Canary Plan · Poinciana, FL 34758

$316,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,603 sqft · SingleFamily · 187 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage $125/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.3/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Canary is truly a remarkable floor plan featuring 1,603 square feet of open-concept living space with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a flex room, 2-car garage, and more! Through the foyer lies a flex space, leading to the kitchen area. Two bedrooms are off the kitchen, while your primary suite lies in the rear of the home off of the great room. Plus, a patio completes the home for true indoor/outdoor living, perfect for entertaining guests and enjoying the warm Florida weather.

Key facts

• Flex room
• Patio
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING SPACE
• FLEX ROOM
• PATIO
• INDOOR OUTDOOR LIVING

🏗️ New construction. The $316,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $350,324.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $317k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-778 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $238k (25.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $224k (29.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $224k (29.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#859 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Osceola (suburban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #60 of 73 in FL (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Koa Elementary School (math 30% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,744 of 2,144 statewide, top 82%, 667 students, 63% FRL); Discovery Intermediate School (math 25% / reading 30%, grade F, #495 of 571 statewide, top 87%, 898 students, 62% FRL); Liberty High School (math 15% / reading 25%, grade F, #554 of 667 statewide, top 84%, 1,613 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 42% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Osceola average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 953 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 8,813 units permitted in Osceola County in 2024 (3,072 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Osceola County population projected at +73% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 187 days — a 12% lower offer ($279k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $223,764 (29.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 187 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.52%
• DSCR: 0.58
• GRM: 13.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $350,324
• List price: $316,999
• Delta: -9.51%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5446 Crown Point Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,603 (0%)	1mo	$322,000	$201	99
5484 Isla Saona Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,813 (+13%)	0mo	$335,000	$185	73
5461 Isla Saona Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,813 (+13%)	2mo	$335,000	$185	72
5662 Portico Pl	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,487 (-7%)	8mo	$339,890	$229	69
373 Vestrella Dr	0.42mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,658 (+3%)	2mo	$345,000	$208	68
4779 Yellow Elder Way	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-6%)	11mo	$332,000	$221	62
5726 Gingham Dr	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,790 (+12%)	10mo	$380,000	$212	61
5651 Portico Pl	0.29mi	3/2.5	1,790 (+12%)	6mo	$380,000	$212	60
5800 Portico Pl	0.32mi	3/2.5	1,790 (+12%)	5mo	$378,809	$212	59
5795 Portico Pl	0.35mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,792 (+12%)	2mo	$325,000	$181	55
5410 Crown Point Rd	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,453 (-9%)	3mo	$305,719	$210	54
5668 Portico Pl	0.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,824 (+14%)	8mo	$344,550	$189	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -35.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-111,030
• Equity at exit: $52,234

10-year hold

• IRR: -66.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.82×
• Total profit: $-178,930
• Equity at exit: $30,290

Cash invested: $98,091 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 56 active · 41 under contract
• Months of supply: 9.6 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $329,250 ($191/sqft)
• Median days on market: 113 d
• This list price: 21% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +14.7% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34758

• Home prices YoY: -14.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 953
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,238 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,837
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$438 /mo · $5,255/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$125
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$470
• Net cashflow: $-778

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,223

Max offer price $237,706

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-536	-5% $-657	+0% $-778	+5% $-899	+10% $-1,020
Rent	-10% $-955	-5% $-867	+0% $-778	+5% $-690	+10% $-602
Rate	-1.0pp $-602	-0.5pp $-689	base $-778	+0.5pp $-869	+1.0pp $-961

