16758 Kenmore Rd · Hamlin, NY 14476

$69,999

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,990 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1860 0.41 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Two story colonial with 1990 square feet for rent. This home includes 4 bedrooms, 1 and 1/2 baths, plus office or nursery space, with attached backyard deck, large front porch, and large kitchen. Pet acceptance will be determined by homeowner. Tenants to pay utilities.

Key facts

• 0.41 acre lot
• Built 1860
• Listed 20 days

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $69,999 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$344,270) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $516 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $69k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.1% vs local median 4.1% in Hamlin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#557 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: employment C-, crime D, schools F.
• Kendall Central School District (rural): math 74% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #117 of 590 in NY (top 20%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 28 units permitted in Orleans County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orleans County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.0% of price; built in 1860 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $68,949 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1860 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.60%
• DSCR: 2.41
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $344,270
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16873 Kenmore Rd	0.44mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,034 (+2%)	21mo	$351,168	$173	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.10×
• Total profit: $21,637
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.14×
• Total profit: $61,615
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14476

• Home prices YoY: -12.2%
• Active inventory: 9
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,448 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$232 /mo · $2,778/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $516

Break-even live

Break-even rent $795

Max offer price $69,999

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-01
   listed $69,999 Active
3. 2026-02-17
   soldstatus $74,500
4. 2014-08-27
   historical 269-char remark

   Show marketing remark (269 chars)

   Two story colonial with 1990 square feet for rent. This home includes 4 bedrooms, 1 and 1/2 baths, plus office or nursery space, with attached backyard deck, large front porch, and large kitchen. Pet acceptance will be determined by homeowner. Tenants to pay utilities.

5. 2014-02-28
   soldstatus $814 269-char remark

   Show marketing remark (269 chars)

   Two story colonial with 1990 square feet for rent. This home includes 4 bedrooms, 1 and 1/2 baths, plus office or nursery space, with attached backyard deck, large front porch, and large kitchen. Pet acceptance will be determined by homeowner. Tenants to pay utilities.

6. 2013-12-03
   listed $800 269-char remark

   Show marketing remark (269 chars)

   Two story colonial with 1990 square feet for rent. This home includes 4 bedrooms, 1 and 1/2 baths, plus office or nursery space, with attached backyard deck, large front porch, and large kitchen. Pet acceptance will be determined by homeowner. Tenants to pay utilities.

7. 2013-11-13
   listed $66,900
8. 2012-06-26
   listed $69,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,778 · $232/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,778 · $232/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,375
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$2,778
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,390
• − Management: −$1,390
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $5,509
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,322
• After-tax cash flow: $4,871/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kendall Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3616200
• Math proficiency: 74% ▲ 15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▲ 14.00%
• Median HH income: $56,456
• Composite: 62.48/100
• National rank: #689
• State rank: #117 of 590 in NY

Livability — Hamlin

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #557
• US rank: #10030

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D- Cost of living A Crime D Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,456

Population outlook (Orleans County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 39,123 people
• By 2030: 37,648 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 34,432 · -12.0%
• By 2050: 31,487 · -19.5%
• By 2075: 26,544 · -32.2%
• By 2100: 22,251 · -43.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Salvadoran 8%
• Common ancestry: Italian 8% Romanian 6% Iranian 6%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orleans

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.5) · D 29.8% · R 70.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.8pp toward R · 2008: -18.7pp · 2024: -40.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.5 2020: R+36.0 2016: R+43.4 2012: R+19.4 2008: R+18.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -39.63%
• Current HPI: 286.5955
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+0.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $69,999 UNYREIS
• 2026-02-17 Sold (Public Records) $74,500 Public Records
• 2014-08-27 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2014-02-28 Sold (MLS) $814 UNYREIS
• 2013-12-03 Listed $800 UNYREIS
• 2013-11-13 Listed $66,900 UNYREIS
• 2012-06-26 Listed $69,900 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,778 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.