5014 Fair Oak Dale Ln · Atascocita, TX 77346

$230,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,048 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 76 Days on market

Built 2011 5,266 sqft lot $112/sqft · 16% below area Est $272k · 16% under $36/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.5/15.0
• Cash flow +10.7/30.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming two-story home with a classic brick exterior, a mature shade tree, and strong curb appeal. Inside, a well-designed layout offers multiple living and dining areas, complemented by natural light and neutral finishes throughout. The kitchen features ample cabinetry, a center island, and an open flow ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Upstairs, spacious bedrooms—including a private primary suite—provide flexibility for families, guests, or a home office. A generous backyard adds outdoor potential, while the convenient location near major roads, shopping, and dining enhances overall livability. This is a well-balanced opportunity that offers both comfort and long-term value.

Key facts

• Brick exterior
• Mature shade tree
• Convenient location

Tags

• BRICK EXTERIOR
• MATURE SHADE TREE
• MULTIPLE LIVING AREAS
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• GENEROUS BACKYARD
• CONVENIENT LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-110 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $211k (8.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $224k (2.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (8.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.0% in Atascocita — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#346 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 681 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $210,633 (8.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.04%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $272,193
• List price: $230,000
• Delta: -15.50%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12223 Zenith Ridge Way	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,049 (0%)	5mo	$255,000	$124	80
4922 Blue Spruce Hill St	0.15mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,915 (-6%)	6mo	$239,000	$125	72
4826 Drew Forest Ln	0.40mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,002 (-2%)	2mo	$268,700	$134	69
4910 Blue Spruce Hl	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,778 (-13%)	0mo	$268,000	$151	63
4854 Fair Oak Dale Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,761 (-14%)	6mo	$230,000	$131	62
12106 Hawthorne Hill Cir	0.54mi	3/2.5	2,133 (+4%)	7mo	$274,900	$129	62
11831 Rainbow Bridge Ln	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,770 (-14%)	3mo	$239,000	$135	59
4826 Gypsy Forest Dr	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,791 (-12%)	1mo	$249,999	$140	57
12302 Beacon Tree Ct	0.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,794 (-12%)	0mo	$250,000	$139	52
4954 Winding Timbers Cir	0.55mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,319 (+13%)	0mo	$277,600	$120	45
18514 Inwood Elm Cir	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,793 (-12%)	7mo	$214,900	$120	37
18202 Tree Moss Ct	0.74mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,338 (+14%)	7mo	$260,000	$111	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.95% appreciation · 0.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-29,995
• Equity at exit: $56,026

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-39,731
• Equity at exit: $59,263

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77346

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 681
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,244 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$544 /mo · $6,531/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$36
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$471
• Net cashflow: $-110

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,383

Max offer price $210,633

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $21	-5% $-45	+0% $-110	+5% $-175	+10% $-240
Rent	-10% $-287	-5% $-198	+0% $-110	+5% $-21	+10% $68
Rate	-1.0pp $6	-0.5pp $-51	base $-110	+0.5pp $-169	+1.0pp $-230

