955 Aeronca St · Big Creek, MI 48636

$99,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 708 sqft · SingleFamily · 13 Days on market

Built 2010 0.98 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.9/30.0
• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cozy 2 Bedroom 1 Full bath cabin nestled on 1 acre of wooded property. This cabin has warm knotty pine finishes throughout and a large spacious living room perfect for entertaining. The home features on demand water heater, metal roof, newer furnace and two large outbuildings that offers plenty of storage for all your toys and equipment. Cabin is conveniently located near town and close to all amenities and ORV trails. This property is a perfect weekend getaway or year-round residence. Additional knotty pine will be left for the new buyer to make those last finishing touches.

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Newer furnace
• Wooded property

Tags

• ON DEMAND WATER HEATER
• METAL ROOF
• NEWER FURNACE
• TWO LARGE OUTBUILDINGS
• WOODED PROPERTY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single‑family residence; One level; Ground-level entry with steps; Metal roof; Wood siding
• Construction: Wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Shed(s); Dirt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Free‑standing refrigerator; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Total of 4 rooms (includes bedrooms and living areas)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (propane); Ceiling fan(s); No central air
• Interior features: Free‑standing refrigerator; Microwave; Crawl space basement; Ceiling fan(s)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $65 ($783/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $83k (16.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $83k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Mio-Ausable Schools (rural): math 31% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #351 of 540 in MI (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 29 units permitted in Oscoda County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (8.6% local appreciation)).
• Oscoda County population projected at -32% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (8.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $100k implies a 82% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,405 (16.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.80%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $55,224
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
955 Aeronca St	0.00mi	2/1.0	708 (0%)	7mo	$55,000	$78	94

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.57% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.75×
• Total profit: $48,948
• Equity at exit: $79,819

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.97×
• Total profit: $139,116
• Equity at exit: $162,336

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48636

• Home prices YoY: 4.7%
• Active inventory: 11
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $834 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $338/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$175
• Net cashflow: $65

Break-even live

Break-even rent $751

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $122	-5% $93	+0% $65	+5% $37	+10% $9
Rent	-10% $-1	-5% $32	+0% $65	+5% $98	+10% $131
Rate	-1.0pp $116	-0.5pp $91	base $65	+0.5pp $39	+1.0pp $13

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $99,900 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,900 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 582-char remark

   Show marketing remark (582 chars)

   Cozy 2 Bedroom 1 Full bath cabin nestled on 1 acre of wooded property. This cabin has warm knotty pine finishes throughout and a large spacious living room perfect for entertaining. The home features on demand water heater, metal roof, newer furnace and two large outbuildings that offers plenty of storage for all your toys and equipment. Cabin is conveniently located near town and close to all amenities and ORV trails. This property is a perfect weekend getaway or year-round residence. Additional knotty pine will be left for the new buyer to make those last finishing touches.

10. 2026-06-07
    listed $99,900 Active 1 DOM

    Show marketing remark (582 chars)

    Cozy 2 Bedroom 1 Full bath cabin nestled on 1 acre of wooded property. This cabin has warm knotty pine finishes throughout and a large spacious living room perfect for entertaining. The home features on demand water heater, metal roof, newer furnace and two large outbuildings that offers plenty of storage for all your toys and equipment. Cabin is conveniently located near town and close to all amenities and ORV trails. This property is a perfect weekend getaway or year-round residence. Additional knotty pine will be left for the new buyer to make those last finishing touches.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $338 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $938 · $78/mo
• Expected delta: +$600/yr (+$50/mo · 177.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,009
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$338
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$801
• − Management: −$801
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable loss: −$932
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$224
• After-tax cash flow: $1,006/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mio-Ausable Schools
• NCES district ID: 2624000
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $34,216
• Composite: 26.35/100
• National rank: #7236
• State rank: #351 of 540 in MI

Livability — Big Creek

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 891

Population outlook (Oscoda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 7,410 people
• By 2030: 6,884 · -7.1%
• By 2040: 5,853 · -21.0%
• By 2050: 5,055 · -31.8%
• By 2075: 3,832 · -48.3%
• By 2100: 2,863 · -61.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Romanian 7% Iranian 6%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Oscoda

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.3) · D 27.2% · R 71.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.3pp toward R · 2008: -10.0pp · 2024: -44.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.3 2020: R+43.6 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+10.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.57%
• Current HPI: 191.1937
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+1148.8% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-07 Listed $99,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-06-07 Listed $99,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-12-09 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2025-11-13 Sold (MLS) $55,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-11-13 Sold (MLS) $55,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-11-06 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-11-06 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $62,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-11-03 Price Changed $62,900 REALCOMP
• 2025-10-22 Price Changed $69,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-10-22 Price Changed $69,900 REALCOMP
• 2025-10-08 Price Changed $74,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-10-07 Price Changed $74,900 REALCOMP
• 2025-09-11 Listed $79,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-09-11 Listed $79,900 REALCOMP
• 2008-05-12 Sold (Public Records) $8,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $338 · -21.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.