615 James Farm Rd · Oronoque, CT 06614

$499,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,310 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1961 1.15 ac lot Est $663k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Tucked away on a private 1.15-acre lot, this charming 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath Colonial offers the perfect blend of space, comfort, and versatility. Surrounded by nature, the property provides a peaceful retreat while still offering a functional layout ideal for today's lifestyle. Inside, you'll find a warm and inviting floor plan with generously sized living areas, the eat-in-kitchen has easy access to the 2-car garage which has a walk-up attic that offers abundant storage space with exciting potential-easily finished to create a private home office, studio, or flex space tailored to your needs. With its convenient access, this area presents a fantastic opportunity to expand your living space w

Key facts

• Private lot
• Expansive yard
• Functional layout

Tags

• PRIVATE LOT
• EXPANSIVE YARD
• WALK-UP ATTIC
• SECLUDED HOME
• EXTERIOR STORAGE AREA
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 cars); Paved parking; 4 total parking spaces
• Security: Security system
• Utilities: Private well for water; Septic sewage system; Natural gas for heat and hot water
• Home design: Single family home
• Construction: Frame construction; Concrete foundation
• Exterior features: Secluded, lightly wooded, sloping lot; Wood siding; Asphalt shingle roof; Red exterior color

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Wall oven; Microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air with ceiling fans; Hot air heating fueled by natural gas; 40-gallon natural gas hot water tank
• Interior features: Security system; One fireplace; Total of 9 rooms; Has an attic with walk-up access; Full basement with interior access, partially finished, walk-out and livable space
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry located on lower level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $500k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $782 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $500k).
• Recommended offer: $492k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 3.0% in Oronoque — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Stratford School District (urban): math 22% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #122 of 153 in CT (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 142 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 852 units permitted in Greater Bridgeport Planning Region in 2024 (698 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($492k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 41% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $492,401 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.70%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $662,970
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
120 Peters Ln	0.04mi	3/1.5 (-1)	2,445 (+6%)	11mo	$548,000	$224	70
25 Harvest Ridge Rd	0.26mi	4/2.5	2,600 (+13%)	5mo	$805,000	$310	63
50 Summersweet Pl	0.57mi	4/2.5	2,118 (-8%)	1mo	$695,000	$328	59
55 Harvest Ridge Rd	0.26mi	4/2.5	1,980 (-14%)	6mo	$595,000	$301	59
465 James Farm Rd	0.14mi	4/1.5	2,034 (-12%)	16mo	$390,000	$192	57
1425 James Farm Rd	0.74mi	4/2.5	2,190 (-5%)	3mo	$460,000	$210	55
170 Pumpkin Ground Rd	0.70mi	3/1.5 (-1)	2,340 (+1%)	3mo	$569,900	$244	54
1725 Cutspring Rd	0.68mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,250 (-3%)	10mo	$575,000	$256	51
360 Nutmeg Ln #360	0.42mi	4/2.5	2,649 (+15%)	6mo	$790,000	$298	50
575 Peters Ln	0.36mi	4/3.0	2,608 (+13%)	14mo	$765,000	$293	48
160 Cheshire St	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,025 (-12%)	6mo	$450,000	$222	37
290 Pumpkin Ground Rd	0.73mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,036 (-12%)	5mo	$585,000	$287	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-31,070
• Equity at exit: $74,537

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $37,660
• Equity at exit: $43,222

Cash invested: $139,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06614

• Active inventory: 142
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,622
• Tax from tax record: −$734 /mo · $8,802/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,155
• Net cashflow: $782

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,511

Max offer price $499,900

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,065	-5% $923	+0% $782	+5% $640	+10% $499
Rent	-10% $347	-5% $564	+0% $782	+5% $999	+10% $1,216
Rate	-1.0pp $1,033	-0.5pp $909	base $782	+0.5pp $652	+1.0pp $520

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $124,975
• Closing costs: $14,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
310 Nutmeg Ln #310 Stratford, CT	4.0	3.5	2562	$5,500	$2.15	24d	1	0.41mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-17
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-04-29
   historical Under Contract - Continue to Show
3. 2026-04-24
   listed $499,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,802 · $734/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,750 · $812/mo
• Expected delta: +$948/yr (+$79/mo · 10.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 41% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $66,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,002
• − Property taxes: −$8,802
• − Insurance: −$2,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,280
• − Management: −$5,280
• − Depreciation: −$14,543
• Taxable income: $1,594
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$383
• After-tax cash flow: $8,998/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stratford School District
• NCES district ID: 0904440
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $67,912
• Composite: 27.85/100
• National rank: #6877
• State rank: #122 of 153 in CT

Livability — Oronoque

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oronoque, CT
• Population (ZIP): 35,538

Population outlook (Greater Bridgeport County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 365,581

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 7% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Greater Bridgeport

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.3) · D 60.9% · R 37.6% · Other 1.5%
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -343.74%
• Current HPI: 206.0128
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Pending — Smart MLS
• 2026-04-29 Contingent — Smart MLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $499,900 Smart MLS

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2023): $8,802 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.