16225 N 29th St -- #28 · Phoenix, AZ 85032

$56,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 868 sqft · Manufactured · 188 Days on market

Built 1979 Good condition $65/sqft · 62% below area ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step inside this beautifully updated manufactured home in Arbor Manor, Phoenix, AZ, where modern finishes meet comfort and style. The interior has been completely refreshed, featuring new Pergo laminate flooring that flows seamlessly throughout, offering the look of rich hardwood with durability built for everyday living. Freshly textured walls add depth and warmth, creating a welcoming atmosphere in every room. The open floor plan allows natural light to fill the space, highlighting the updated kitchen and inviting living areas. With thoughtful upgrades throughout, this home is truly move-in ready. Located in the desirable Arbor Manor community, you'll enjoy convenient access to shopping, dining, and major freeways while being part of a friendly neighborhood.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Community pool
• Built 1979

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $56k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $626 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $56k).
• Recommended offer: $49k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.7% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Paradise Valley Unified District (4241) (urban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #56 of 249 in AZ (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 337 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $387 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 188 days — a 12% lower offer ($49k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $49,280 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 188 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 47.93%
• DSCR: 3.13
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $147,812
• List price: $56,000
• Delta: -62.11%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2644 E Kelton Ln	0.41mi	2/1.8	932 (+7%)	14mo	$225,900	$242	53
16207 N 34th Way	0.65mi	2/1.0	801 (-8%)	6mo	$120,000	$150	52
16444 N 32nd Pl	0.39mi	2/2.0	990 (+14%)	4mo	$180,000	$182	51
2618 E Sandra Ter	0.39mi	3/1.5 (+1)	820 (-6%)	21mo	$170,000	$207	48
3239 E Kings Ave	0.43mi	2/2.0	980 (+13%)	8mo	$190,000	$194	48
16239 N 32nd Pl	0.37mi	2/2.0	961 (+11%)	21mo	$212,000	$221	44
16005 N 32nd St #121	0.43mi	1/1.0 (-1)	800 (-8%)	22mo	$15,000	$19	43
16225 N Cave Creek Rd #32	0.63mi	2/2.0	840 (-3%)	22mo	$79,900	$95	43
15625 N 25th St #21	0.62mi	3/2.0 (+1)	980 (+13%)	11mo	$45,300	$46	31
2547 E Tierra Buena Ln E	0.52mi	3/2.0 (+1)	986 (+14%)	21mo	$300,000	$304	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 41.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.73×
• Total profit: $27,074
• Equity at exit: $8,350

10-year hold

• IRR: 46.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.86×
• Total profit: $60,489
• Equity at exit: $4,842

Cash invested: $15,680 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85032

• Rents YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 337
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,283 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$294
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$70 /mo · $840/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $626

Break-even live

Break-even rent $490

Max offer price $56,000

Occupancy floor 46%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $665	-5% $646	+0% $626	+5% $607	+10% $588
Rent	-10% $525	-5% $576	+0% $626	+5% $677	+10% $728
Rate	-1.0pp $654	-0.5pp $641	base $626	+0.5pp $612	+1.0pp $597

