9902 S Thomas Dr #1832 · Panama City Beach, FL 32408

$240,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,262 sqft · Condo public records · 5 Days on market

Built 2007

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Entered for comp purposes *

Key facts

• Lakeside boardwalk
• Covered parking
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• LARGE PRIVATE BALCONY
• UPDATED KITCHEN APPLIANCES
• MULTIPLE RESORT-STYLE POOLS
• LAKESIDE BOARDWALK
• COVERED PARKING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: All units furnished (multi-unit information)
• HOA & community: Has homeowners association; HOA amenities include game room and gated community access; Community features include elevator, fitness center, game room, pool, shopping, and short-term rentals allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Gated parking; 2-car garage
• Security: On-site security services; Security gate; 24-hour security; Security guard
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Resort zoning; Entry level 18
• Exterior features: Building security; Security gate; 24-hour security; Security guard; Security service; Community pool; Pool (community); Gated community

Interior

• Bedrooms: Bedroom (First level) — 12 x 11; Bedroom (First level) — 14 x 12
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Has a view

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-361 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $240k).
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 2.6% in Panama City Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#172 in FL, #2,624 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Breakfast Point Academy (math 62% / reading 57%, grade B-, #690 of 2,144 statewide, top 34%, 1,058 students, 47% FRL); J.R. Arnold High School (math 41% / reading 54%, grade D, #204 of 667 statewide, top 31%, 1,617 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 1032 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 8 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 32% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $240,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
9. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
10. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 4.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.26%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-62,549
• Equity at exit: $35,785

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.29×
• Total profit: $-86,748
• Equity at exit: $20,751

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32408

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 1032
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,904 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax from tax record: −$302 /mo · $3,625/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA est. from 3 same-building comps: −$928
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$610
• Net cashflow: $-361

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,361

Max offer price $176,188

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-225	-5% $-293	+0% $-361	+5% $-429	+10% $-497
Rent	-10% $-591	-5% $-476	+0% $-361	+5% $-247	+10% $-132
Rate	-1.0pp $-240	-0.5pp $-300	base $-361	+0.5pp $-423	+1.0pp $-487

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9902 S Thomas Dr Unit 1354966P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1259	$1,970	$1.56	15d	1	0.02mi
9815 S Thomas Dr Unit 1523339P Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1259	$4,018	$3.19	23d	1	0.10mi
104 Gulfside Ct Unit 1523320P Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	3.0	1496	$5,020	$3.36	15d	1	0.15mi
998 Gulfside Ct Unit 1523366P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1065	$4,124	$3.87	15d	1	0.15mi
10625 Front Beach Rd Unit 1354975P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1140	$3,166	$2.78	15d	1	0.48mi
204 Potters Bluff Dr Panama City Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1035	$1,947	$1.88	15d	12	0.56mi
10811 Front Beach Rd Unit 1354928P Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1194	$3,463	$2.90	15d	1	0.64mi
135 Grande Island Blvd Unit 1355007P Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	3.5	1797	$2,759	$1.54	23d	1	0.67mi
133 W Leslie Ln Unit 1 Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	1.5	950	$2,200	$2.32	23d	1	0.77mi
136 Bonnie Ln Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	1.5	972	$1,750	$1.80	15d	1	0.91mi
138 Bonnie Ln Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	1.5	972	$1,599	$1.65	15d	1	0.91mi
2858 Joan Ave Unit 1523343P Panama City, FL	4.0	3.0	1754	$5,270	$3.00	15d	1	0.97mi
8715 Surf Dr Unit 1523323P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1194	$5,377	$4.50	15d	1	1.01mi
2521 Allison Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	980	$1,450	$1.48	23d	1	1.03mi
98 Paddock Club Dr Panama City Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1093	$2,063	$1.89	15d	19	1.09mi
2917 Allison Ave Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1592	$1,700	$1.07	23d	1	1.10mi
2301 Anne Ave Unit 8901 Laird Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,625	$1.81	15d	1	1.13mi
2216 Anne Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	951	$1,300	$1.37	15d	1	1.16mi
520 N Richard Jackson Blvd #1912 Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,375	$1.98	15d	1	1.21mi
11222 Hutchison Blvd Unit 1523347P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1194	$3,907	$3.27	23d	1	1.27mi
2526 Laurie Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$1,750	$1.84	15d	1	1.28mi
104 White Cap Way Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1146	$2,700	$2.36	23d	1	1.30mi
10400 Panama City Beach Pkwy Panama City Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1151	$2,372	$2.06	15d	20	1.33mi
175 White Cap Way Unit 1 Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1432	$1,750	$1.22	15d	1	1.35mi
1609 Vecuna Cir Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1268	$2,100	$1.66	15d	1	1.38mi
8700 Front Beach Rd Panama City Beach, FL	2.0–3.0	2.5	1543	$2,400	$1.56	15d	2	1.41mi
8604 Whelch Dr Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1087	$2,950	$2.71	15d	18	1.42mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $240,000 Pending 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-05
   days on market $240,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $240,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   remarks 699-char remark
5. 2026-06-02
   listed $240,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,625 · $302/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,625 · $302/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 77% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,844
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$3,625
• − Insurance: −$1,997
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,788
• − Management: −$2,788
• − HOA: −$11,136
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$7,915
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,900
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,435/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Panama City Beach

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #172
• US rank: #2624

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Panama City Beach, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 18,326
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,832
• Household income: $80,822
• Rent vs Own: 37.0% rent · 63.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 817.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -202.52%
• Current HPI: 246.9126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.55%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-99.6% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $240,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-02-20 Sold (Public Records) $220,000 Public Records
• 2026-02-20 Sold (MLS) $220,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-02-20 Sold (MLS) $220,000 ECAR
• 2026-02-11 Pending — CPARMLS
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $249,900 CPARMLS
• 2025-11-19 Listed $279,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-11-19 Listed $279,000 ECAR
• 2024-04-01 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2023-10-04 Listed $390,000 CPARMLS
• 2023-08-31 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2023-02-17 Listed $399,000 CPARMLS
• 2016-10-05 Sold (Public Records) $197,200 Public Records
• 2016-09-30 Sold (MLS) $197,199 NAMLS
• 2016-09-30 Sold (MLS) $197,199 ECAR
• 2016-09-30 Sold (MLS) $197,199 CPARMLS
• 2016-09-01 Listed $197,199 CPARMLS
• 2016-08-01 Listed $197,199 NAMLS
• 2016-08-01 Listed $197,199 ECAR
• 2015-02-06 Sold (Public Records) $57,690,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,625 · -4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.