3207 W Molly Ln · Phoenix, AZ 85083

$580,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,864 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 2001 6,325 sqft lot Est $616k · 6% under $55/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.1/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious open floorplan with private pool. Family Room open to Kitchen, Living Room and Formal Dining seperated by entryway. Large Master Suite. Great home for entertaining.

Key facts

• 6,325 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty included
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with quarterly fee (includes grounds maintenance); No visible truck/trailer/RV/boat allowed; Community playground; Biking/walking paths

Exterior

• Parking: 2 open parking spaces; 2 covered parking spaces; 2-car garage with direct access, garage door opener and attached garage cabinets
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Stucco and painted wood frame construction; Tile/concrete roof
• Exterior features: Private pool (heated, above-ground spa features); Gazebo; Block fencing; Desert front yard; Desert back yard; Grass in back yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Built-in microwave; Kitchen island; Walk-in pantry; Eat-in kitchen; Granite counters
• Bedrooms: Up to 6 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Granite counters; Double vanity in main baths; Eat-in kitchen; 9+ foot flat ceilings; Kitchen island; Full bath in primary bedroom; Built-in microwave
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $580k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-816 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $436k (24.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $344k (40.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $344k (40.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Deer Valley Unified District (4246) (urban): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #33 of 249 in AZ (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Stetson Hills School (math 69% / reading 67%, grade B+, #65 of 1,109 statewide, top 6%, 912 students, 14% FRL); Sandra Day O'Connor High School (math 43% / reading 48%, grade D-, #58 of 381 statewide, top 15%, 2,567 students, 13% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 123 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $62k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $58k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$100k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($571k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $175k; list at $580k implies a 232% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $344,477 (40.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.03%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 14.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $615,760
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3144 W Maya Way	0.08mi	4/2.5	2,874 (+0%)	8mo	$535,000	$186	87
3215 W Molly Ln	0.02mi	4/2.5	2,864 (0%)	15mo	$570,000	$199	84
3219 W Molly Ln	0.03mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,094 (+8%)	0mo	$626,000	$202	78
3122 W Molly Ln	0.08mi	4/2.5	2,660 (-7%)	6mo	$527,500	$198	77
27041 N 31st Dr	0.25mi	4/2.0	2,859 (-0%)	16mo	$615,000	$215	71
3115 W Molly Ln	0.09mi	5/2.5 (+1)	3,084 (+8%)	12mo	$600,000	$195	66
27227 N 31st Dr	0.32mi	4/2.0	2,958 (+3%)	14mo	$649,000	$219	64
26812 N 32nd Ln	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,724 (-5%)	22mo	$715,000	$262	60
3523 W Buckhorn Trl	0.53mi	4/3.0	2,692 (-6%)	8mo	$654,735	$243	59
3614 W Alyssa Ln	0.54mi	4/3.5	2,744 (-4%)	13mo	$589,500	$215	55
3514 W Riordan Ranch Rd	0.44mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,780 (-3%)	19mo	$649,000	$233	54
3524 W Alyssa Ln	0.49mi	4/2.5	2,524 (-12%)	12mo	$560,000	$222	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 2.29% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $261,208
• Equity at exit: $522,510

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.96×
• Total profit: $804,815
• Equity at exit: $1,126,812

Cash invested: $162,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85083

• Home prices YoY: 5.4%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 123
• Price-to-rent: 14.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,445 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,042
• Tax from tax record: −$199 /mo · $2,394/yr
• Insurance: −$242
• HOA: −$55
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$723
• Net cashflow: $-816

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,478

Max offer price $435,787

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-488	-5% $-652	+0% $-816	+5% $-981	+10% $-1,145
Rent	-10% $-1,088	-5% $-952	+0% $-816	+5% $-680	+10% $-544
Rate	-1.0pp $-524	-0.5pp $-669	base $-816	+0.5pp $-967	+1.0pp $-1,120