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,000
• Closing costs: $1,680
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16225 N 30th St #9 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.5	968	$1,350	$1.39	25d	1	0.12mi
2826 E Le Marche Ave Unit 102 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	725	$1,000	$1.38	6d	1	0.14mi
2838 E Monte Cristo Ave Unit 102 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	780	$1,200	$1.54	8d	1	0.14mi
3027 E Grandview Rd Unit 3027-B Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	912	$1,375	$1.51	8d	1	0.15mi
2826 E Monte Cristo Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	929	$1,295	$1.39	15d	1	0.16mi
2826 E Monte Cristo Ave Unit 203 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	929	$1,295	$1.39	17d	1	0.16mi
16402 N 31st St #119 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	933	$1,375	$1.47	4d	1	0.16mi
16402 N 31st St #119 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	933	$1,375	$1.47	18d	1	0.16mi
2807 E Paradise Ln Unit 103 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	3.0	1124	$1,475	$1.31	25d	1	0.16mi
2844 E Marconi Ave Unit 101 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	3.0	1123	$1,550	$1.38	22d	1	0.18mi
2807 E Monte Cristo Ave Unit 102 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	900	$865	$0.96	25d	1	0.21mi
2802 E Monte Cristo Ave Unit 102 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	929	$950	$1.02	25d	1	0.21mi
2837 E Marconi Ave Unit 203 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	900	$975	$1.08	25d	1	0.21mi
2837 E Marconi Ave Unit 102 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	700	$950	$1.36	25d	1	0.21mi
2846 E Kathleen Rd Unit 103 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.5	1106	$949	$0.86	25d	1	0.22mi
2846 E Kathleen Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1106	$949	$0.86	25d	1	0.22mi
2822 E Kathleen Rd Unit 203 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	850	$1,100	$1.29	6d	1	0.24mi
2819 E Marconi Ave Unit 201 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	900	$950	$1.06	25d	1	0.24mi
2814 E Kathleen Rd #102 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	700	$950	$1.36	25d	1	0.26mi
2821 E Kathleen Rd Unit 101 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.5	1106	$900	$0.81	25d	1	0.27mi
2821 E Kathleen Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1106	$900	$0.81	25d	1	0.27mi
15801 N 29th St #1 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1108	$1,650	$1.49	22d	1	0.27mi
16437 N 31st St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	687	$1,049	$1.53	3d	4	0.29mi
15826 N 32nd St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	611	$1,436	$2.35	8d	25	0.32mi
2845 E Tracy Ln #4 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	780	$1,750	$2.24	11d	1	0.34mi
16815 N 29th St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$1,050	$1.23	17d	3	0.36mi
16815 N 29th St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$1,199	$1.41	25d	1	0.36mi
16815 N 29th St Apt 146 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$999	$1.18	25d	1	0.38mi
16816 N 29th St Apt 202 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	800	$1,100	$1.38	8d	1	0.38mi
15605 N 29th St Unit 15605UNIT10-1 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$899	$1.06	25d	1	0.39mi
16645 N 31st St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	483	$1,595	$3.30	2d	6	0.39mi
15651 N 27th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	878	$1,300	$1.48	25d	1	0.39mi
15601 N 30th St Unit 5 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	950	$1,375	$1.45	15d	1	0.40mi
2616 E Monte Cristo Ave Unit 2624-4 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	825	$999	$1.21	6d	1	0.41mi
2616 E Monte Cristo Ave Unit 2624-2 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	825	$1,095	$1.33	25d	1	0.41mi
15601 N 27th St #18 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	888	$1,495	$1.68	14d	1	0.46mi
2931 E Beck Ln Apt 1 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	852	$1,175	$1.38	6d	1	0.46mi
16005 N 32nd St #148 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	780	$1,249	$1.60	0d	1	0.46mi
15601 N 27th St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0–2.5	894	$1,422	$1.59	5d	2	0.48mi
15417 N 29th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	652	$1,134	$1.74	0d	3	0.48mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $56,000 Active 188 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $56,000 Active 187 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $56,000 Active 186 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $56,000 Active 185 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $56,000 Active 183 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $56,000 Active 182 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $56,000 Active 179 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $56,000 Active 178 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $56,000 Active 177 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $56,000 Active 174 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $56,000 Active 173 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $56,000 Active 172 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $56,000 Active 171 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $56,000 Active 170 DOM
15. 2026-03-03
    price $64,000 770-char remark

    Show marketing remark (770 chars)

    Step inside this beautifully updated manufactured home in Arbor Manor, Phoenix, AZ, where modern finishes meet comfort and style. The interior has been completely refreshed, featuring new Pergo laminate flooring that flows seamlessly throughout, offering the look of rich hardwood with durability built for everyday living. Freshly textured walls add depth and warmth, creating a welcoming atmosphere in every room. The open floor plan allows natural light to fill the space, highlighting the updated kitchen and inviting living areas. With thoughtful upgrades throughout, this home is truly move-in ready. Located in the desirable Arbor Manor community, you'll enjoy convenient access to shopping, dining, and major freeways while being part of a friendly neighborhood.

