538 Village Blvd N · Village Green, NY 13027

$139,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 793 sqft · Townhouse public records · 44 Days on market

Built 1975 7.53 ac lot Est $130k · 8% over $150/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.8/30.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• ARV discount +4.1/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well maintained condo. Lower level near laundry room. Condo fees cover common area maintenance & taxes, Master insurance, hot & cold water, lawn services, snow plowing, trash removal, all exterior maintenance. Enjoy life and don't be a slave to your home. Grade school with play fields close by, Foxfire Golf Course within walking distance.

Key facts

• Window treatments
• Two parking spaces
• Quiet neighborhood

Tags

• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD
• TWO PARKING SPACES
• WINDOW TREATMENTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $268 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 5.3% in Village Green — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#720 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, crime B; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Baldwinsville Central School District (suburban): math 47% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #355 of 590 in NY (top 60%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Mae E Reynolds School (math 37% / reading 62%, grade D, #1,085 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 503 students, 36% FRL); Donald S Ray School (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #394 of 729 statewide, top 55%, 846 students, 31% FRL); Charles W Baker High School (math 97% / reading 70%, grade A, #435 of 1,100 statewide, top 40%, 1,281 students, 28% FRL).
• Market conditions: 231 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $41k; list at $140k implies a 241% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $135,703 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.22%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $130,052
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
576 Village Blvd N	0.05mi	1/1.0 (-1)	772 (-3%)	6mo	$120,000	$155	83
379 Village Blvd N	0.16mi	2/1.0	832 (+5%)	10mo	$120,000	$144	77
377 Village Blvd N	0.39mi	2/1.0	806 (+2%)	8mo	$155,900	$193	72
464 Idlewood Blvd	0.06mi	1/1.0 (-1)	772 (-3%)	19mo	$87,500	$113	72
355 Village Blvd N	0.37mi	2/1.0	834 (+5%)	6mo	$137,000	$164	69
689 Idlewood Blvd	0.23mi	2/1.0	853 (+8%)	10mo	$150,000	$176	68
449 Idlewood Blvd	0.37mi	2/1.0	832 (+5%)	8mo	$145,000	$174	68
471 Idlewood Blvd	0.05mi	2/1.0	903 (+14%)	8mo	$140,000	$155	68
558 Village Blvd N	0.03mi	2/1.0	903 (+14%)	9mo	$152,000	$168	68
577 Village Blvd N	0.04mi	2/1.0	903 (+14%)	13mo	$145,157	$161	64
684 Idlewood Blvd	0.23mi	2/1.0	853 (+8%)	20mo	$155,000	$182	60
489 Idlewood Blvd	0.06mi	2/1.0	903 (+14%)	21mo	$140,000	$155	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-5,486
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $17,606
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13027

• Active inventory: 231
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,701 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$134 /mo · $1,607/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$150
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $268

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,362

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $348	-5% $308	+0% $268	+5% $229	+10% $189
Rent	-10% $134	-5% $201	+0% $268	+5% $336	+10% $403
Rate	-1.0pp $339	-0.5pp $304	base $268	+0.5pp $232	+1.0pp $195

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
489 Idlewood Blvd #489 Baldwinsville, NY	2.0	1.0	903	$1,550	$1.72	15d	1	0.05mi
555 Village Blvd N Baldwinsville, NY	3.0	1.5	1043	$1,900	$1.82	15d	1	0.07mi
327 Village Blvd N Baldwinsville, NY	2.0	1.0	806	$1,500	$1.86	23d	1	0.39mi
10 Cedarwood Blvd Baldwinsville, NY	3.0	1.0–2.0	725	$1,438	$1.98	15d	1	0.65mi
2814 Cold Springs Rd Baldwinsville, NY	1.0	1.0	950	$1,900	$2.00	23d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $150 · $1,800/yr
• Likely covers: watertrashsnow removalexterior maint.insurance

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-10
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-03-26
   price $139,900
4. 2026-03-07
   listed $149,900 Active
5. 2014-11-09
   listed $52,000
6. 2011-01-27
   historical 352-char remark

   Show marketing remark (352 chars)

   Well maintained condo. Lower level near laundry room. Condo fees cover common area maintenance & taxes, Master insurance, hot & cold water, lawn services, snow plowing, trash removal, all exterior maintenance. Enjoy life and don't be a slave to your home. Grade school with play fields close by, Foxfire Golf Course within walking distance.

7. 2011-01-14
   soldstatus $41,000 352-char remark

   Show marketing remark (352 chars)

   Well maintained condo. Lower level near laundry room. Condo fees cover common area maintenance & taxes, Master insurance, hot & cold water, lawn services, snow plowing, trash removal, all exterior maintenance. Enjoy life and don't be a slave to your home. Grade school with play fields close by, Foxfire Golf Course within walking distance.

8. 2010-10-24
   listed $42,900 352-char remark

   Show marketing remark (352 chars)

   Well maintained condo. Lower level near laundry room. Condo fees cover common area maintenance & taxes, Master insurance, hot & cold water, lawn services, snow plowing, trash removal, all exterior maintenance. Enjoy life and don't be a slave to your home. Grade school with play fields close by, Foxfire Golf Course within walking distance.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,607 · $134/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,986 · $165/mo
• Expected delta: +$379/yr (+$32/mo · 23.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,418
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$1,607
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,633
• − Management: −$1,633
• − HOA: −$1,800
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable income: $1,138
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$273
• After-tax cash flow: $2,947/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwinsville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3603870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $65,182
• Composite: 44.22/100
• National rank: #2848
• State rank: #355 of 590 in NY

Livability — Village Green

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #720
• US rank: #13628

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Village Green, NY
• County: Onondaga County · 247,257 people
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• Population (ZIP): 35,088
• Household income: $91,797
• Rent vs Own: 30.9% rent · 69.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1057.0

Population outlook (Onondaga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 467,894 people
• By 2030: 463,381 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 447,697 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 426,399 · -8.9%
• By 2075: 373,661 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 307,967 · -34.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 5% Subsaharan African 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Onondaga

• 2024 margin: D (+17.3) · D 58.6% · R 41.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: 20.3pp · 2024: 17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.3 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+12.8 2012: D+21.1 2008: D+20.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -204.01%
• Current HPI: 321.8247
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+226.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-04-10 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $139,900 CNYIS
• 2026-03-07 Listed $149,900 CNYIS
• 2014-11-09 Listed $52,000 CNYIS
• 2011-01-27 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2011-01-14 Sold (MLS) $41,000 CNYIS
• 2010-10-24 Listed $42,900 CNYIS

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,607 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.