7004 San Bartolo St · Carlsbad, CA 92011

$249,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Manufactured · 242 Days on market

Manufactured home 55+ age-restricted Built 1972 Good condition $162/sqft · 30% below area Est $356k · 30% under ↓ 29% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• Appreciation +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -6.1

Listing remarks MLS

Updated and lovingly maintained 2 bedroom, 2 bath home in the prestigious 55+ community of Lakeshore Gardens! Remodeled kitchen with granite counter tops, tiled backsplash, stainless steel gas range, microwave, dishwasher and refrigerator. Extensive cabinets and bar style seating! Open concept floor plan. Hardwood laminate flooring and tiled kitchen and bathrooms. Expanded dual pane living room windows and rare corner fireplace! Ceiling fans in living and grand rooms. Oversized shower and separate tub in main bathroom. Open hutch across from dining area for additional storage. Crown molding throughout! Double doors to spacious covered deck. Unique rear and side yard which back up to a forested green belt making it peaceful, private & perfect for relaxing! Lakeshore Gardens is an active 55+, luxury manufactured home community located in Carlsbad! It is located on 54 acres of land, has 384 home sites, & 10 small lakes. Lush landscaping, greenbelts & mature trees throughout, giving the community a park-like feel. The ponds are home to turtles & many fish. Nature lovers have the best of all worlds here! The expansive 2 story clubhouse has a country club feel. The upper-level offers a card room with fireplace, billiard room & a beautiful balcony to enjoy ocean views. Lower level has a fabulous library, recreation room with a stage, commercial grade kitchen & restrooms. A large patio with fountain, fire pit, & outdoor fireplace just outside of the community room. A gated heated pool & spa, beautiful gym, ping pong table, RV parking & more. The entire park is enclosed with a 6 ft wall and security gates. So many activities in the community, almost daily, so residents can find friendship & companionship while attending events they enjoy. Activities include card games, bingo, monthly breakfasts, weekly potlucks, craft groups, golf groups, ladies’ luncheons & much more! You can be as active as you choose, right here at Lakeshore Gardens!

Key facts

• Expanded windows
• Corner gas fireplace
• Granite counter tops

Tags

• REMODELED CENTRAL KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTER TOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL GAS RANGE
• OPEN CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• EXPANDED WINDOWS
• CORNER GAS FIREPLACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $249k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $249k).
• Recommended offer: $219k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.9% vs local median 2.0% in Carlsbad — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#67 in CA, #2,526 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety D+, cost of living F.
• Carlsbad Unified (urban): math 68% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #87 of 1,400 in CA (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Pacific Rim Elementary (673 students, 10% FRL); Aviara Oaks Middle (1,021 students, 16% FRL); Carlsbad High (2,290 students, 23% FRL) — zoned schools at 16% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 112 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 48d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 73% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (1.8% local appreciation)).
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.8% appreciation + 3.5% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 242 days — a 12% lower offer ($219k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $90k (27%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 242 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.67%
• DSCR: 2.05
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $356,375
• List price: $249,000
• Delta: -30.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7024 San Bartolo Unit 19 A	0.16mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,544 (+0%)	4mo	$425,000	$275	84
7269 San Luis St #244	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,461 (-5%)	1mo	$170,000	$116	83
7018 San Carlos St #60	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-6%)	8mo	$392,000	$272	79
7241 San Luis St	0.34mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,546 (+1%)	0mo	$400,000	$259	78
7228 San Benito St #351	0.29mi	2/2.0	1,464 (-5%)	1mo	$175,000	$120	77
7106 Santa Cruz #56	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,464 (-5%)	10mo	$390,000	$266	75
7140 Santa Rosa St	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-6%)	8mo	$191,000	$133	74
7209 San Luis St #169	0.36mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-6%)	0mo	$308,950	$215	72
7207 Santa Barbara St #154	0.16mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,656 (+8%)	5mo	$513,300	$310	71
7241 Santa Barbara St #300	0.25mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-12%)	1mo	$175,000	$130	67
7313 San Luis St #236	0.47mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,548 (+1%)	6mo	$450,000	$291	66
7311 San Luis St #237	0.50mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,359 (-12%)	3mo	$236,550	$174	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.75% appreciation · 3.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.49×
• Total profit: $103,701
• Equity at exit: $94,844

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.88×
• Total profit: $270,728
• Equity at exit: $134,035

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 25 active · 12 under contract
• Months of supply: 13.6 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $338,000 ($240/sqft)
• Median days on market: 141 d
• This list price: 20% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -3.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 92011

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 112
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,919 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$311 /mo · $3,735/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$823
• Net cashflow: $1,375

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,178

Max offer price $249,000

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,547	-5% $1,461	+0% $1,375	+5% $1,289	+10% $1,203
Rent	-10% $1,066	-5% $1,221	+0% $1,375	+5% $1,530	+10% $1,685
Rate	-1.0pp $1,501	-0.5pp $1,439	base $1,375	+0.5pp $1,311	+1.0pp $1,245