16. 2026-02-05
    price $70,000 770-char remark

    Show marketing remark (770 chars)

    Step inside this beautifully updated manufactured home in Arbor Manor, Phoenix, AZ, where modern finishes meet comfort and style. The interior has been completely refreshed, featuring new Pergo laminate flooring that flows seamlessly throughout, offering the look of rich hardwood with durability built for everyday living. Freshly textured walls add depth and warmth, creating a welcoming atmosphere in every room. The open floor plan allows natural light to fill the space, highlighting the updated kitchen and inviting living areas. With thoughtful upgrades throughout, this home is truly move-in ready. Located in the desirable Arbor Manor community, you'll enjoy convenient access to shopping, dining, and major freeways while being part of a friendly neighborhood.

17. 2026-01-15
    price $74,000 770-char remark

    Show marketing remark (770 chars)

    Step inside this beautifully updated manufactured home in Arbor Manor, Phoenix, AZ, where modern finishes meet comfort and style. The interior has been completely refreshed, featuring new Pergo laminate flooring that flows seamlessly throughout, offering the look of rich hardwood with durability built for everyday living. Freshly textured walls add depth and warmth, creating a welcoming atmosphere in every room. The open floor plan allows natural light to fill the space, highlighting the updated kitchen and inviting living areas. With thoughtful upgrades throughout, this home is truly move-in ready. Located in the desirable Arbor Manor community, you'll enjoy convenient access to shopping, dining, and major freeways while being part of a friendly neighborhood.

18. 2025-12-18
    price $78,500 770-char remark

    Show marketing remark (770 chars)

    Step inside this beautifully updated manufactured home in Arbor Manor, Phoenix, AZ, where modern finishes meet comfort and style. The interior has been completely refreshed, featuring new Pergo laminate flooring that flows seamlessly throughout, offering the look of rich hardwood with durability built for everyday living. Freshly textured walls add depth and warmth, creating a welcoming atmosphere in every room. The open floor plan allows natural light to fill the space, highlighting the updated kitchen and inviting living areas. With thoughtful upgrades throughout, this home is truly move-in ready. Located in the desirable Arbor Manor community, you'll enjoy convenient access to shopping, dining, and major freeways while being part of a friendly neighborhood.

19. 2025-12-12
    listed $80,000 Active 770-char remark

    Show marketing remark (770 chars)

    Step inside this beautifully updated manufactured home in Arbor Manor, Phoenix, AZ, where modern finishes meet comfort and style. The interior has been completely refreshed, featuring new Pergo laminate flooring that flows seamlessly throughout, offering the look of rich hardwood with durability built for everyday living. Freshly textured walls add depth and warmth, creating a welcoming atmosphere in every room. The open floor plan allows natural light to fill the space, highlighting the updated kitchen and inviting living areas. With thoughtful upgrades throughout, this home is truly move-in ready. Located in the desirable Arbor Manor community, you'll enjoy convenient access to shopping, dining, and major freeways while being part of a friendly neighborhood.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,392
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,137
• − Property taxes: −$840
• − Insurance: −$280
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,231
• − Management: −$1,231
• − Depreciation: −$1,629
• Taxable income: $7,043
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,690
• After-tax cash flow: $5,825/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This beautifully updated manufactured home in Arbor Manor is move-in ready with modern finishes and a fresh exterior. It offers a great opportunity for investors looking to capitalize on the desirable location and move-in condition.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace countertops and backsplash in kitchen — Modernizes kitchen and adds value
• Both Install new lighting fixtures throughout — Improves ambiance and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace countertops and backsplash in kitchen — Modernizes kitchen and adds value ↑
• Both Install new lighting fixtures throughout — Improves ambiance and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paradise Valley Unified District (4241)
• NCES district ID: 0405930
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $64,106
• Composite: 37.89/100
• National rank: #4316
• State rank: #56 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 70,839
• Household income: $78,643
• Rent vs Own: 42.2% rent · 57.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2887.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 17% Asian 4% Black 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 21% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -488.65%
• Current HPI: 339.4181
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.46%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-20.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $64,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $70,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $74,000 ARMLS
• 2025-12-18 Price Changed $78,500 ARMLS
• 2025-12-12 Listed $80,000 ARMLS