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,581
• Closing costs: $10,510
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5063 Loggia Ln Unit A Poinciana, FL	3.0	2.0	1825	$2,200	$1.21	10d	1	0.02mi
5075 Loggia Ln Unit A Poinciana, FL	3.0	2.0	1825	$2,200	$1.21	101d	1	0.02mi
5075 Loggia Ln Unit A Poinciana, FL	3.0	2.0	1825	$2,200	$1.21	85d	1	0.02mi
5640 Nispero Way Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1603	$2,190	$1.37	164d	1	0.04mi
5652 Nispero Way Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.5	1853	$2,390	$1.29	164d	1	0.04mi
5652 Nispero Way Unit Labs Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.5	1853	$2,150	$1.16	3d	1	0.04mi
5652 Nispero Way Unit Labs Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.5	1853	$2,200	$1.19	24d	1	0.04mi
5625 Le Marin Way Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	2000	$2,200	$1.10	10d	1	0.07mi
5625 Le Marin Way Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	2000	$2,400	$1.20	145d	1	0.07mi
5625 Le Marin Way Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1560	$2,200	$1.41	31d	1	0.07mi
5647 Nispero Way Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1455	$2,090	$1.44	32d	1	0.08mi
5647 Nispero Way Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1455	$2,090	$1.44	19d	1	0.08mi
5647 Nispero Way Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1455	$2,100	$1.44	10d	1	0.08mi
5647 Nispero Way Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1455	$2,100	$1.44	18d	1	0.08mi
5682 Nispero Way Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.5	1853	$1,950	$1.05	10d	1	0.08mi
5637 Le Marin Way Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	2109	$2,450	$1.16	10d	1	0.08mi
5665 Nispero Way Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.5	1856	$2,350	$1.27	164d	1	0.09mi
5671 Nispero Way Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1608	$2,350	$1.46	127d	1	0.09mi
5456 Le Marin Way Poinciana, FL	4.0	2.0	1845	$2,000	$1.08	164d	1	0.09mi
5695 Le Marin Way Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	2106	$2,300	$1.09	3d	1	0.13mi
5786 Gingham Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	2109	$2,550	$1.21	10d	1	0.14mi
5781 Gingham Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1936	$2,390	$1.23	164d	1	0.14mi
5750 Gingham Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1940	$2,350	$1.21	164d	1	0.19mi
4763 Guinep Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1879	$2,300	$1.22	120d	1	0.20mi
2008 Viewfinder St Poinciana, FL	2.0	3.0	1187	$1,800	$1.52	10d	1	0.21mi
2081 Viewfinder St Poinciana, FL	2.0	2.5	1180	$1,700	$1.44	55d	1	0.21mi
2432 Skyline Loop Poinciana, FL	3.0	2.5	1738	$1,950	$1.12	10d	1	0.21mi
2032 Viewfinder St Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	1275	$1,900	$1.49	164d	1	0.22mi
4799 Guinep Ln Unit 4799 Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1455	$2,200	$1.51	148d	1	0.22mi
4799 Guinep Ln Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1455	$2,200	$1.51	155d	1	0.22mi
3244 Skyline Loop Poinciana, FL	2.0	2.5	1275	$1,650	$1.29	10d	1	0.22mi
3244 Skyline Loop Unit 3244 Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	1275	$1,700	$1.33	10d	1	0.22mi
2452 Skyline Loop Poinciana, FL	3.0	2.5	1688	$1,775	$1.05	25d	1	0.23mi
2452 Skyline Loop Poinciana, FL	3.0	2.5	1688	$1,775	$1.05	10d	1	0.23mi
2452 Skyline Loop Poinciana, FL	3.0	3.0	1840	$1,900	$1.03	55d	1	0.23mi
5750 Le Marin Way Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1603	$2,450	$1.53	10d	1	0.23mi
2456 Skyline Loop Poinciana, FL	3.0	2.5	1689	$2,000	$1.18	31d	1	0.23mi
2456 Skyline Loop Poinciana, FL	3.0	2.5	1689	$2,000	$1.18	10d	1	0.23mi
2080 Viewfinder St Poinciana, FL	2.0	2.5	1255	$1,750	$1.39	10d	1	0.24mi
3208 Skyline Loop Poinciana, FL	2.0	2.5	1255	$1,500	$1.20	10d	1	0.24mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $316,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family plan (Canary)Listing status: Active
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,603

