1461 River Rd · Clyde, NY 14433

$125,500

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 528 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1955 3,485 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.0/30.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Rustic camp located on Clyde River, gutted interior, needs complete restoration. Deer, fish, wildlife, quiet location to enjoy nature.

Key facts

• Scenic river views
• Waterfront cottage
• Direct water access

Tags

• WATERFRONT COTTAGE
• DIRECT WATER ACCESS
• SCENIC RIVER VIEWS
• CONNECTIONS TO ERIE CANAL
• DECK OVERLOOKING THE WATER
• QUIET LOW TRAFFIC SETTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $126k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $273 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $126k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#497 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools C-, commute D, amenities F.
• Clyde-Savannah Central School District (rural): math 18% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #587 of 590 in NY (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP; 259 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (90 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($868 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.5% local appreciation)).
• Wayne County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $126k implies a 402% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.31%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.46% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.01×
• Total profit: $35,558
• Equity at exit: $59,743

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.80×
• Total profit: $98,407
• Equity at exit: $94,735

Cash invested: $35,140 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14433

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 8
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,306 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$658
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $578/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
• Net cashflow: $273

Break-even live

Break-even rent $960

Max offer price $125,500

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,375
• Closing costs: $3,765
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-08
   listed $125,500 Active
3. 2022-11-18
   soldstatus $25,000
4. 2022-11-17
   soldstatus $25,000 Closed Sale or Rented 134-char remark

   Show marketing remark (134 chars)

   Rustic camp located on Clyde River, gutted interior, needs complete restoration. Deer, fish, wildlife, quiet location to enjoy nature.

5. 2022-10-17
   status Under Contract- Do Not Show 134-char remark

   Show marketing remark (134 chars)

   Rustic camp located on Clyde River, gutted interior, needs complete restoration. Deer, fish, wildlife, quiet location to enjoy nature.

6. 2022-04-04
   listed $30,000 Active 134-char remark

   Show marketing remark (134 chars)

   Rustic camp located on Clyde River, gutted interior, needs complete restoration. Deer, fish, wildlife, quiet location to enjoy nature.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $578 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,350 · $112/mo
• Expected delta: +$771/yr (+$64/mo · 133.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,667
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,030
• − Property taxes: −$578
• − Insurance: −$628
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,253
• − Management: −$1,253
• − Depreciation: −$3,651
• Taxable income: $1,273
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$306
• After-tax cash flow: $2,968/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clyde-Savannah Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3607860
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,907
• Composite: 20.89/100
• National rank: #8490
• State rank: #587 of 590 in NY

Livability — Clyde

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #497
• US rank: #8718

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 4,319
• Population (ZIP): 4,319

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 85,662 people
• By 2030: 81,945 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 73,735 · -13.9%
• By 2050: 65,029 · -24.1%
• By 2075: 47,451 · -44.6%
• By 2100: 31,574 · -63.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 6% Polish 4% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · German/W. Germanic 6% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 38.5% · R 61.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.2pp toward R · 2008: -9.9pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+19.6 2016: R+26.1 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+9.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.46%
• Current HPI: 168.8711
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+318.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $125,500 UNYREIS
• 2022-11-18 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
• 2022-11-17 Sold (MLS) $25,000 UNYREIS
• 2022-10-17 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2022-04-04 Listed $30,000 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $578 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.