409 Oak Dr · Marlborough, PA 18054

$138,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured public records · 50 Days on market

Built 2024 $164/sqft · 136% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.4/10.0
• Appreciation +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Water, Sewer & Trash Pick Up Included In $300 Monthly Lot Rent. 1974 Bendix By West Brook. 14' X 65'. Newer Tilt-In Windows.

Key facts

• Custom kitchen
• Energy star windows
• Parking

Tags

• ENERGY STAR WINDOWS
• CUSTOM KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Income/expense note: Annual ground rent
• Financial info: Ground rent paid annually; Lease not considered
• HOA & community: Land lease payment approximately $941 monthly

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking (1 space); Total of 1 garage/parking space
• Utilities: Public water; Private sewer; No municipal trash service
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide, approx. 15' x 65'); Land lease / ground rent arrangement; Building not winterized
• Construction: Modular/manufactured construction; Other above-grade structures present; Estimated year built
• Exterior features: Ground rent exists (paid annually); Irrigation water rights

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Gas range/oven
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (forced air); Propane heating (leased); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Excellent condition; Property manager present; Accessible features (other); No basement; Construction completed
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookup; Electric hot water

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $138k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $620 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $138k).
• Recommended offer: $134k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Upper Perkiomen SD (suburban): math 39% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #189 of 539 in PA (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; 1,936 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (530 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($954 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (5.3% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (5.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($134k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 31y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $15k; list at $138k implies a 820% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $133,860 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.25%
• DSCR: 1.86
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $69,665
• List price: $138,000
• Delta: 98.09%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

5.3% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.91×
• Total profit: $73,641
• Equity at exit: $80,688

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.85×
• Total profit: $187,524
• Equity at exit: $141,355

Cash invested: $38,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18054

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 24
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,992 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$724
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$172 /mo · $2,070/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $620

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,207

Max offer price $138,000

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,500
• Closing costs: $4,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $138,000 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $138,000 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $138,000 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $138,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $138,000 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $138,000 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $138,000 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $138,000 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $138,000 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $138,000 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $138,000 Active 36 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $138,000 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $138,000 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $138,000 Active 33 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $138,000 Active 32 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $138,000 Active 31 DOM
17. 2026-04-29
    listed $138,000 Active 493-char remark
18. 1998-07-31
    soldstatus $15,000 130-char remark

    Show marketing remark (130 chars)

    Water, Sewer & Trash Pick Up Included In $300 Monthly Lot Rent. 1974 Bendix By West Brook. 14' X 65'. Newer Tilt-In Windows.

19. 1998-07-06
    historical 130-char remark

    Show marketing remark (130 chars)

    Water, Sewer & Trash Pick Up Included In $300 Monthly Lot Rent. 1974 Bendix By West Brook. 14' X 65'. Newer Tilt-In Windows.

20. 1998-06-09
    listed $15,000 130-char remark

    Show marketing remark (130 chars)

    Water, Sewer & Trash Pick Up Included In $300 Monthly Lot Rent. 1974 Bendix By West Brook. 14' X 65'. Newer Tilt-In Windows.

21. 1995-12-01
    soldstatus $17,000

    Show marketing remark (157 chars)

    1Stlr, Dining Area, Kit. Laundry, 3 Brms. Hall Bath 3Rd Bsmt: Incld. In Sale-Refrig, W/ D, Mini Blind 1Ac Lot Rent Is $290.00.Assignable Leasehold

22. 1995-11-14
    historical
23. 1995-07-20
    listed $17,000

    Show marketing remark (157 chars)

    1Stlr, Dining Area, Kit. Laundry, 3 Brms. Hall Bath 3Rd Bsmt: Incld. In Sale-Refrig, W/ D, Mini Blind 1Ac Lot Rent Is $290.00.Assignable Leasehold

24. 1995-07-18
    listed $19,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 21% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,899
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,730
• − Property taxes: −$2,070
• − Insurance: −$690
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,912
• − Management: −$1,912
• − Depreciation: −$4,015
• Taxable income: $5,571
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,337
• After-tax cash flow: $6,099/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Upper Perkiomen SD
• NCES district ID: 4224540
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $68,322
• Composite: 41.99/100
• National rank: #3337
• State rank: #189 of 539 in PA

Livability — Marlborough

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,714

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 856,074 people
• By 2030: 870,887 · +1.7%
• By 2040: 891,195 · +4.1%
• By 2050: 896,417 · +4.7%
• By 2075: 903,212 · +5.5%
• By 2100: 843,240 · -1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Arabic 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.8) · D 60.9% · R 38.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.0pp toward D · 2008: 20.8pp · 2024: 22.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.8 2020: D+26.3 2016: D+21.1 2012: D+14.3 2008: D+20.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.30%
• Current HPI: 289.0447
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+593.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Listed $138,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1998-07-31 Sold (MLS) $15,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1998-07-06 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 1998-06-09 Listed $15,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1995-12-01 Sold (MLS) $17,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1995-11-14 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 1995-07-20 Listed $17,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1995-07-18 Listed $19,900 BRIGHT MLS