901 SE 4th · Knox City, TX 79529

$55,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 95 Days on market

Built 1950 10,500 sqft lot $45/sqft · 11% below area Est $62k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.5/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.4/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1950

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $516 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $50k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#898 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D, amenities F.
• Knox City-O'Brien CISD (rural): math 45% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #825 of 1,141 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($380 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (6.7% local appreciation)).
• Knox County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (6.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($50k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $50,050 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.18%
• DSCR: 2.79
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $61,851
• List price: $55,000
• Delta: -11.08%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
907 SE 2nd St	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,260 (+2%)	18mo	$52,000	$41	71
1100 SE 4th St	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,284 (+4%)	21mo	$55,000	$43	65
907 SE 4th St	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,096 (-11%)	22mo	$60,000	$55	58
300 NE 2nd St	0.51mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,146 (-7%)	6mo	$84,900	$74	54
310 NE Third St	0.53mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,100 (-11%)	8mo	$60,000	$55	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.72% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 50.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.32×
• Total profit: $51,151
• Equity at exit: $37,115

10-year hold

• IRR: 47.2%
• Equity multiple: 9.07×
• Total profit: $124,296
• Equity at exit: $69,616

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79529

• Home prices YoY: 8.6%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,179 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$104 /mo · $1,250/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$248
• Net cashflow: $516

Break-even live

Break-even rent $526

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 51%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $547	-5% $531	+0% $516	+5% $500	+10% $485
Rent	-10% $423	-5% $469	+0% $516	+5% $562	+10% $609
Rate	-1.0pp $543	-0.5pp $530	base $516	+0.5pp $501	+1.0pp $487

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $55,000 Active 95 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $55,000 Active 93 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $55,000 Active 92 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $55,000 Active 91 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $55,000 Active 90 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $55,000 Active 88 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $55,000 Active 87 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $55,000 Active 84 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $55,000 Active 83 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $55,000 Active 82 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $55,000 Active 80 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $55,000 Active 78 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $55,000 Active 77 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $55,000 Active 76 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $55,000 Active 75 DOM
16. 2026-03-17
    listed $55,000 Active
17. 2024-02-01
    soldstatus Closed
18. 2023-11-29
    listed $30,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,250 · $104/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,250 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,145
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$1,250
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,132
• − Management: −$1,132
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $5,676
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,362
• After-tax cash flow: $4,826/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Knox City-O'Brien CISD
• NCES district ID: 4825870
• Math proficiency: 45% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $39,735
• Composite: 34.0/100
• National rank: #10322
• State rank: #825 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Knox City

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #898
• US rank: #16138

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Knox City, TX
• Population (ZIP): 1,052

Population outlook (Knox County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,136 people
• By 2030: 4,291 · +3.7%
• By 2040: 4,655 · +12.5%
• By 2050: 5,005 · +21.0%
• By 2075: 6,051 · +46.3%
• By 2100: 6,427 · +55.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 7% Black 6% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 4% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Knox

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.5) · D 15.6% · R 84.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.2pp toward R · 2008: -45.2pp · 2024: -68.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.5 2020: R+62.8 2016: R+61.2 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+45.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.72%
• Current HPI: 85.2787
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+83.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Listed $55,000 NTREIS
• 2024-02-01 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2023-11-29 Listed $30,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+7.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,250 · +23.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.