4401 Camelot Pl · Bakersfield, CA 93301

$125,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Manufactured public records · 317 Days on market

Built 1983 $81/sqft · 53% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

RARE corner lot with garage door! This home has it all. Perfectly situated on a premier corner lot right next to the mail boxes and across the street from the golf course. Not many mobile homes can say they have an enclosed driveway (garage) with separate double shed for maximum storage. The kitchen was completely renovated and updated in 2023 with a custom coffee bar next to the pantry. This home has a large covered porch area with lovely rose bushes, plants, and faux grass at the rear of the yard. Completely fenced in for privacy and security. Less than a year old hardwood floors in the living area. Bedrooms have carpet. Mirror closet doors in secondary bedroom. Laundry is inside the home and laundry area can also serve as an office area. Separate formal living area and dining room, with family room (den) off kitchen. Master bedroom has private bathroom with Roman tub and stand up shower, and dual sinks. Second bedroom has ensuite bathroom that also connects to laundry room and has walk-in shower.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Fenced in
• Custom coffee bar

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• ENCLOSED DRIVEWAY
• DOUBLE SHED
• CUSTOM COFFEE BAR
• COVERED PORCH
• FENCED IN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $676 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.8% vs local median 3.6% in Bakersfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#716 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, schools D-, crime F.
• Kern High (urban): math 21% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #860 of 1,400 in CA (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.1%/yr); 70 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,829/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($44k/yr) (locally 1296% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 317 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 31y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $125k implies a 355% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 317 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.19%
• DSCR: 2.03
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $81,850
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: 52.72%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4605 Q St	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,536 (0%)	6mo	$85,000	$55	90
609 42nd St	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-6%)	8mo	$37,500	$26	78
4401 Prince St	0.18mi	2/1.8	1,440 (-6%)	8mo	$54,000	$38	74
701 Underwood Ct	0.16mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (-6%)	4mo	$85,000	$59	74
4204 Prince St	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,368 (-11%)	1mo	$80,000	$58	72
1012 Coconut Way	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-6%)	11mo	$75,000	$52	67
612 44th St	0.05mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,336 (-13%)	6mo	$95,000	$71	66
4217 Kingman Ln	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,392 (-9%)	13mo	$89,000	$64	55
400 E Roberts Ln #131	0.72mi	2/2.0	1,460 (-5%)	6mo	$84,000	$58	53
400 E Roberts Ln #72	0.72mi	2/2.0	1,432 (-7%)	15mo	$86,000	$60	42
400 E Roberts Ln #56	0.72mi	3/1.8 (+1)	1,440 (-6%)	14mo	$90,000	$63	38
400 E Roberts Ln #30	0.72mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-12%)	10mo	$105,000	$78	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $17,429
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.42×
• Total profit: $49,805
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93301

• Home prices YoY: -9.4%
• Rents YoY: -5.1%
• Active inventory: 70
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,829 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$61 /mo · $728/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
• Net cashflow: $676

Break-even live

Break-even rent $972

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $747	-5% $712	+0% $676	+5% $641	+10% $606
Rent	-10% $532	-5% $604	+0% $676	+5% $749	+10% $821
Rate	-1.0pp $739	-0.5pp $708	base $676	+0.5pp $644	+1.0pp $611

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3700 Q St Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1088	$1,600	$1.47	4d	1	0.46mi
130 El Cerrito Dr Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1767	$2,750	$1.56	45d	1	0.60mi
2520 Loma Linda Dr Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,075	$1.73	11d	1	0.71mi
115 Irene St Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	1620	$1,900	$1.17	4d	1	0.84mi
223 McCord Ave Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1536	$1,795	$1.17	4d	1	0.96mi
114 Flower St Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.5	1771	$2,000	$1.13	4d	1	1.01mi
106 E Warren Ave Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1169	$1,400	$1.20	11d	1	1.05mi
448 S Oildale Dr Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,500	$1.39	4d	1	1.12mi
521 Walnut Ave Bakersfield, CA	1.0	1.0	1170	$750	$0.64	4d	1	1.15mi
222 Harding Ave Unit B Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,750	$1.59	4d	1	1.18mi
525 Jeffrey St Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	1700	$1,700	$1.00	4d	1	1.22mi
3200 El Encanto Ct #1 Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	2116	$2,100	$0.99	4d	1	1.26mi
627 Hood Dr Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	1140	$1,795	$1.57	4d	1	1.36mi
927 University Ave Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	1077	$2,300	$2.14	4d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 317 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 316 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 315 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 314 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 312 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,000 Active 309 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 308 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 307 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $125,000 Active 306 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $125,000 Active 303 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 302 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 301 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 300 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 299 DOM
15. 2025-12-17
    price $125,000 1015-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1015 chars)