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $145,000
• Closing costs: $17,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2510 W Big Oak St Unit 66 Phoenix, AZ	4.0	3.0	2232	$6,500	$2.91	45d	1	0.93mi
2448 W Maximo Way Phoenix, AZ	3.0	3.5	2455	$2,900	$1.18	26d	1	0.95mi
2443 W Maximo Way Phoenix, AZ	3.0	3.5	2455	$2,900	$1.18	0d	1	0.98mi
2443 W Maximo Way Phoenix, AZ	3.0	3.5	2455	$2,900	$1.18	26d	1	0.98mi
26411 N 24th Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	3.5	2455	$3,200	$1.30	1d	1	1.03mi
2531 W White Feather Ln Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.5	1982	$2,445	$1.23	45d	1	1.09mi
2314 W Spur Dr Phoenix, AZ	5.0	4.0	2762	$2,750	$1.00	7d	1	1.11mi
2310 W Spur Dr Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	2297	$4,000	$1.74	5d	1	1.12mi
2518 W White Feather Ln Phoenix, AZ	4.0	3.0	2206	$2,425	$1.10	45d	1	1.13mi
26021 N 23rd Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1992	$2,795	$1.40	4d	1	1.18mi
28231 N 25th Dl Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	2236	$2,500	$1.12	45d	1	1.20mi
25920 N 22nd Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1967	$2,795	$1.42	26d	1	1.22mi
2319 W Running Deer Trl Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.5	2192	$2,320	$1.06	6d	1	1.27mi
24833 N 37th Ln Glendale, AZ	3.0	2.5	2593	$3,500	$1.35	26d	1	1.28mi
26041 N Fernbush Dr Phoenix, AZ	4.0	3.0	2901	$3,599	$1.24	45d	1	1.30mi
3726 W Villa Linda Dr Glendale, AZ	4.0	3.0	2285	$3,800	$1.66	45d	1	1.30mi
2205 W Gambit Trl Phoenix, AZ	4.0	3.0	3128	$5,000	$1.60	45d	1	1.31mi
3173 W Peak View Rd Phoenix, AZ	4.0	3.0	2649	$5,000	$1.89	7d	1	1.33mi
26803 N 21st Dr Phoenix, AZ	5.0	2.5	2783	$2,650	$0.95	1d	1	1.35mi
3119 W Via Dona Rd Phoenix, AZ	5.0	3.0	1946	$2,950	$1.52	1d	1	1.38mi
3853 W Fallen Leaf Ln Glendale, AZ	4.0	2.5	2593	$6,000	$2.31	45d	1	1.44mi
2008 W Maya Way Phoenix, AZ	5.0	3.0	2872	$2,999	$1.04	45d	1	1.48mi
1966 W Hide Trl Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	2054	$2,950	$1.44	45d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $55 · $660/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $580,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $580,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $580,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $580,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $580,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $580,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $580,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $580,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $580,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 671-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $580,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,394 · $199/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,828 · $319/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,434/yr (+$120/mo · 59.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,337
• − Mortgage interest: −$32,489
• − Property taxes: −$2,394
• − Insurance: −$2,900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,307
• − Management: −$3,307
• − HOA: −$660
• − Depreciation: −$16,873
• Taxable loss: −$20,592
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,942
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,854/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Deer Valley Unified District (4246)
• NCES district ID: 0407750
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $72,516
• Composite: 47.0/100
• National rank: #2346
• State rank: #33 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 21,022
• Household income: $149,087
• Rent vs Own: 10.5% rent · 89.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 81.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Asian 10% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2% Scandinavian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Other Indo-European 7% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 14.78%
• Current HPI: 289.2128
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.29%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+114.9% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $580,000 ARMLS
• 2011-04-18 Sold (MLS) $174,900 ARMLS
• 2011-03-03 Pending — ARMLS
• 2011-02-24 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2011-02-11 Price Changed $174,900 ARMLS
• 2011-02-01 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2011-01-18 Pending — ARMLS
• 2010-12-31 Price Changed $179,900 ARMLS
• 2010-12-02 Price Changed $194,900 ARMLS
• 2010-11-01 Listed $202,900 ARMLS
• 2010-09-21 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2010-09-17 Price Changed $170,900 ARMLS
• 2010-08-30 Price Changed $179,000 ARMLS
• 2010-08-14 Price Changed $189,000 ARMLS
• 2010-06-28 Listed $219,000 ARMLS
• 2007-10-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2007-07-31 Listed $349,000 ARMLS
• 2006-08-09 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2006-03-16 Listed $399,900 ARMLS
• 2004-06-18 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2004-03-19 Listed $269,900 ARMLS

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,394 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.