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7064 Whitewater St Carlsbad, CA	3.0	2.5	2050	$8,500	$4.15	93d	1	0.16mi
6923 Whitecap Dr Carlsbad, CA	3.0	2.0	1246	$5,250	$4.21	93d	1	0.39mi
7332 Escallonia Ct Carlsbad, CA	3.0	2.5	1869	$5,200	$2.78	8d	1	0.46mi
6872 Shearwaters Dr Carlsbad, CA	3.0	2.0	1246	$4,000	$3.21	48d	1	0.48mi
820 Windcrest Dr Carlsbad, CA	3.0	2.0	1404	$5,581	$3.98	67d	1	0.52mi
6863 Alderwood Dr Carlsbad, CA	3.0	2.5	1438	$4,400	$3.06	30d	1	0.73mi
6910 Peachtree Rd Unit 1546353P Carlsbad, CA	3.0	2.0	1399	$6,129	$4.38	66d	1	0.75mi
7431 Linden Ter Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	1180	$3,200	$2.71	29d	1	0.76mi
6811 Alderwood Dr Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	1292	$3,850	$2.98	93d	1	0.79mi
901 Caminito Estrada	2.0	1.5	1180	$3,800	$3.22	17d	1	0.80mi
916 Caminito Estrada Unit B Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	1188	$3,650	$3.07	93d	1	0.86mi
918 Caminito Estrada Unit E Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	1188	$3,600	$3.03	30d	1	0.90mi
6805 Briarwood Dr Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	1292	$3,850	$2.98	33d	1	0.96mi
6822 Briarwood Dr Carlsbad, CA	3.0	2.5	1443	$3,995	$2.77	29d	1	0.97mi
925 Wind Drift Dr Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.5	1110	$3,895	$3.51	93d	1	1.02mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $249,000 Active 242 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $249,000 Active 240 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $249,000 Active 239 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $249,000 Active 238 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $249,000 Active 237 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $249,000 Active 234 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $249,000 Active 233 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $249,000 Active 232 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $249,000 Active 231 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $249,000 Active 229 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $249,000 Active 227 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $249,000 Active 226 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $249,000 Active 225 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $249,000 Active 224 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $249,000 Active 223 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $249,000 Active 221 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $249,000 Active 220 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $249,000 Active 219 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $249,000 Active 218 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $249,000 Active 217 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $249,000 Active 216 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $249,000 Active 215 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $249,000 Active 214 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $249,000 Active 213 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $249,000 Active 212 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $249,000 Active 210 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $249,000 Active 209 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $249,000 Active 208 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $249,000 Active 207 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $249,000 Active 206 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $249,000 Active 205 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $249,000 Active 204 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $249,000 Active 203 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $249,000 Active 202 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $249,000 Active 201 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $249,000 Active 200 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $249,000 Active 199 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $249,000 Active 197 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $249,000 Active 195 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $249,000 Active 194 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $249,000 Active 191 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $249,000 Active 190 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $249,000 Active 189 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $249,000 Active 188 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $249,000 Active 186 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $249,000 Active 185 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $249,000 Active 182 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $249,000 Active 181 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,000 Active 180 DOM
50. 2026-06-04
    days on market $249,000 Active 177 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥82°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,030
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$3,735
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,762
• − Management: −$3,762
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable income: $13,333
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,200
• After-tax cash flow: $13,304/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,680–$23,040 screening

This home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has been updated with a remodeled kitchen and bathrooms, and has a good exterior and landscaping. The home is move-in ready and has a good resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping and curb appeal improvements — enhances curb appeal and outdoor living space ↑
• Both HVAC system upgrade — improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑
• Both exterior paint touch-up — refreshes the home's exterior and enhances curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

Zoned Schools

Elementary Pacific Rim Elementary Middle Aviara Oaks Middle High Carlsbad High

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carlsbad Unified
• NCES district ID: 0607500
• Math proficiency: 68% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $81,200
• Composite: 65.11/100
• National rank: #1068
• State rank: #87 of 1400 in CA

B Composite livability gradescore 78/100

Livability — Carlsbad

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #67
• US rank: #2526

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carlsbad, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,678,185 people
• City population: 114,373
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 23,190
• Household income: $159,235
• Rent vs Own: 36.0% rent · 64.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

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Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 4% German/W. Germanic 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.75%
• Current HPI: 399.8502
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.54%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-28.7% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $249,000 SDMLS
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $309,000 SDMLS
• 2025-12-10 Listed $339,000 SDMLS
• 2025-01-31 Sold (MLS) $312,500 SDMLS
• 2025-01-09 Pending — SDMLS
• 2025-01-09 Relisted — SDMLS
• 2025-01-01 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2024-09-01 Listed $333,000 SDMLS
• 2024-09-01 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2024-07-19 Price Changed $333,000 SDMLS
• 2024-04-17 Listed $349,000 SDMLS