7227 Colton St · Houston, TX 77016

$214,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,510 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1956 7,260 sqft lot Est $202k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +4.9/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• 7,260 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1956

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $214k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-46 ($-548/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $206k (3.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (15.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $181k (15.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Shadydale El (math 11% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,990 of 4,322 statewide, top 93%, 631 students, 95% FRL); Forest Brook Middle (math 12% / reading 14%, grade F, #1,609 of 1,662 statewide, top 97%, 613 students, 98% FRL); North Forest H S (math 13% / reading 18%, grade F, #1,505 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 974 students, 97% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 15% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 372 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (8.7% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (8.7% appreciation + 0.4% rent growth), your $60k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,825 (15.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.91%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $202,340
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7227 Colton St	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,510 (0%)	0mo	$214,000	$142	91
7203 Gore Dr	0.07mi	3/1.0	1,609 (+7%)	2mo	$159,000	$99	84
7422 Wheatley Gardens Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,416 (-6%)	3mo	$190,000	$134	61
10535 Hollyglen Dr	0.41mi	3/1.0	1,344 (-11%)	4mo	$124,900	$93	60
7726 Spinet St	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-4%)	3mo	$150,000	$103	56
7706 Tully Ave	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+6%)	2mo	$300,000	$188	54
10507 Royal Oaks Dr	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,311 (-13%)	2mo	$215,000	$164	52
7705 Yoe St	0.58mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,388 (-8%)	3mo	$90,000	$65	48
7450 Ida Wells Forest Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,645 (+9%)	2mo	$220,000	$134	47
10618 Wolbrook St	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,662 (+10%)	4mo	$210,000	$126	47
7630 Yoe St	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-14%)	2mo	$239,000	$184	46
7451 Langley Rd	0.49mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,308 (-13%)	4mo	$209,219	$160	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.65% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.50×
• Total profit: $89,690
• Equity at exit: $172,115

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.25×
• Total profit: $254,684
• Equity at exit: $351,163

Cash invested: $59,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77016

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 372
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,808 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,122
• Tax from tax record: −$263 /mo · $3,154/yr
• Insurance: −$89
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $-46

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,866

Max offer price $205,929

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,500
• Closing costs: $6,420
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7325 Boggess Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,850	$1.18	17d	1	0.16mi
7325 Boggess Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,850	$1.18	43d	1	0.16mi
7314 Saunders Rd Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1339	$1,723	$1.29	14d	1	0.18mi
7176 Parker Rd Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1152	$1,200	$1.04	43d	1	0.33mi
10221 Bretton Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1350	$1,700	$1.26	24d	1	0.40mi
7426 Bigwood St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1997	$1,850	$0.93	14d	1	0.49mi
10314 Woodwick St Unit 1283919P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1496	$3,782	$2.53	7d	1	0.63mi
7726 Spinet St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1456	$2,375	$1.63	7d	1	0.64mi
7201 Hallshire Dr Unit 235 Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$850	$0.77	43d	1	0.70mi
10750 Nyla Spring St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,975	$1.32	18d	1	0.71mi
10329 Wicklowe St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,400	$1.11	20d	1	0.72mi
10474 Red Orchid Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1553	$1,875	$1.21	24d	1	0.81mi
9410 Firnat St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	43d	1	0.97mi
10708 Lavender Cotton Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1406	$2,150	$1.53	43d	1	1.02mi
9326 Firnat St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1902	$1,900	$1.00	43d	1	1.02mi
9328 Firnat St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1902	$1,900	$1.00	43d	1	1.02mi
9324 Firnat St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,900	$1.19	22d	1	1.02mi
9320 Firnat St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1900	$1,850	$0.97	7d	1	1.03mi
9314 Sundown Dr Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1608	$1,695	$1.05	15d	1	1.06mi
8003 Alpine Bearberry Dr Houston, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1696	$2,000	$1.18	7d	1	1.09mi
9550 N Wayside Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	896	$1,399	$1.56	1d	5	1.20mi
6823 Hanley Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1303	$1,610	$1.24	5d	1	1.22mi
8102 Rhobell St Unit A Houston, TX	4.0	3.5	1567	$1,750	$1.12	43d	1	1.24mi
8122 Sterlingshire St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1160	$1,525	$1.31	15d	1	1.35mi
8122 Sterlingshire St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1160	$1,450	$1.25	15d	1	1.35mi
9422 Sandra St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1461	$1,875	$1.28	43d	1	1.35mi
8126 Sterlingshire St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,350	$1.17	24d	1	1.36mi
8214 Parker Rd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1608	$1,560	$0.97	7d	1	1.36mi
8213 Bigwood St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1150	$1,595	$1.39	43d	1	1.39mi
11235 Lemond Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1368	$1,450	$1.06	22d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-23
   status Pending
3. 2026-03-23
   historical
4. 2026-03-06
   listed $214,000 Active
5. 2025-12-31
   soldstatus
6. 2023-11-10
   soldstatus
7. 1988-01-02
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,154 · $263/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,916 · $326/mo
• Expected delta: +$763/yr (+$64/mo · 24.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,699
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,987
• − Property taxes: −$3,154
• − Insurance: −$1,070
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,736
• − Management: −$1,736
• − Depreciation: −$6,225
• Taxable loss: −$4,209
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,010
• After-tax cash flow: $462/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,841
• Household income: $47,677
• Rent vs Own: 38.8% rent · 61.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1297.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (56%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 28%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 37%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.65%
• Current HPI: 315.6765
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-06 Listed $214,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-11-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,154 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.