1315 Johns Ave · Lehigh Acres, FL 33972

$275,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,271 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1998 0.50 ac lot Est $252k · 9% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• ARV discount +3.3/15.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This affordable home is in move in condition, it features 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, attached 2 car garage, screened lanai, and it's on a half acre lot. Traditional sale with quick response.

Key facts

• Half acre
• Cathedral ceilings
• Smart home

Tags

• HALF ACRE
• SMART HOME
• PROFESSIONALLY LANDSCAPED
• NEW LUXURY VINYL FLOORING
• GRAND ROOM
• CATHEDRAL CEILINGS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed
• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Driveway parking; Paved access; Garage door opener
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Cable available; Septic tank; Well water
• Home design: Single-story; Entry at level 1; East-facing
• Construction: Block, concrete and stucco construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Fence; Room for a pool; Lanai (open, screened); Porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Freezer; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Water softener
• Bedrooms: Includes a screened porch and a great room as room types
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric); Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Cathedral ceilings; Kitchen island; Open living/dining area; Tub with shower; Cable TV available; Split bedroom layout; Double-hung windows; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup inside; Dryer hookup inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-94 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $258k (6.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (25.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $205k (25.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.7% in Lehigh Acres — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#826 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, schools D-.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.3%/yr); 1611 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $126k; list at $275k implies a 117% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $205,451 (25.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.47%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $251,658
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3102 E 12th St	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,288 (+1%)	7mo	$255,000	$198	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.33% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-45,716
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-26,655
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33972

• Home prices YoY: -13.6%
• Rents YoY: 5.3%
• Active inventory: 1611
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,055 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$161 /mo · $1,927/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $-94

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,174

Max offer price $258,355

Occupancy floor 100%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1224 Hamilton Ave Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1347	$1,595	$1.18	16d	1	0.51mi
4103 13th St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,550	$1.72	11d	1	0.52mi
1108 Truman Ave Lehigh Acres, FL	2.0	1.0	1512	$1,650	$1.09	3d	1	0.64mi
913 Canton Ave Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1180	$1,600	$1.36	21d	1	1.11mi
821 Moore Ave Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	3.0	1822	$3,200	$1.76	10d	1	1.28mi
819 Moore Ave Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	3.0	1822	$3,200	$1.76	1d	1	1.30mi
2701 E 18th St Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1577	$2,000	$1.27	23d	1	1.33mi
807 Monroe Dr Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	965	$1,750	$1.81	3d	1	1.38mi
1943 E 12th St Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,850	$1.16	23d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $275,000 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $275,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $275,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $275,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,000 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $275,000 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $275,000 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $275,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $275,000 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $275,000 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $275,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $275,000 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $275,000 Active 4 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,927 · $161/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,282 · $190/mo
• Expected delta: +$356/yr (+$30/mo · 18.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,654
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$1,927
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,972
• − Management: −$1,972
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$5,997
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,439
• After-tax cash flow: $309/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lehigh Acres

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #826
• US rank: #20055

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lehigh Acres, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 130,638
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,285
• Household income: $73,819
• Rent vs Own: 19.9% rent · 80.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 190.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 21% Black 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 18%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 6% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 32% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -53.97%
• Current HPI: 343.484
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.33%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+80.9% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $275,000 FORTMLS
• 2016-05-19 Sold (Public Records) $126,500 Public Records
• 2016-05-17 Price Changed $124,900 FORTMLS
• 2016-05-16 Sold (MLS) $126,500 FORTMLS
• 2016-05-15 Price Changed $126,500 FORTMLS
• 2016-03-31 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2016-03-04 Price Changed $124,900 FORTMLS
• 2016-02-01 Price Changed $127,400 FORTMLS
• 2015-12-11 Price Changed $129,900 FORTMLS
• 2015-11-24 Listed $134,900 FORTMLS
• 2005-01-03 Sold (Public Records) $152,000 Public Records
• 2004-12-15 Price Changed $154,900 FORTMLS
• 2004-12-15 Sold (MLS) $152,000 FORTMLS

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,927 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.