vilonia, AR
• Population (ZIP): 10,122

Population outlook (Faulkner County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,985 people
• By 2030: 148,264 · +6.7%
• By 2040: 166,010 · +19.4%
• By 2050: 183,362 · +31.9%
• By 2075: 224,593 · +61.6%
• By 2100: 250,603 · +80.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Scotch-Irish 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Faulkner

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.3) · D 32.6% · R 64.9% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.1pp toward R · 2008: -25.3pp · 2024: -32.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.3 2020: R+29.5 2016: R+31.6 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+25.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 22.08%
• Current HPI: 298.3398
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+1528.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $228,000 CARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $238,000 CARMLS
• 2026-03-21 Listed $240,000 CARMLS
• 2019-12-23 Sold (Public Records) $144,500 Public Records
• 2016-10-19 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2016-09-09 Price Changed $132,900 CARMLS
• 2016-07-26 Listed $134,900 CARMLS
• 2006-09-06 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2005-01-21 Sold (Public Records) $104,000 Public Records
• 2004-06-15 Sold (Public Records) $14,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,574 · +9.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.