    RARE corner lot with garage door! This home has it all. Perfectly situated on a premier corner lot right next to the mail boxes and across the street from the golf course. Not many mobile homes can say they have an enclosed driveway (garage) with separate double shed for maximum storage. The kitchen was completely renovated and updated in 2023 with a custom coffee bar next to the pantry. This home has a large covered porch area with lovely rose bushes, plants, and faux grass at the rear of the yard. Completely fenced in for privacy and security. Less than a year old hardwood floors in the living area. Bedrooms have carpet. Mirror closet doors in secondary bedroom. Laundry is inside the home and laundry area can also serve as an office area. Separate formal living area and dining room, with family room (den) off kitchen. Master bedroom has private bathroom with Roman tub and stand up shower, and dual sinks. Second bedroom has ensuite bathroom that also connects to laundry room and has walk-in shower.

16. 2025-08-05
    listed $150,000 Active 1015-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1015 chars)

    RARE corner lot with garage door! This home has it all. Perfectly situated on a premier corner lot right next to the mail boxes and across the street from the golf course. Not many mobile homes can say they have an enclosed driveway (garage) with separate double shed for maximum storage. The kitchen was completely renovated and updated in 2023 with a custom coffee bar next to the pantry. This home has a large covered porch area with lovely rose bushes, plants, and faux grass at the rear of the yard. Completely fenced in for privacy and security. Less than a year old hardwood floors in the living area. Bedrooms have carpet. Mirror closet doors in secondary bedroom. Laundry is inside the home and laundry area can also serve as an office area. Separate formal living area and dining room, with family room (den) off kitchen. Master bedroom has private bathroom with Roman tub and stand up shower, and dual sinks. Second bedroom has ensuite bathroom that also connects to laundry room and has walk-in shower.

17. 2020-04-21
    historical
18. 2020-04-15
    listed $79,999 Active
19. 1999-10-15
    soldstatus $27,500
20. 1999-10-05
    price $29,900
21. 1999-10-05
    historical
22. 1999-05-27
    listed $27,500
23. 1996-03-19
    soldstatus $32,200
24. 1996-02-09
    price $35,500
25. 1996-02-09
    historical
26. 1995-10-22
    listed $32,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $728 · $61/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $950 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: +$222/yr (+$18/mo · 30.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 39 unhealthy d/yr today · 45 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,943
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$728
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,755
• − Management: −$1,755
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $6,441
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,546
• After-tax cash flow: $6,570/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kern High
• NCES district ID: 0619540
• Math proficiency: 21% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,686
• Composite: 33.68/100
• National rank: #10443
• State rank: #860 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Bakersfield

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #716
• US rank: #21355

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bakersfield, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• City population: 499,124
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 13,620
• Household income: $43,561
• Rent vs Own: 63.5% rent · 36.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1296.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 45% White 41% Two or more races 16% Black 5% Native American 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Scotch-Irish 2% Subsaharan African 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 29% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.38%
• Current HPI: 370.1318
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.12%
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+288.2% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-17 Price Changed $125,000 CRMLS
• 2025-08-05 Listed $150,000 CRMLS
• 2020-04-21 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2020-04-15 Listed $79,999 CRMLS
• 1999-10-15 Sold (MLS) $27,500 GEMLS
• 1999-10-05 Delisted — GEMLS
• 1999-10-05 Price Changed $29,900 GEMLS
• 1999-05-27 Listed $27,500 GEMLS
• 1996-03-19 Sold (MLS) $32,200 GEMLS
• 1996-02-09 Delisted — GEMLS
• 1996-02-09 Price Changed $35,500 GEMLS
• 1995-10-22 Listed $32,200 GEMLS

Property tax history

+12.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $728 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.