104 Sapphire Ln · Horseshoe Bend, AR 72512

$89,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 209 Days on market

0.30 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bed , 2 bath home, with lake view of Crown lake. Potential Vacation home, or investment opportunity. AS IS SALE.

Key facts

• Vacation home
• Lake view
• Detached

Tags

• LAKE VIEW
• VACATION HOME
• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
• DETACHED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approximate lot dimensions 95 x 150 (about 0.3 acre)
• Financial info: Cash or in-house financing available
• HOA & community: Community amenities include swimming pools, tennis courts, sauna, playground, picnic area, marina, and golf course

Exterior

• Parking: Parking pads
• Utilities: Public water; Septic; Electric via cooperative; Propane/butane gas
• Home design: Inside city limits; Level lot
• Construction: Rock and frame exterior; Metal/vinyl siding; Masonite; Architectural shingle roof; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Screened porch; Outside storage area; Paved road access

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas space heater; Heat pump
• Interior features: Washer and electric dryer connections; Sheet rock and paneling walls/ceilings
• Laundry & utility: Washer connection; Dryer connection (electric)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $406 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.7% vs local median 6.1% in Horseshoe Bend — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#183 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Izard CountyConsolidated School District (rural): math 27% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #171 of 238 in AR (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 442 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6 units permitted in Izard County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Izard County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 209 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $24k; list at $90k implies a 275% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 209 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.34%
• DSCR: 1.86
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $194,400
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
307 Church St	0.42mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,368 (-5%)	14mo	$185,000	$135	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $11,293
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $43,187
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72512

• Home prices YoY: -8.3%
• Active inventory: 442
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,300 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,348/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $406

Break-even live

Break-even rent $786

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $468	-5% $437	+0% $406	+5% $375	+10% $344
Rent	-10% $303	-5% $354	+0% $406	+5% $457	+10% $508
Rate	-1.0pp $451	-0.5pp $429	base $406	+0.5pp $382	+1.0pp $359

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
103 E Church St Horseshoe Bend, AR	2.0	1.5	1176	$1,300	$1.11	44d	1	0.18mi

Listing history 40 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $89,900 Under Contract 209 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,900 Active 209 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,900 Active 208 DOM
4. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,900 Active 206 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,900 Active 205 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,900 Active 202 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,900 Active 201 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $89,900 Active 200 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $89,900 Active 196 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,900 Active 195 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,900 Active 194 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,900 Active 193 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,900 Active 192 DOM
14. 2026-05-12
    price $89,900
15. 2026-05-04
    status Back on Market
16. 2026-05-02
    historical
17. 2026-05-01
    listed $89,900 Active 114-char remark

    Show marketing remark (114 chars)

    3 bed , 2 bath home, with lake view of Crown lake. Potential Vacation home, or investment opportunity. AS IS SALE.

18. 2026-01-29
    price $99,000
19. 2026-01-28
    price $99,000
20. 2026-01-06
    status Active
21. 2025-12-01
    status Active
22. 2025-12-01
    status Back on Market
23. 2025-10-30
    historical
24. 2025-10-29
    status Under Contract
25. 2025-10-15
    listed $115,000 Active
26. 2025-10-14
    listed $115,000 New Listing
27. 2020-06-16
    historical
28. 2020-06-09
    historical Take Backups
29. 2020-05-06
    listed $55,000 New Listing
30. 2017-04-20
    soldstatus $24,000 Sold
31. 2017-04-14
    soldstatus $24,000
32. 2017-04-13
    status Under Contract
33. 2017-03-14
    status Back on Market
34. 2017-03-14
    historical
35. 2017-03-14
    price $24,900
36. 2017-01-06
    price $34,000
37. 2016-12-15
    status Back on Market
38. 2016-12-14
    historical
39. 2016-09-15
    listed $39,000 New Listing
40. 1995-03-01
    soldstatus $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$1,348
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,248
• − Management: −$1,248
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $3,655
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$877
• After-tax cash flow: $3,991/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Izard CountyConsolidated School District
• NCES district ID: 0500021
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $30,245
• Composite: 22.66/100
• National rank: #8047
• State rank: #171 of 238 in AR

Livability — Horseshoe Bend

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #183
• US rank: #14584

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Horseshoe Bend, AR
• City population: 2,458
• Population (ZIP): 2,458

Population outlook (Izard County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,018 people
• By 2030: 12,761 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 12,331 · -5.3%
• By 2050: 12,041 · -7.5%
• By 2075: 11,516 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 10,549 · -19.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Izard

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.9) · D 16.0% · R 81.9% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.1pp toward R · 2008: -26.9pp · 2024: -65.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.9 2020: R+62.1 2016: R+54.3 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+26.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.58%
• Current HPI: 184.0807
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+124.8% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $89,900 CARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Relisted — CARMLS
• 2026-05-02 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $89,900 NEABOR MLS
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $99,000 CARMLS
• 2026-01-28 Price Changed $99,000 NEABOR MLS
• 2026-01-06 Relisted — NEABOR MLS
• 2025-12-01 Relisted — NEABOR MLS
• 2025-12-01 Relisted — CARMLS
• 2025-10-30 Delisted — NEABOR MLS
• 2025-10-29 Pending — CARMLS
• 2025-10-15 Listed $115,000 NEABOR MLS
• 2025-10-14 Listed $115,000 CARMLS
• 2020-06-16 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2020-06-09 Contingent — CARMLS
• 2020-05-06 Listed $55,000 CARMLS
• 2017-04-20 Sold (MLS) $24,000 CARMLS
• 2017-04-14 Sold (Public Records) $24,000 Public Records
• 2017-04-13 Pending — CARMLS
• 2017-03-14 Relisted — CARMLS
• 2017-03-14 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2017-03-14 Price Changed $24,900 CARMLS
• 2017-01-06 Price Changed $34,000 CARMLS
• 2016-12-15 Relisted — CARMLS
• 2016-12-14 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2016-09-15 Listed $39,000 CARMLS
• 1995-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-9.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $50 · -54.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.