16225 N 29th St -- #28 · Phoenix, AZ 85032

$56,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 868 sqft · Manufactured · 239 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1979 Good condition $65/sqft · 62% below area ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -5.8

Listing remarks MLS

Step inside this beautifully updated manufactured home in Arbor Manor, Phoenix, AZ, where modern finishes meet comfort and style. The interior has been completely refreshed, featuring new Pergo laminate flooring that flows seamlessly throughout, offering the look of rich hardwood with durability built for everyday living. Freshly textured walls add depth and warmth, creating a welcoming atmosphere in every room. The open floor plan allows natural light to fill the space, highlighting the updated kitchen and inviting living areas. With thoughtful upgrades throughout, this home is truly move-in ready. Located in the desirable Arbor Manor community, you'll enjoy convenient access to shopping, dining, and major freeways while being part of a friendly neighborhood.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Community pool
• Built 1979

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $56k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $363 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($949 rent vs $56k).
• Recommended offer: $49k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.1% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Paradise Valley Unified District (4241) (urban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #56 of 249 in AZ (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Palomino Primary School (math 17% / reading 8%, grade F, #944 of 1,109 statewide, top 87%, 575 students, 83% FRL); Palomino Intermediate School (math 7% / reading 19%, grade F, #169 of 218 statewide, top 79%, 435 students, 82% FRL); Paradise Valley High School (math 38% / reading 43%, grade F, #69 of 381 statewide, top 18%, 1,874 students, 30% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 29% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 22% at this address vs 42% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Paradise Valley Unified District (4241) average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 428 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 53d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 14% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $387 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 239 days — a 12% lower offer ($49k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $49,280 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 239 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.76%
• DSCR: 2.24
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $148,207
• List price: $56,000
• Delta: -62.21%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16225 N Cave Creek Rd #1	0.52mi	2/2.0	800 (-8%)	0mo	$7,000	$9	58
2644 E Kelton Ln	0.41mi	2/1.8	932 (+7%)	16mo	$225,900	$242	52
16207 N 34th Way	0.65mi	2/1.0	801 (-8%)	8mo	$120,000	$150	50
16444 N 32nd Pl	0.39mi	2/2.0	990 (+14%)	6mo	$180,000	$182	49
2618 E Sandra Ter	0.39mi	3/1.5 (+1)	820 (-6%)	22mo	$170,000	$207	47
3239 E Kings Ave	0.43mi	2/2.0	980 (+13%)	10mo	$190,000	$194	46
16239 N 32nd Pl	0.37mi	2/2.0	961 (+11%)	22mo	$212,000	$221	42
16005 N 32nd St #121	0.43mi	1/1.0 (-1)	800 (-8%)	24mo	$15,000	$19	42
16225 N Cave Creek Rd #32	0.63mi	2/2.0	840 (-3%)	23mo	$79,900	$95	42
15625 N 25th St #21	0.62mi	3/2.0 (+1)	980 (+13%)	12mo	$45,300	$46	30
2547 E Tierra Buena Ln E	0.52mi	3/2.0 (+1)	986 (+14%)	23mo	$300,000	$304	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $11,258
• Equity at exit: $8,350

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.84×
• Total profit: $28,858
• Equity at exit: $4,842

Cash invested: $15,680 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 7 active · 4 under contract
• Months of supply: 10.5 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $52,000 ($62/sqft)
• Median days on market: 179 d
• This list price: 57% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +173.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 85032

• Rents YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 428
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $949 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$294
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$70 /mo · $840/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$199
• Net cashflow: $363

Break-even live

Break-even rent $490

Max offer price $56,000

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $401	-5% $382	+0% $363	+5% $343	+10% $324
Rent	-10% $288	-5% $325	+0% $363	+5% $400	+10% $438
Rate	-1.0pp $391	-0.5pp $377	base $363	+0.5pp $348	+1.0pp $333