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms (full)
• Interior features: Plan: Canary (new construction)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $316,999 Active 187 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $316,999 Active 186 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $316,999 Active 185 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $316,999 Active 184 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $316,999 Active 183 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $316,999 Active 181 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $316,999 Active 180 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $316,999 Active 179 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $316,999 Active 178 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $316,999 Active 177 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $316,999 Active 176 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $316,999 Active 175 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $316,999 Active 174 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $316,999 Active 173 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $316,999 Active 172 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $316,999 Active 171 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $316,999 Active 170 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $316,999 Active 169 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $316,999 Active 168 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $316,999 Active 167 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $316,999 Active 166 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $316,999 Active 165 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $316,999 Active 164 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $316,999 Active 163 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $316,999 Active 162 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $316,999 Active 161 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $316,999 Active 160 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $316,999 Active 159 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $316,999 Active 158 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $316,999 Active 157 DOM
31. 2026-10-09
    days on market $316,999 Active 156 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $316,999 Active 155 DOM
33. 2026-10-07
    days on market $316,999 Active 154 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $316,999 Active 153 DOM
35. 2026-10-05
    days on market $316,999 Active 152 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $316,999 Active 151 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $316,999 Active 150 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $316,999 Active 149 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $316,999 Active 148 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $316,999 Active 147 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $316,999 Active 146 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $316,999 Active 145 DOM
43. 2026-09-25
    days on market $316,999 Active 143 DOM
44. 2026-09-24
    days on market $316,999 Active 142 DOM
45. 2026-09-23
    days on market $316,999 Active 141 DOM
46. 2026-09-22
    days on market $316,999 Active 140 DOM
47. 2026-09-21
    days on market $316,999 Active 139 DOM
48. 2026-09-20
    days on market $316,999 Active 138 DOM
49. 2026-09-19
    days on market $316,999 Active 137 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $316,999 Active 136 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,852
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,624
• − Property taxes: −$5,255
• − Insurance: −$1,752
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,148
• − Management: −$2,148
• − HOA: −$1,500
• − Depreciation: −$10,191
• Taxable loss: −$15,766
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,784
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,555/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in good condition with no visible repairs needed. It's move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint to enhance curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and can add value. ↑
• Rental Inspect and clean gutters — Clean gutters improve drainage and reduce maintenance costs for tenants. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 27/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Koa Elementary School F FL #1,744/2,144 Nat'l #24,299/41,679 Middle Discovery Intermediate School F FL #495/571 Nat'l #9,659/14,009 High Liberty High School F FL #554/667 Nat'l #14,027/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Osceola
• NCES district ID: 1201470
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $45,528
• Composite: 35.7/100
• National rank: #4865
• State rank: #60 of 73 in FL

D Composite livability gradescore 57/100

Livability — Poinciana

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #859
• US rank: #21760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Poinciana, FL
• County: Osceola County · 447,624 people
• City population: 91,336
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 46,768
• Household income: $66,339
• Rent vs Own: 23.7% rent · 76.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 28% of renters

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Population outlook (Osceola County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,624 people
• By 2030: 511,823 · +14.3%
• By 2040: 642,986 · +43.6%
• By 2050: 774,552 · +73.0%
• By 2075: 1,078,144 · +140.9%
• By 2100: 1,269,660 · +183.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 60% Black 22% Two or more races 16% White 13% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 36% Cuban 3% Dominican 7%
• Languages at home: 42% English-only · Spanish 48% French/Haitian/Cajun 7% Arabic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Osceola

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 19.7pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+13.8 2016: D+25.0 2012: D+24.5 2008: D+19.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.53%
• Current HPI: 295.8928
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.82%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $316,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family plan (Canary)Listing status: Active
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,603

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms (full)
• Interior features: Plan: Canary (new construction)