86 Kingston Pl · Buffalo, NY 14210

$179,900

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,474 sqft · Townhouse · 39 Days on market

Built 1900 4,400 sqft lot Est $252k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 86 Kingston, a fantastic opportunity for owner occupy or income property investment! Currently tenant occupied for both units. Both 3 bedroom apartments with formal dining rooms, porch or balcony, and eat-in kitchen. Upgrades include newer plumbing, windows, and flooring.

Key facts

• Newer flooring
• Porch or balcony
• Newer plumbing

Tags

• FORMAL DINING ROOMS
• PORCH OR BALCONY
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• NEWER PLUMBING
• NEWER WINDOWS
• NEWER FLOORING

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $179,900 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$252,348) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $262 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $175k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.7%/yr); 94 active listings in the ZIP; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,503 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.25%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $252,348
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
26 Zittel St	0.11mi	6/2.0	2,456 (-1%)	5mo	$250,000	$102	89
88 Parkview Ave	0.26mi	6/2.0	2,464 (-0%)	9mo	$199,088	$81	79
15 Teresa Pl	0.25mi	6/2.0	2,376 (-4%)	10mo	$275,000	$116	73
81 Duerstein St	0.46mi	6/2.0	2,400 (-3%)	2mo	$140,000	$58	72
18 S Ryan St	0.23mi	6/2.0	2,244 (-9%)	3mo	$270,000	$120	71
109 Newman Pl	0.46mi	6/2.0	2,566 (+4%)	9mo	$281,000	$110	65
42 Meriden St	0.31mi	6/2.0	2,220 (-10%)	5mo	$250,000	$113	64
50 Hubbell Ave	0.65mi	6/2.0	2,409 (-3%)	1mo	$215,000	$89	64
128 Armin Pl	0.60mi	6/2.0	2,490 (+1%)	8mo	$242,500	$97	64
58 Roanoke Pkwy	0.49mi	5/2.0 (-1)	2,344 (-5%)	6mo	$225,000	$96	59
11 Indian Church Rd	0.29mi	5/2.0 (-1)	2,156 (-13%)	2mo	$182,000	$84	58
53 Duerstein St	0.43mi	6/2.0	2,112 (-15%)	0mo	$270,000	$128	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.48×
• Total profit: $124,787
• Equity at exit: $162,068

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.4%
• Equity multiple: 8.53×
• Total profit: $379,346
• Equity at exit: $349,506

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14210

• Home prices YoY: 13.8%
• Rents YoY: 12.7%
• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,906 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$225 /mo · $2,698/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $262

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,574

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-03-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-18
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-01-26
   listed $179,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 35% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,870
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$2,698
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,830
• − Management: −$1,830
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable income: $302
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$72
• After-tax cash flow: $3,076/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 15,563
• Household income: $54,197
• Rent vs Own: 53.9% rent · 46.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 959.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 21% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 52.34%
• Current HPI: 431.7951
• Rent YoY: ▲ 12.67%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-06 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-02-18 Contingent — WNYREIS
• 2026-01-26 Listed $179,900 WNYREIS