30830 Thumper Dr · Shingletown, CA 96088

$89,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 82 Days on market

Built 1977 0.70 ac lot Est $132k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

3 bedroom 2 Bath MFH fixer on a permanent foundation in Shasta Forest Village. Large . 70 acre lot with beautiful tall trees & a creek to beat the Redding heat. With a little work this could make a great vacation home or year round home. This property presents a unique opportunity to invest in a conveniently located home & create your vision in a setting with lots of potential

Key facts

• Large lot
• Permanent foundation
• Creek

Tags

• PERMANENT FOUNDATION
• LARGE LOT
• CREEK
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Generator for electric; Septic tank
• Home design: Single family residence; One level
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Level, secluded lot; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Cooktop; Double oven
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Has heating; Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: Free-standing fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $89k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $89k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.6% vs local median 4.7% in Shingletown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#663 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime B+, health & safety B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Shasta Union High (urban): math 41% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #122 of 517 in CA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 122 active listings in the ZIP; 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $615 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,660 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 54.76%
• DSCR: 3.44
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $132,480
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
30763 Thumper Dr	0.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,464 (+2%)	11mo	$134,000	$92	77
30936 Bambi Dr	0.20mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,368 (-5%)	4mo	$75,000	$55	74
30641 Thumper Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,440 (0%)	17mo	$150,000	$104	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 53.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.33×
• Total profit: $57,998
• Equity at exit: $13,270

10-year hold

• IRR: 58.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.77×
• Total profit: $143,753
• Equity at exit: $7,695

Cash invested: $24,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96088

• Active inventory: 122
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,149 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $678/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
• Net cashflow: $1,137

Break-even live

Break-even rent $709

Max offer price $89,000

Occupancy floor 42%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,250
• Closing costs: $2,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $89,000 Active 82 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,000 Active 81 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,000 Active 80 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,000 Active 79 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,000 Active 78 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,000 Active 76 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $89,000 Active 75 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $89,000 Active 73 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,000 Active 72 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $89,000 Active 71 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,000 Active 70 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    price $89,000 Active 66 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,000 Active 66 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,000 Active 65 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 64 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 63 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $99,000 Active 62 DOM
18. 2026-04-23
    price $99,000
19. 2026-03-30
    listed $110,000 Active
20. 2006-11-06
    soldstatus $160,000
21. 2001-01-12
    soldstatus $58,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $678 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $678 · $57/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 26 unhealthy d/yr today · 27 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,784
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,985
• − Property taxes: −$678
• − Insurance: −$445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,063
• − Management: −$2,063
• − Depreciation: −$2,589
• Taxable income: $12,960
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,110
• After-tax cash flow: $10,534/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shasta Union High
• NCES district ID: 0636600
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $50,080
• Composite: 46.01/100
• National rank: #2532
• State rank: #122 of 517 in CA

Livability — Shingletown

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #663
• US rank: #20514

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shingletown, CA
• City population: 4,552
• Population (ZIP): 4,552

Population outlook (Shasta County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,231 people
• By 2030: 176,953 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 169,982 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 162,547 · -9.3%
• By 2075: 145,649 · -18.7%
• By 2100: 123,025 · -31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Serbian 3% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Shasta

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.5) · D 30.5% · R 67.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.8pp · 2024: -36.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.5 2020: R+33.1 2016: R+37.4 2012: R+30.3 2008: R+25.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -127.35%
• Current HPI: 141.2725
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+70.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $99,000 SAOR
• 2026-03-30 Listed $110,000 SAOR
• 2006-11-06 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records
• 2001-01-12 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $678 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.