427 E Morton St · Morganfield, KY 42437

$125,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,472 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 50 Days on market

6,534 sqft lot $85/sqft · 20% below area Est $156k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Brick home on corner lot. 2 Bd 1.5 ba with attached carport.

Key facts

• 6,534 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Listed 50 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential single-family home
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Concrete and off-street parking

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom; 1 bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $75 ($906/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $106k (15.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $106k (15.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#336 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Union County (rural): math 20% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #134 of 165 in KY (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Morganfield Elementary School (math 22% / reading 17%, grade F, #572 of 676 statewide, top 88%, 307 students, 71% FRL); Union County Middle School (math 15% / reading 36%, grade F, #181 of 217 statewide, top 84%, 437 students, 58% FRL); Union County High School (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #97 of 254 statewide, top 46%, 630 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.6%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Union County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $58k; list at $125k implies a 116% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $106,215 (15.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.59%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $155,723
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -19.73%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
215 N Mart St	0.13mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,416 (-4%)	11mo	$160,000	$113	74
718 E Lyon St	0.26mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,305 (-11%)	1mo	$185,000	$142	59
714 E Lyon St	0.24mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,300 (-12%)	1mo	$177,625	$137	59
211 E Geiger St	0.54mi	2/1.0	1,316 (-11%)	9mo	$200,000	$152	50
43 Senate Ave	0.51mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,350 (-8%)	5mo	$164,900	$122	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.56% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-7,762
• Equity at exit: $26,863

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $6,301
• Equity at exit: $25,475

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42437

• Home prices YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 19
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,062 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $672/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$223
• Net cashflow: $75

Break-even live

Break-even rent $967

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $125,000 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $125,000 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $125,000 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 31 DOM
16. 2026-04-28
    listed $125,000 Active 60-char remark
17. 2025-12-10
    listed $125,000 Active
18. 2010-01-01
    soldstatus $58,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $672 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,075 · $90/mo
• Expected delta: +$403/yr (+$34/mo · 59.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,746
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$672
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,020
• − Management: −$1,020
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$1,229
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$295
• After-tax cash flow: $1,201/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Union County
• NCES district ID: 2105640
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $39,776
• Composite: 22.27/100
• National rank: #8139
• State rank: #134 of 165 in KY

Livability — Morganfield

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #336
• US rank: #15964

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Morganfield, KY
• Population (ZIP): 7,250

Population outlook (Union County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,038 people
• By 2030: 14,681 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 13,607 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 12,406 · -17.5%
• By 2075: 9,720 · -35.4%
• By 2100: 7,841 · -47.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Black 10% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Union

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.3) · D 20.2% · R 78.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -53.1pp toward R · 2008: -5.2pp · 2024: -58.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.3 2020: R+52.2 2016: R+54.3 2012: R+33.6 2008: R+5.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.56%
• Current HPI: 222.4762
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+115.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Listed $125,000 HABOR
• 2025-12-10 Listed $125,000 HABOR
• 2010-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $672 · -1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.