1176 Oak Spring Dr · Burleson, TX 76028

$385,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,047 sqft · Land · 44 Days on market

Built 2025 4,792 sqft lot $189/sqft · at area comps Est $372k · at est. $90/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• ARV discount +5.9/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MLS# 21244807 - Built by Impression Homes - Ready Now! ~ This stunning single-family residence, built in 2025, offers a modern and spacious layout with 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms within 2,047 square feet. Situated in the desirable Mountain Valley subdivision and part of the Joshua ISD, this home is perfect for families seeking quality education with nearby schools including Njoshua Elementary, Tom and Nita Nichols Middle School, and Joshua High School. The traditional design features an open floorplan. The kitchen boasts an island and eat-in area, ideal for gatherings. Enjoy comfort year-round with central heating and cooling. The home includes a cozy living area, a designated dining area, and convenient walk-in closets. Outside, the covered patio provides a relaxing space to unwind. This property is complete and ready for you to make it your own—don’t miss this opportunity!

Key facts

• Joshua isd
• Open floorplan
• Covered patio

Tags

• MOUNTAIN VALLEY SUBDIVISION
• JOSHUA ISD
• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• COVERED PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $386k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-30 ($-358/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $381k (1.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $296k (23.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $296k (23.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.5% in Burleson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#53 in TX, #2,133 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Joshua ISD (rural): math 52% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #139 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 687 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($101k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($374k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $295,688 (23.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.33%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $372,492
• List price: $385,999
• Delta: 3.63%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-68,175
• Equity at exit: $57,554

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-76,741
• Equity at exit: $33,374

Cash invested: $108,080 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76028

• Home prices YoY: -33.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 687
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,957 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,024
• Tax from tax record: −$91 /mo · $1,088/yr
• Insurance: −$161
• HOA: −$90
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$621
• Net cashflow: $-30

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,995

Max offer price $380,732

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $189	-5% $79	+0% $-30	+5% $-139	+10% $-248
Rent	-10% $-263	-5% $-147	+0% $-30	+5% $87	+10% $204
Rate	-1.0pp $165	-0.5pp $68	base $-30	+0.5pp $-130	+1.0pp $-232

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $96,500
• Closing costs: $11,580
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2752 Elmwood Dr Burleson, TX	4.0	2.0	2032	$2,800	$1.38	44d	1	1.28mi
2513 Buffalo Run Burleson, TX	3.0	2.0	1429	$1,920	$1.34	44d	1	1.35mi
2516 Castle Pines Dr Unit 1287532P Burleson, TX	5.0	3.0	2507	$16,227	$6.47	23d	1	1.42mi
2516 Castle Pines Dr Burleson, TX	5.0	3.0	2518	$8,950	$3.55	25d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $90 · $1,080/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-04
   status $385,999 Pending 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $385,999 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $385,999 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $385,999 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $385,999 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-04-20
   listed $385,999 Active 905-char remark

   Show marketing remark (905 chars)

   MLS# 21244807 - Built by Impression Homes - Ready Now! ~ This stunning single-family residence, built in 2025, offers a modern and spacious layout with 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms within 2,047 square feet. Situated in the desirable Mountain Valley subdivision and part of the Joshua ISD, this home is perfect for families seeking quality education with nearby schools including Njoshua Elementary, Tom and Nita Nichols Middle School, and Joshua High School. The traditional design features an open floorplan. The kitchen boasts an island and eat-in area, ideal for gatherings. Enjoy comfort year-round with central heating and cooling. The home includes a cozy living area, a designated dining area, and convenient walk-in closets. Outside, the covered patio provides a relaxing space to unwind. This property is complete and ready for you to make it your own—don’t miss this opportunity!

7. 2026-04-18
   status Active 230-char remark

   Show marketing remark (230 chars)

   Open-concept design that is great for entertaining. This one-story layout offers lots of storage space, including spacious walk-in closets in each bedroom. The large, walk-in pantry is perfect for a family that loves to entertain.

8. 2026-04-18
   price $385,999 230-char remark

   Show marketing remark (230 chars)

   Open-concept design that is great for entertaining. This one-story layout offers lots of storage space, including spacious walk-in closets in each bedroom. The large, walk-in pantry is perfect for a family that loves to entertain.

9. 2025-11-06
   historical 230-char remark

   Show marketing remark (230 chars)

   Open-concept design that is great for entertaining. This one-story layout offers lots of storage space, including spacious walk-in closets in each bedroom. The large, walk-in pantry is perfect for a family that loves to entertain.

10. 2025-10-15
    listed $398,546 Active 230-char remark

    Show marketing remark (230 chars)

    Open-concept design that is great for entertaining. This one-story layout offers lots of storage space, including spacious walk-in closets in each bedroom. The large, walk-in pantry is perfect for a family that loves to entertain.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,088 · $91/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,064 · $589/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,975/yr (+$498/mo · 549.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,483
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,622
• − Property taxes: −$1,088
• − Insurance: −$1,930
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,839
• − Management: −$2,839
• − HOA: −$1,080
• − Depreciation: −$11,229
• Taxable loss: −$7,144
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,715
• After-tax cash flow: $1,357/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Joshua ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824930
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $60,696
• Composite: 44.65/100
• National rank: #2769
• State rank: #139 of 826 in TX

Livability — Burleson

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #53
• US rank: #2133

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Burleson, TX
• County: Johnson County · 147,987 people
• City population: 81,549
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 81,549
• Household income: $101,138
• Rent vs Own: 22.7% rent · 77.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1117.0

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 11% Black 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -141.44%
• Current HPI: 282.466
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.78%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Listed $385,999 NTREIS
• 2026-04-18 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $385,999 Zillow
• 2025-11-06 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-10-15 Listed $398,546 Zillow

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,088 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.