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17834 Yellow Birch Trl Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1532	$1,646	$1.07	44d	1	0.12mi
18123 Noble Forest Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2328	$2,595	$1.11	6d	1	0.32mi
18030 June Forest Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2341	$2,156	$0.92	0d	1	0.35mi
18018 Heron Forest Ln Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1795	$1,939	$1.08	25d	1	0.44mi
12323 Crescent Mountain Ln Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	2358	$2,231	$0.95	0d	1	0.50mi
12214 Landsdown Ridge Way Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2389	$2,165	$0.91	12d	1	0.51mi
4110 Forest Rain Ln Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2845	$2,370	$0.83	25d	1	0.78mi
12643 Jamestown Crossing Ln Humble, TX	4.0	2.0	2450	$4,995	$2.04	25d	1	0.79mi
18103 Yellowstone Trl Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2602	$2,371	$0.91	44d	1	0.91mi
17923 Diamond Peak Ct Humble, TX	4.0	2.0	2171	$2,306	$1.06	0d	1	0.97mi
3818 Oaktrace Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1644	$2,200	$1.34	44d	1	1.03mi
5231 Flax Bourton St Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1513	$1,806	$1.19	0d	1	1.15mi
5303 Hill Timbers Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1884	$2,050	$1.09	44d	1	1.20mi
3623 Village Grove Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1404	$1,709	$1.22	17d	1	1.26mi
16807 Hemlock Grove Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2476	$3,100	$1.25	44d	1	1.29mi
16411 Little Pine Creek Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2646	$2,871	$1.09	0d	1	1.47mi
10534 Fire Sage Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	1460	$1,921	$1.32	13d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $36 · $432/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $230,000 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $230,000 Active 73 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $230,000 Active 72 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $230,000 Active 71 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $230,000 Active 70 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $230,000 Active 68 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $230,000 Active 67 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $230,000 Active 64 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $230,000 Active 63 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $230,000 Active 62 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $230,000 Active 59 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $230,000 Active 58 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $230,000 Active 57 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $230,000 Active 56 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $230,000 Active 55 DOM
16. 2026-04-28
    price $230,000 708-char remark

    Show marketing remark (708 chars)

    Charming two-story home with a classic brick exterior, a mature shade tree, and strong curb appeal. Inside, a well-designed layout offers multiple living and dining areas, complemented by natural light and neutral finishes throughout. The kitchen features ample cabinetry, a center island, and an open flow ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Upstairs, spacious bedrooms—including a private primary suite—provide flexibility for families, guests, or a home office. A generous backyard adds outdoor potential, while the convenient location near major roads, shopping, and dining enhances overall livability. This is a well-balanced opportunity that offers both comfort and long-term value.

17. 2026-04-06
    listed $240,000 Active 708-char remark

    Show marketing remark (708 chars)

    Charming two-story home with a classic brick exterior, a mature shade tree, and strong curb appeal. Inside, a well-designed layout offers multiple living and dining areas, complemented by natural light and neutral finishes throughout. The kitchen features ample cabinetry, a center island, and an open flow ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Upstairs, spacious bedrooms—including a private primary suite—provide flexibility for families, guests, or a home office. A generous backyard adds outdoor potential, while the convenient location near major roads, shopping, and dining enhances overall livability. This is a well-balanced opportunity that offers both comfort and long-term value.

18. 2011-09-30
    soldstatus 105-char remark

    Show marketing remark (105 chars)

    EST COMPLETION AUG 2011.AWESOME BRAND NEW 2-STORY W/GAMEROOM W/HUGE BACKYARD,ISLAND KITCHEN,HUGE MASTER!!

19. 2011-09-20
    historical 105-char remark

    Show marketing remark (105 chars)

    EST COMPLETION AUG 2011.AWESOME BRAND NEW 2-STORY W/GAMEROOM W/HUGE BACKYARD,ISLAND KITCHEN,HUGE MASTER!!

20. 2011-07-07
    listed $107,515 105-char remark

    Show marketing remark (105 chars)

    EST COMPLETION AUG 2011.AWESOME BRAND NEW 2-STORY W/GAMEROOM W/HUGE BACKYARD,ISLAND KITCHEN,HUGE MASTER!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,531 · $544/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,531 · $544/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,926
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$6,531
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,154
• − Management: −$2,154
• − HOA: −$432
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$5,070
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,217
• After-tax cash flow: $-99/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Atascocita

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #7586

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atascocita, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 79,538
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 79,538
• Household income: $122,241
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1072.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 21% Two or more races 18% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Current HPI: 218.0478
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+113.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $230,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Listed $240,000 HARMLS
• 2011-09-30 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2011-09-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2011-07-07 Listed $107,515 HARMLS

Property tax history

+31.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,531 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.