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,000
• Closing costs: $1,680
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16225 N 30th St #9 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.5	968	$1,350	$1.39	73d	1	0.12mi
2826 E Le Marche Ave Unit 102 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	725	$1,000	$1.38	54d	1	0.14mi
2838 E Monte Cristo Ave Unit 102 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	780	$1,200	$1.54	57d	1	0.14mi
3027 E Grandview Rd Unit 3027-B Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	912	$1,375	$1.51	57d	1	0.15mi
2826 E Monte Cristo Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	929	$1,095	$1.18	17d	1	0.16mi
2826 E Monte Cristo Ave Unit 203 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	929	$1,095	$1.18	2d	1	0.16mi
16402 N 31st St #119 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	933	$1,375	$1.47	53d	1	0.16mi
16402 N 31st St #119 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	933	$1,375	$1.47	67d	1	0.16mi
2807 E Paradise Ln Unit 103 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	3.0	1124	$1,475	$1.31	73d	1	0.16mi
2807 E Paradise Ln Unit 102 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	700	$975	$1.39	42d	1	0.16mi
2807 E Paradise Ln Unit 102 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	700	$975	$1.39	16d	1	0.16mi
2844 E Marconi Ave Unit 101 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	3.0	1123	$1,550	$1.38	71d	1	0.18mi
2844 E Marconi Ave Unit 102 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	650	$1,000	$1.54	37d	1	0.18mi
2807 E Le Marche Ave Apt 203 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	884	$945	$1.07	18d	1	0.19mi
2802 E Monte Cristo Ave Unit 102 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	929	$950	$1.02	73d	1	0.21mi
2837 E Marconi Ave Unit 203 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	900	$975	$1.08	73d	1	0.21mi
2837 E Marconi Ave Unit 102 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	700	$950	$1.36	73d	1	0.21mi
2807 E Monte Cristo Ave Unit 103 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	900	$865	$0.96	7d	1	0.21mi
2846 E Kathleen Rd Unit 103 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.5	1106	$949	$0.86	38d	1	0.22mi
2846 E Kathleen Rd Unit 103 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.5	1106	$949	$0.86	73d	1	0.22mi
2846 E Kathleen Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1106	$949	$0.86	73d	1	0.22mi
2801 E Monte Cristo Ave Apt 201 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	900	$875	$0.97	25d	1	0.22mi
16401 N 31st St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	725	$1,545	$2.13	31d	1	0.24mi
2822 E Kathleen Rd Unit 203 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	850	$1,050	$1.24	39d	1	0.24mi
2819 E Marconi Ave Unit 201 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	900	$950	$1.06	73d	1	0.24mi
2820 E Kathleen Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	975	$1,050	$1.08	2d	1	0.24mi
2807 E Marconi Ave Unit 101 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	967	$925	$0.96	2d	1	0.25mi
2807 E Marconi Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	967	$975	$1.01	2d	1	0.25mi
2814 E Kathleen Rd #102 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	700	$950	$1.36	73d	1	0.26mi
2821 E Kathleen Rd Unit 101 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.5	1106	$900	$0.81	73d	1	0.27mi
2821 E Kathleen Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1106	$900	$0.81	73d	1	0.27mi
15801 N 29th St #1 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1108	$1,650	$1.49	71d	1	0.27mi
15801 N 29th St #5 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.5	1121	$1,575	$1.40	2d	1	0.27mi
16437 N 31st St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	687	$1,049	$1.53	13d	6	0.29mi
15826 N 32nd St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	611	$1,436	$2.35	28d	25	0.32mi
2845 E Tracy Ln #4 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	780	$1,600	$2.05	17d	1	0.34mi
16815 N 29th St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$1,199	$1.41	73d	1	0.36mi
16815 N 29th St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$1,050	$1.23	66d	3	0.36mi
3002 E Waltann Ln Unit 2 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	650	$849	$1.31	2d	1	0.36mi
3002 E Waltann Ln Unit 2 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	656	$849	$1.29	22d	1	0.36mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $56,000 Active 239 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $56,000 Active 237 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $56,000 Active 236 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $56,000 Active 235 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $56,000 Active 234 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $56,000 Active 231 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $56,000 Active 230 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $56,000 Active 229 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $56,000 Active 228 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $56,000 Active 226 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $56,000 Active 224 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $56,000 Active 223 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $56,000 Active 222 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $56,000 Active 221 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $56,000 Active 220 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $56,000 Active 218 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $56,000 Active 217 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $56,000 Active 216 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $56,000 Active 215 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $56,000 Active 214 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $56,000 Active 213 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $56,000 Active 212 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $56,000 Active 211 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $56,000 Active 210 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $56,000 Active 209 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $56,000 Active 207 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $56,000 Active 206 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $56,000 Active 205 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $56,000 Active 204 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $56,000 Active 203 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $56,000 Active 202 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $56,000 Active 201 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $56,000 Active 200 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $56,000 Active 199 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $56,000 Active 198 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $56,000 Active 197 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $56,000 Active 196 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $56,000 Active 194 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $56,000 Active 192 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $56,000 Active 191 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $56,000 Active 188 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $56,000 Active 187 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $56,000 Active 186 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $56,000 Active 185 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $56,000 Active 183 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $56,000 Active 182 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $56,000 Active 179 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $56,000 Active 178 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $56,000 Active 177 DOM
50. 2026-06-04
    days on market $56,000 Active 174 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,388
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,137
• − Property taxes: −$840
• − Insurance: −$280
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$911
• − Management: −$911
• − Depreciation: −$1,629
• Taxable income: $3,680
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$883
• After-tax cash flow: $3,469/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $4,340–$13,020 screening

This beautifully updated manufactured home in Arbor Manor is move-in ready with modern finishes and a fresh exterior. It offers a great opportunity for investors looking to capitalize on the desirable location and move-in condition.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace countertops and backsplash in kitchen — Modernizes kitchen and adds value ↑
• Both Install new lighting fixtures throughout — Improves ambiance and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 22/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Palomino Primary School F AZ #944/1,109 Nat'l #37,719/41,679 Middle Greenway Middle School F AZ #178/218 Nat'l #13,125/14,009 High Paradise Valley High School F AZ #69/381 Nat'l #8,052/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paradise Valley Unified District (4241)
• NCES district ID: 0405930
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $64,106
• Composite: 37.89/100
• National rank: #4316
• State rank: #56 of 249 in AZ

B Composite livability gradescore 75/100

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,979,203 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 70,839
• Household income: $78,643
• Rent vs Own: 42.2% rent · 57.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 17% Asian 4% Black 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 21% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -488.65%
• Current HPI: 339.4181
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.46%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-20.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $64,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $70,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $74,000 ARMLS
• 2025-12-18 Price Changed $78,500 ARMLS
• 2025-12-12 Listed $80,000 ARMLS